If you are not in a pool, you get 50 or 0.  If you are in a pool, you'd probably have a few by now.

The tabbed sections don't work on Chrome for Windows.  You can't click on Heads Up or Regular - you only see the Popular tables.

Past performance does not predict the future.

Otherwise at noon, I would think it would be 4000 degrees on earth by next year.

Eventually greed will set in, and people will begin to sell faster than buyers come in.  And then the fun ensues.

Not necessarily.  If too many people bet on one side, I bet new betters would take the other.  So you make your bets early enough that it evens out by people trying to get a "better" deal, then it doesn't look suspicious.

Don't mean to be paranoid, just seen The Sting.

It might be better to post estimates independently first just to make sure we don't bias each other.

I definitely consider my estimates to be a wild-ass guess.  However, it was pretty remarkable that my numbers came out to be almost exactly the mtgox price at the time, it was quite scary.

This is way too easy to scam.  Figure out sex.  Have some "anonymous" people bet on the winning side.  Profit.

I'm sure you are probably a reputable guy and all, but something like this where insider knowledge completely crushes the bet is super easy to scam.

Just look at what electronics manufacturers do.  They have to deal with this problem all the time.  The idea that you just buy a fixed cost and that's it is highly unrealistic as well.  A lot of your costs would move with the value (electricity and labor get cheaper, etc...).  If the company does not spend all of its money initially and has reserves, they do just fine.

But if a company is making less revenue, then it's value probably drops.  Unless it was already anticipated and priced in.

Obviously it is rough estimates.

I picked a bunch of various possible endpoints for BitCoin that weren't based on speculation.  They ranged from "be as significant as gold" to "totally worthless".  I of course had a few points in between.  I then tried to come up with the likelihood that each scenario is reached.  I tried to be somewhat pessimistic on it.  Multiply probability by value, and you get a rough value.  Then discount the longshot scenarios to account for the variance (I wouldn't risk $3,000 for a 1 in a million chance of $3 billion with no other possibility, for example).  Sum it up.  I based each scenario on actual value.  I based each likelihood based on pulling things out of my ass.

So yeah, it's not going to be exact, and have a huge margin of error.  But to invest serious money into something, putting in *some* effort is better than hoping and praying.

How does that matter?  You don't need to sell many to drive things down a LOT.  Once that happens, maybe those who "aren't really interested" start thinking "crap, I could have bought a new car, now I have enough to buy new shoes".  If enough people are true believers and believe they can sell a few thousand for $200 next year, they'll hold even in a big drop, and even buy enough to bring the price back up.  It's hard to predict where things will go because it's so much psychology.

If the majority of holders got in when it was dirt cheap, then you'll see a lot less panic since they aren't really losing anything (even though they are).  The people who bought at $2 panic when it hits $3, $5 when it hits $6, etc...  People tend to be very terrified of losing money on something.  They'll hold onto losers far past their entry point just to try to break even.

But I do suspect that the holders of BTC will hold on longer than the general public in a panic since it's not really money to them but points in a video game.  And due to the younger demographics, they don't have actual obligations to pay for things, so the money is not as valuable (it's easier to risk $10,000 for $10 million on a longshot if you don't have mouths to feed, a mortgage to pay, etc...).  Add in a bit of irrationality in how high it may go (replace all money in the world), and you have even less of a panic.  The cult mentality actually helps a lot during any kind of panic that may occur.

I actually did some calculations and based on fundamentals and future values, I put a fundamental value at about $5/BTC.  It's super rough, so anywhere in the $2.50-10 range is probably within reason, but most outcomes are either valueless or very valuable, so it's a big risk.

It will also take an even smaller sell to drive it below $5.  We are betting on how much fortitude those with a ton of bitcoins have.

Not if they sold them at $.70 each.

Then clearly you either really like Civ5, or don't understand basic math.

Next stop $5.

Bubble is bursting.  It's going to be tricky getting support if people don't have cash at mtgox.  It takes a few days to get there, but if anyone wants to panic sell, it's super easy to get bitcoins there quickly.

If this drop continues any more, it will be interesting seeing the fortitude of the big holders to see if they unload or if they hold through a potentially ugly crash.

None of the people you mention have their wealth evaporate due to BitCoin.  Wealth is not just in currency but in actual material things that are valuable to people.  Having a company that is capable of producing a lot of things people want is valuable.  Having a lot of property is valuable.  It doesn't matter what it's enumerated in.

Some of this wealth is in currency, but the majority of it isn't.  The people that hold a lot of currency tend to be the poorer people and the elderly.  They don't need Bitcoin to sell insurance, sell software, sell databases, manage hotels, play golf, sell ads on a social network, etc...  The bankers do get hurt, of course.

Before anything of that level, you'll see a thousand clones.  Some will survive, some won't.  Geeks typically find something first.  Businessmen find something geeks created and actually find a way to make money on it by getting it to the general public.  The odds that anyone ever gets a mere billion dollars of wealth from Bitcoin has to be several million to 1 against it.  It's nice to dream, but it's also good to be grounded in reality.

Based on what?  Lots of financial gurus, very little justification.

It's very hard to predict a market built on mania and speculation rather than fundamentals.  Could be $20, could be $50, could be $4.

A better play is to get an option contract to buy next week at $4.  How much would you pay for the right to buy at $4 next week per BTC?  If it's under $4, you could decline the option and just be out the money you spent on the option.

Every time I go there, I think "why does it take so long to move money into Mt Gox?"

Go to mtgox.  Have them transfer you something called "Dollars".  Use those at the store.