This is my falsifiable hypothesis: if the 7-day average of the number of transactions excluding popular addresses as calculated by Blockchain.info exceeds 76394, e.g. reaches 80000, then bitcoin price will be rallying into a new bubble.
Among the ways this notion could be wrong is that transaction volume is now including more bitcoin tumblers to provide anonymity, or some other sort of non-commerce transactions, not filtered by Blockchain.info's simple algorithm.
[...]
Or, alternatively, Metcalfe's law doesn't hold for Bitcoin (it's "Metcalfe's conjecture" in reality anyway, as an economic statement), or, alternatively alternatively, Metcalfe's law does hold for the Bitcoin network on a long enough time line, but is a poor predictor for shorter term phenomena such as a the start of a rally. |
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For example, Litecoin, the second-largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, offers a more complex problem to solve and is therefore more difficult to "mine," or create.  |
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I believe others have suggested this already, in any case, adding my vote:
If not moving to a dedicated forum right away, could we at least move to a moderated thread now and lock this one for good?
The community in general & the dev team, have shown to be more than receptive to constructive criticism and debate in numerous occasions throughout this thread, but the noise from trolls & fuds'ters is getting to be too much really.
Yeah I agree this latest flood of trolling is a bit much, worse than we've ever seen before. If it doesn't subside soon we will probably do that, but lets give it a few days and see how things go. A lot is happening right now... Support from my side. I'm usually extremely skeptical of self-moderated threads, but the level of trolling, anti-trolling and anti-meta-trolling in here is a bit too much even for my taste. I agree, best to wait a few days, let things settle down, then re-open the main threads that have historically been the focal point of the trolls as self-moderated. I'd personally like to see you (smooth) as the mod in that case. I've already seen in the speculation thread that you're fair in moderating, and don't remove critical comments, only those that are completely off-topic or obvious trolling attempts. |
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It has nothing to do with the newly mined coins. Really annoying hearing people spout that nonsense.
Like, totally! I mean, how on earth could an increase of the monetary base by about 14% this year lead to a lower evaluation per unit if insufficient speculative or usage-driven capital enters the market to counter that inflation. What a preposterous throught. It didn't happen with the usd denominated bonds, so why should it, in bitcoin? Already answered, now in bold. (The same old disclaimer as always: no, I'm not a "Bitcoin skeptic", or "perma bear". Just pointing out a possible, quite likely in fact, reason for the long price decline we're seeing.) |
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It has nothing to do with the newly mined coins. Really annoying hearing people spout that nonsense.
Like, totally! I mean, how on earth could an increase of the monetary base by about 14% this year lead to a lower evaluation per unit if insufficient speculative or usage-driven capital enters the market to counter that inflation. What a preposterous throught. |
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Why are people still seriously arguing with ShroomsKit?
He made it clear in the past few months that he's not really interested in an open discussion, just like our resident Brazilian CS prof, but with the difference being that ShroomsKit likes to randomly flip between beartroll and bulltroll once in a while.
I actually think he's doing it on purpose, continuing where the greatest trolls of our time, like proudhon, left off.
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Thanks for the answers  My point isn't so much efficiency, it's just that I do note my mac being less responsive, so if it doesn't really do much and it's a bit of a nuisance, I'd rather only do the mining via ec2 alone. Another question: since I don't control the dev's address, and I have no way of seeing what is inside, is there any way to make sure I do actually transfer mining income into their control, i.e. I didn't fuck something up in the setup? |
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Complete mining newbie reporting in, with some questions. Decided to dabble in xmr mining a bit, to support the network, and put any hypothetical earnings into the dev address, as per smooth's suggestion. Getting started on Amazon's EC2 as well, but also wanted to see if I can put my Macbook to use... here's the result:  I might as well turn it off, right? I'm adding about 40 H/s, which is for all practical purposes negligible, correct? |
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Site down.
Any alternatives?
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This is a first in Bitcoin history. Not even 2011 managed to go that far :/  Before I'm accused of trolling: No, I don't think Bitcoin is dead. Far from it. But in all likelihood, it'll take a long time to get out of this ditch again. EDIT: week not closed yet, and I use hl2 as input not the traditional close, but it's pretty much the same picture either way. |
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Textbook fake 6h macD "recover" after a dump - probably retest of 350~ range is coming soon(ish)
Agreed. This is what a pretty decisive turnaround looked like at the April bottom on the 6h:  And this is what he have now:  We need some major buys coming in on Monday to turn this one around. Not impossible, but not very likely either, in my opinion. |
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If I were a whale, I'd be careful with that 1.5k wall at 400... some other whale might be tempted to take it out in one bite, for a slippage free chunk of $400 coins.
