but I only saw like 700...
+1. Maybe it was a glitch? |
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Notice how we jumped right back up to where we started. There is buying support at this level. I saw hundreds of BTC sold in that mini-panic, and it was absorbed quickly. Now we are right back at the same price. This is no bear market. This is a bull market waiting for the breakout.
tell this to that wall's owner  |
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in the USA we have real freedom.
LOL |
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Guys, listen to OP, he tells the truth. Seriuosly.
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I completely agree with OP.
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Hi Bitfinex team. I have a problem with your API ("is_hidden" parameter). When I send a request to your server (open an order), something like this: I receive an error: {"message":"Key is_hidden should be a bool."}Okay, "bool" should mean true/false. I corrected my program and sent this: {
...
"is_hidden": false
}
And your server sends me the following responce: {"message":"Key is_hidden was not present."}WTF? I tried also: "is_hidden": "false" and "is_hidden": "0" (as a string, with quotes) - not working. Please tell me how this parameter must look. Thanks! |
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I'm not buying while it's valid:
I guess we are trading on different time frames completely. Probably. I usually open long/short positions for weeks at least. |
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I'm not buying while it's valid:  |
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A primary wave never stands alone, even in consolidation. this could be an A, but much more likely it is a primary.
If I see a primary wave where I expect one because of fundamentals, I'll forget the TA. Im NOT going to buy high to a lagging indicator, we can see with our own eyes.
"buy high" is somewhere around $1000 |
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also, buying the fifth wave is not a hold position, as usually it is 100% retraced. I will be shorting if it plays out clearly. I imagine it could be catalysed by the last of the chinese news - say Huobi shutting down.
If the fifth wave 100% retraces, then we won't break the 200-day EMA by it. And it would mean we still won't break the downtrend line. So, there are still no confirmations of an uptrend to me. I still have EW counts that tell me a possibility of the downtrend continuation within the next 3 weeks to the possible bottom at ~325. While this count is not invalidated, I will rather sit tight and see what happens. Every EW counts should be confirmed by traditional TA and important EMAs. |
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Sounds strange to me. we have a leading indicator, but the EMA is telling you to buy the fifth wave. better idea, look to short the fifth of the fifth wave and make an absolute killing.
200-day EMA is a barrier which is hard to break. Once we break it, we won't dive below it anymore soon. So, if we break 200-day EMA, we'll have an extended 5th wave. Why not buy it if it's extended? Or if we fail to break the 200-day EMA, we'll possibly break it by the 3rd wave of higher level. Why not buy the 3rd wave then? |
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Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?
Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days. Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day. But now I'm not sure we will continue going up. why not? I rely on EMAs for confirmations  Hmm, the weekend pump continues. That gives us some hope for an uptrend. |
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Primary wave took 1.5 days to complete, third wave took 2.5 days to complete. how many days will fifth wave take to complete?
Probably 2.5+1.5 = 4 days or (2.5+4.5)*1.618 = 6.5 days. Or: 2.5-1.5 = 1 day. But now I'm not sure we will continue going up. |
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Nice weekend pump  Btw, the wave 2 lasted 35 hours and the wave 4 lasted 70 hours (35*2). So it seems our impulse counts are correct. But I expect a runup to 700 (not 540-560) during this wave. If we fail to break 200-day and 100-day EMA, we are not reversed. |
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yes, laws of physics play out every where, and they are reflected on the charts. but I would rather know the fundamentals. am impulse might precede a third wave, or it might be the end of a cycle, or it might be an A wave. only with fundamentals can we know which one it is.
Agreed, but you should rather know both the fundamentals and the waves. And you should know all possibilities for the future waves. That would allow you to define possibilities for future fundamental events. |
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yes herd psychology makes EW robust, and is just as important fundamentally as GDP for example. but which piece of information would you rather have - the company that you own stock in is about to burn down, or the company that you hold stock in has possibly completed a fifth wave?
