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I think he is still planning on delivering promised refunds (call me an optimist).
I think he is not processing refunds in a very calculated way.
By not being proactive on delivering refunds he is discouraging other customers from requesting refunds.
Chip buyers would rather have late chips than a promise of a refund that doesn't deliver. At least you can minimize your losses with chips.
With no refund, you have that... nothing.
My assumption then (based on the first line)... is that refunds won't be processed in a significant way until the majority of the latest chip orders have been shipped.
Unfortunately I think your logic is spot on. I do think Yifu is a good guy and would not have the capacity to not make good on his business dealings, but you raise the point that if all of a sudden Avalon starts issuing refunds for B3, the chip buyers are going to start making demands as well.
Either way, going forward it's clear that a large majority of the supply of hash rate will emanate from a few key players (think ASICMiner/Giga/Lab/IceDrill/etc), and there will be less hobbyists running heat swamps in their homes. The USB-ASIC miners dating the Radeons are a huge boon for people who want to support the network cheaply, without any grandiose ideas of making a lot of money. Lady luck has been known to struck.
Anyways, I will be relieved when the refund is finally processed.
Yifu please respond and let us know the status of our refunds... it's been a long time now and it's a lot of money for us to be waiting and wishing on.