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Most technical analysis is completely worthless. The stuff you will find with a quick Google search will lose you money. People say it is different with BTC, but it is not. If you really want to be profitable, learn to program, and learn to back test your strategies to find out how they would have performed in the past. All of the basic TA stuff I've backtested, with horrendous returns. Back testing is not a sure-fire thing either. Once you get good enough at programming, you will learn to data-snoop and void your back-tests and maybe convince yourself that you did good. Look at cryptotrader.org. Tons of strategies have great back-tests but do not perform in the forward. It's probably because people are datasnooping for the "Best" strategy given the historical data and finding it. It's easy with computers, and it's a costly mistake. People who do not understand datasnooping or how easily computers can help us do it, look at things like epic back tests and think something amazing has been found. At the end of the day, day trading will almost *always* lose you money. Do not look at it as "profitable." Look at it as a hobby only. Here's my longest running account with no funding changes from December 2013 to today: http://seaofbtc.com/harrisonkinsley/honeybadger/client/1 It will take a while to load. That's done by automated day trading, and it's done using a mindless grid-strategy that anyone could do by hand, it's not high frequency. I just choose to automate it so I don't have to sit there all day and don't miss any trades. Bitcoin is volatile, so it works, and I've significantly beat the market, but there are plenty of totally possible events that could leave me far behind market performance never to recover again. The truly safest strategy is hold, in cold storage. Trading on exchanges brings in a lot of risk. Not just price anymore, nope, we have to worry about actual exchanges just plain disappearing. Not bad, especially for a fully automated system. If I read that right your account is up ~40% in BTC terms since Jan 1st (from 52 to 72). USD account value is down, but obviously less severe than the comparison buy & hold. I don't know what to make of your blanket statement "most technical analysis is completely worthless". If you mean the random, sloppy TA article published in a crypto blog, trying to predict the price for next month based on a trendline drawn from 2011 to today, I agree. If, however, you dismiss more or less all discretionary trading, and the TA around it as useless, then you're most likely wrong. Say, TA as presented in this book, described and defined with a minimum amount of rigor and seriousness. Personally, with a discretionary, and for the most part, non-backtestable combination strategy of mean reversion, momentum following, and a dash of predictive analysis (volume analysis, fib, and a bit of Elliot Wave - though I'm not particularly good at the last one), my account is up in BTC terms since Jan 1 by about a factor of 3.5. And as I've seen evidence for more than once: I'm not even really particularly good at it - I know several traders outperforming me by a large margin. The real keyword here is: risk control. Without it, you're just a gambler. |
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I think we may have hit the bottom.
re-up the pic to imgur, maybe? |
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Aaand, added OP to my ignore list. I suggest you all do the same.
Very strongly considering it, but he is just above my retardation cutoff. At least he uses whole sentences and real words. I used to have the same principle. Only "full retards" went on my ignore list. But then newbie jail was abandoned. And one fallling sockpuppet after another appeared. And shroomskit's passive-aggressive rants during. every. fucking. drop. really got on my nerves. So I started handing out ignores more liberally. Troll, smart or not, goes on my ignore. I make one exception, for jorgetrollfi, because he's our resident anti-Bitcoin celebrity. Xiao here went on my ignore about a week ago - for manipulative book talking at its finest. I think removal of newbie jail has worsened the forum considerably. How is it a good thing for the majority of posters to have to /ignore a lots of new posters on a regular basis? Casual visitors or newbies to the site also have to contend with a significant number of book talking troll manipulation threads like this one spamming the front page, and drowning out anything of meaning or value. Blitz: perhaps you could look into reinstituting newbie jail? Problem is, xiao isn't a newbie. He just decided to take an influence on the market, and posts accordingly now. Even possible that he sold his account. Doesn't really matter though what the reason is: my point is, newbie jail doesn't help for cases like this (and stupid as this thread is, it doesn't warrant deletion either). But agreed on the request to get back newbie probation. There's a petition in the 'meta' forum asking for exactly that, but it looks like theymos (who's realistically the one to address in this matter) doesn't see the need to do so :/ |
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Aaand, added OP to my ignore list. I suggest you all do the same.