I would want to know both. By the way, I want to explain you how wave fundamentals work. For example, you have a business. Your company becomes successful. What is a fifth wave of your company's success? Durig this wave you are delusional, you are shouting "WOW!! Such success!! We are the greatest! No one can beat us!! Wow!" At this time your competitors (for example) are watching you and getting evil or annoyed or planning something bad for you. At one moment (when Fib timer triggers) they decide to start real actions against you. Something *bad* for your company is happening and stock of your company burns down. Does Bitcoin have "competitors"/enemies who are just still "watching" now? Of course: banks, governments, hackers etc. Does Bitcoin have "holders" who are shouting "Wow! Bitcoin is successful! F*ck you bankers!" - of course. I think it's time to trigger "the Fib timer" soon. Thanks to Bitcoin Foundation that does great lobby to "soften the blow" in the future. |
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I disagree again, waves reflect fundamentals, they are synonimous, this is not magic or superficial. The reason why news seems to often coincide with junctures is because when the market is at extreme junctures the market is vulnerable to news. news items come every day, bad and good, but most are not significant enough for long term effect, unless the market is positioned for reversal. there is also a conspiracy component, but the waves are still only a reflection of the fundamentals/insider behaviour.
I can burn down a car factory at will, at the throw of a dice, and the stock in that company will crash for certain if it results in destruction. I will cause a wave, and the wave will reflect the destruction.
the arguments that we can predict presidential elections with EW is part of the social mood feature, sentiment.
I would say waves == fundamentals. What is Fib time? It's a timer in your brain. Timer for responce/reaction to events. Every fundamental event is a someone's reaction to someone's action. So, our own life is a big cycle which has waves that act according to Fib time (a timer in our or someone else's brain). So we can predict lots of fundamental events using this method. Because every event is a human's reaction to something. |
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I disagree..... EW analysis does not permit us to ignore fundamentals. Bitcoin is expanding at an exponential rate. It cannot stall or speculative weight will damage it.
I would say 20% max of a 266 retest.
Elliott waves are much more than just a price movement. I'm pretty sure that fundamentals follow waves, and not waves follow fundamentals. It means you can predict real life events using EW. Example: before New Year I analyzed RTS index (Russian Trade System - main economics indicator). I saw the picture: a big crash in 2008-2009 (economic crisis), and then a little growth and stabilization. I assumed that the crash could be a wave A, following growth is a wave B and according to Fib time there must be another crash in spring of 2014 (wave C). Russian economy looked pretty stable in late 2013, so I assumed that there would be some bad events which could cause another wave of crisis in Russia. What happened then? Russian/Ukrainian conflict which was followed by US/EU economic sanctions (import of lots of products became limited), and then RTS index and Russian ruble fell to 2009 lows. How did I know about possible Russian/Ukrainian conflict and American/European sanctions? I just knew that something *bad* could happen, nothing more. |
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well fr33d0miz3r, it's a possibility, but Im not going to consider that analysis without a fundamental reason. Bitcoin is not an idle currency, and I believe that if it stalls it may collapse for good under speculative weight. the fundamentals say this is developing at an exponential pace, and I have to be bullish in the next 6 months. 266 retest is possible, but very unlikely if bitcoin is in fact on a path to succeed.
..... seems like we might see wave V unfold soon. though it will take days...
Right now we have 50/50 chances for $266 retest and for going up right now. It depends on which EMA we will break soon... I think sideways action for 1-1.5 years (final motive wave + long flat correction) would be healthy for bitcoin before the great runup to $1M. Because right now there are too many "early adopters" holding tons of cheap bitcoins who are too greedy and tempted to cash out at prices between $400-$1200, and there are "smart money" people who know this and want to buy as many coins as possible below $1000. I have corrected my count a bit. I think this is more possible:  It means we can have the top at $1600-$1800 this summer and then the bottom of the upcoming correction will depend on our current bottom ($340 or $260 if we go lower now). |
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Another long-term possibility:  |
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