The only true enemy of Bitcoin is blind activism of politicians who want to do something, as in anything. That's not the kind of thing to start a focused war, now is it?

I think the reason for blood will be when too many people have too extreme expectations and lose money. Possibly, money they didn't own in the first place; funds borrowed for speculation.

But a war against a currency? Mmh, maybe, but I don't see it yet. Nobody really hates them, they're just another kind of asset. If people find ways to track drug dealers in the block chain, which might very well happen, there's not all that much to be angry about concerning BTCs.

Come on, stop making threads just because someone buys up where there are no orders around.

Nobody knows what'll happen, but a rally now would obviously not be sane. It would mean people deciding to buy at >19 after standing idly when prices dropped to 16, and a day before, to 10.

The insane won't be able to set prices for long, that much is certain. And I don't think many people would want to sit on BTC if their value is based on such behavior -- so expect some pressure from above when this kind of thing happens.

Those who bought at 16, at least, have quite an incentive to dump it on the LOL RALLY pusher's heads the moment it stops. I don't think they're the only ones.

Let's make this realistic.

I'd like to buy one of the new AM3+ Asus Sabertooth mainboards, along with a befitting black edition Phenom and 1833 CL7 RAM with at least 5 year warranty, preferably from the same merchant, shipped to Germany speedily at competitive prices.

Can Bitcoin do that right now? I doubt it. There are a few dealers who can fulfill my request, but none accepts BTC! I would have to use some middle man magic, and nobody feels like doing that.

That's the thing. It's like saying Android has a good security model -- it's all good in theory, but the reality is: there's still a lot to do.

Anyone else just enjoying the show?

A crash's bust phase; that may be a once-in-a-lifetime experience; and I'm actually in that market! (Or was.) I kinda saw this coming, so I picked some befitting music in advance. Since this thread is pretty much pointless and just asking how Bitcoiners feel about the speculator's game, here are my two favorite track picks for this day:



Unavoidable with my nickname, it had to be Avantasia's "The Seven Angels" for the volume stagnation phase on the "apparent return to normal" secondary spike.

They claim to know, "Holy Lord, it's over!"


Now, it just has to be Ayreon's "The Sixth Extinction" again and again. Both parts just fit awesomely; first the part where madness destroys everything, and then, the finale with the return to the Forever. For me, that's the price finally returning to a value where I feel safe buying coins to use them for trade.

I can't even count the quotes that fit this awesomely.



Anyways. Got carried away. Anyone else having a great time, just watching this unfold, feeling like being in some great event?

Follow me home, complete the circle!

Desperate fools trying to find excuses how they were cheated into actually losing money in speculating on a bubble.

Yes, you can actually lose. And he sees his enemy; just that there is no need for anyone to control. The posters will spam like that on their own when they get to see such a massive event live.

I want to select multiple!

First, I came to buy in cheap and early, so I can use them later when shops appear. But then, I started doing complex speculations because everybody was going batshit insane.

But in the end, I'd like to use it for paying friends on Android phones once that works; and use it for payments to Japan and Canada. And I might mine as soon as I get Southern Islands Gfx cards -- I like to use more components of my well-cooled 24/7 computer.



So, basically, I like it for many reasons. Too bad everybody went nuts lately. It might be years until this is actually decently usable... I'm keeping watch for changes, it appears the security hole war is coming up next.

It's all about whether some large money influx changes things or a bust occurs. In the latter case, you won't get much buying volume on there, and flattening fluctuations turns into desperate attempts to sell before the trend pushes prices further down. Since some people rightfully fear that happening, nobody really cares about temporary spread enough to fix that. Or maybe everything just happens too fast.

You are experiencing chaos by a force stronger than day-trading; stabilization takes time and a usable estimate on price. Just watch it unfold; it should normalize later.

If this becomes a panic, you won't be able to tell at all what will happen.

Why these overly difficult models?

It's simply over-speculation, no matter where the funds originate. Take something that has current intrinsic market value of a few cent, then talk about how it must be worth thousands in the future, generating arbitrary price jumps. This is a young, high-risk thing and everybody bets on some magical super-fast smooth way up. If that is being done for too long, market dynamics ensure someone gets hurt.



We should consider ourselves lucky if price comes down now, stabilizing things for Bitcoin traders. Imagine prices would have gone above 100 USD, with a massive hype fed by newcomers only, then running dry in days afterwards, generating a catastrophic crash! We do not want that to happen!

No, I didn't. But if this keeps mirroring the NASDAQ Echo crash, I'll be shaking my head at those throwing their money away.

Also, there's a long way between "stable" and "People changing their mind on a factor 2 scale on a daily basis". I've never seen such a thing before.

Determining inflation. This is a very complicated problem, with many opinions on it.

Some people like to gather a large set of different goods which were similarly easy to produce in past and present, and then compare e.g. a median price. This is a method I would use.

But I am not an expert on this. Apparently, many institutions, especially governments, have an incentive to construct flawed methods of determining real value and thereby inflation -- to be able to hide it.

I know you all have seen enough of these threads, but aren't some people trying to make things look to simple? Nobody is concerned? Uptrend, all good?

We just had clear proof that there are people who don't buy below 11 USD, but buy above 24, just as long as they're doing both in-trend! Please let this fact sink in for a second! This is pure insanity! "Defies sound economic practices" is really an understatement on what happened these last days.



Something is majorly messed up with this "market state", and the past fluctuations do not suffice to remove the root of the problem. Now don't tell me some magical manipulator managed to over-sell every sane person in the world. There is something wrong here, and it's not a minor fluctuation, nor did its (admittedly insanely high) volume suffice to clean up against future trouble.

I firmly believe there is a major disturbance ahead. Maybe it won't start this very moment, maybe it will -- but if it happens later, the chaos will scale up with the market size. Whichever case, unless a majority starts applying more sophisticated models, there is no way to avoid it now.

lol... 47968 times 50 BTC? The completely unspent coins are massive compared to the amount traded!

Remember that volume shows frequently traded coins multiple times. I wonder why so many coins aren't used at all -- and what must happen to get them moving.

That is EXACTLY what happened before previous busts. The height of matches, too; it served to burn up the remaining inflow from the hype in the past.

How come everybody is so certain of this working out? Hm. Maybe I'm just too pessimistic... still, I can't rely on some general mood for my own speculation.

I think that is only true if Bitcoin manages to play that card. If the bursting bubble scares off a big part of the newcomers, the market is almost a closed ecosystem, and I see no reason for it to behave differently from an old market, just accelerated.

In fact, there is a difference: Bitcoin has no floor of real value to fall to, apart from the scarce coins. But they largely haven't been traded yet! There's no net that catches the price if things go bad, but easily a factor 10 down in value if a larger fraction of the coins appear to be traded for money.

Okay, I can't tell the future or anything; but it can happen!

We are looking at something extremely similar to past major crashes right now. Look at NASDAQ Echo and DJIA 1929, just massively accelerated. Yet, Bitcoin has the exceptional property of being small, so a massive increase in USD volume might still catch things.

In a major crash, the bubble popping is often followed by the bust; people who don't believe in the crash yet being utterly overrun by accumulating sales, and volatility ridding the market of those causing the fluctuations.

What do you think, are we about to see a bust?



(I think we will. There was too much mania, the market will now be purged of maniacs. But that's just me, maybe I'm wrong.)

You act as if the crash is over. I give you a 50/50 that it has only begun.

Look at NASDAQ Echo and DJIA 1929!

If the inflow of money is reduced by current events, you are all about to see what a bust is. I would call the current state the most super-critical we have had so far.

If people do this again, they must love risk more than anything.

I think Bitcoin will only be usable after the speculation maniacs have lost their money. Speculation is nice, mania isn't. I'd very much like using 1 USD Bitcoins again, as those are decently stable, unlike something based on a supercritical exponential price bubble.

Micro-Burst? Hardcore Bust? I hope it's the latter, because the current madness is not good for the real Bitcoin economy, which is still tiny and fragile. Having to cope with massive factors in price in a matter of days will not help!

I like the troll threads~
I like the monkey heads~

Boom de yada Burst de yada~

Seriously, why did you buy in a price bubble so obvious it's screaming?

You can't talk people into doing as you wish. Think for yourself and watch it unfold, it might rise or fall with near-equal probabilities at most times. No talk or organizing will change the path of the market easily.

I personally have multiple scenarios, one that is quite likely includes a blood-and-ashes bust way into single-digit value. I can't tell whether it will happen, I'm just saying it can happen at double-digit probability.

But there also are possibilities to a continuing hype fed by more money that could see absurdly high prices again -- I would tread with caution if that happens.