Very strongly considering it, but he is just above my retardation cutoff. At least he uses whole sentences and real words. I used to have the same principle. Only "full retards" went on my ignore list. But then newbie jail was abandoned. And one fallling sockpuppet after another appeared. And shroomskit's passive-aggressive rants during. every. fucking. drop. really got on my nerves. So I started handing out ignores more liberally. Troll, smart or not, goes on my ignore. I make one exception, for jorgetrollfi, because he's our resident anti-Bitcoin celebrity. Xiao here went on my ignore about a week ago - for manipulative book talking at its finest. |
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X-post from the Monero [ANN] thread. Not technically on the topic of speculation, but addressed in particular at speculators, so I feel it is permissible to post it in here, considering the target audience of this thread... If you are like me (the nasty investor/speculator type, who never bothered to get into mining :D), but you feel maybe now would be a good time to add that extra bit of hashing power to secure the Monero network (or at least make an attack slightly more expensive), then maybe this step-by-step guide to set up XMR mining via Amazon cloud computing might be interesting for you as well. Re-posted with friendly permission of the guide's author, jwinterm: (Requires Amazon EC2 account, hooked up to a credit card. Registration is easy, btw.) So here goes (assuming you have your ec2 account all set up): 1) Click on EC2, and then click on Spot Requests under Instances on left sidebar. 2) Click Request Spot Instances blue button near top, and then click Community AMIs and search for XMRminer. Select XMRminer2. 3) For Instance Type, select GPU instances g2.2xlarge, click next and set your maximum price (kind of expensive now, need to do like $0.09 per hour, used to be more like $0.06). 4) Click Review and Launch and then click Launch. At this point you need to setup your ssh keys. I did this a while ago, so I don't remember exact details, but it should be pretty straightforward. Let me know if you have issues. 5) Make yourself a cup of tea and wait 30-120 seconds while your instance is prepared. 6) You'll need to ssh into your instance. On Linux you just put your ssh keys in ~/.ssh and set permissions for 400 (I think), and if you ssh from that folder, that's all you need to do. I think on Windows, using Putty, you need to maybe convert the key to putty's format using an extra putty tool. Let me know if you need additional help with this. 7) Click on Instances in the left sidebar, and you should see a g2.2xlarge instance with green circle that says running. Click that and then click Connect at the top, and it should give you your IP address to connect to with some instructions. 8) On Linux your ssh command should look like: ssh -i aws1.pem ubuntu@54.191.192.111 Use ubuntu as user not root. 9) Maybe it's more like 180-300 seconds. Drink some tea while waiting. 10) When it prompts you to permanently add key, click "yes". 11) Now, you need to edit cpustart.sh and gpustart.sh in your home directory using either vi or nano, unless you want to mine to my XMR address ;) It looks like if you want to mine directly to exchange, just replace my XMR address in both files with YourExchangeXMRAddress.YourExchangePaymentID. 12) You need to run two commands, one to make gpuminer work, and other to make cpuminer much faster: sudo ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sudo sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24 13) I just made another script called start.sh to launch both miners at once, and it seems to work. So do: then vi or nano start.sh and add: #!/bin/bash
screen /home/ubuntu/cpustart.sh
screen /home/ubuntu/gpustart.sh then: and then launch with: You need the screen so that when you disconnect your ssh session, the miners keep mining. That's it. You can disconnect and both miners should be hashing away. You can ssh back in and run and you should see minerd and ccminer listed in the processes somewhere near the bottom. If you want to launch a shitload of instances, then obviously you want to automate this process and not do it manually every time. In this case, you need to make sure you edit the files so that they have your XMR address and not mine, and create the start.sh script in home directory, then edit the rc.local file by doing: and add the following lines: ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24
screen /home/ubuntu/start.sh This way, as soon as the instance boots up, it should autolaunch the miners. I haven't tried this final automation part (as I don't normally launch a shitload of instances), but I think this should work, and I'm gonna verify it now. Now, go back to your EC2 console, right-click on the g2.2xlarge instance in your Instances window, and select Create Image. This will sever your connection and cause a reboot, but you will now have your own image/AMI that you can launch 10s or 100s or 1000s of, just by entering however many instances you want when filling out your spot request form. I just tried the rc.local thing, and it seems to auto-launch ccminer and minerd :) If you feel like leaving a tip for jwinterm, those are his addresses: BTC: 1Gy2BQKMVjvWdRnG3Ktwm2cXdEyL8ZdqvE XMR: 49jkaP1xDZrEYaWxtoToPzitbQh6Z7Vv8c3MwtP49wsZhJUR5VojrxcKgb76zT8XRU5AAWHVptx4RgxgLb5fX7iM2vBSKXA (ask him for confirmation that those are his addresses, if you want to be sure) Hope the above is useful, at least for some of you. I know it was for me :) Oda |
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Let's just ignore the more obvious trolls, like bobsurplus. Their content-free posts speak for themselves, in my opinion. There's no need to defend Monero against their empty "objections". Okay, guys and girls. If you are like me (the nasty investor/speculator type, who never bothered to get into mining :D), but you feel maybe now would be a good time to add that extra bit of hashing power to secure the Monero network (or at least make an attack slightly more expensive), then maybe this step-by-step guide to set up XMR mining via Amazon cloud computing might be interesting for you as well. Re-posted with friendly permission of the guide's author, jwinterm: (Requires Amazon EC2 account, hooked up to a credit card. Registration is easy, btw.) So here goes (assuming you have your ec2 account all set up): 1) Click on EC2, and then click on Spot Requests under Instances on left sidebar. 2) Click Request Spot Instances blue button near top, and then click Community AMIs and search for XMRminer. Select XMRminer2. 3) For Instance Type, select GPU instances g2.2xlarge, click next and set your maximum price (kind of expensive now, need to do like $0.09 per hour, used to be more like $0.06). 4) Click Review and Launch and then click Launch. At this point you need to setup your ssh keys. I did this a while ago, so I don't remember exact details, but it should be pretty straightforward. Let me know if you have issues. 5) Make yourself a cup of tea and wait 30-120 seconds while your instance is prepared. 6) You'll need to ssh into your instance. On Linux you just put your ssh keys in ~/.ssh and set permissions for 400 (I think), and if you ssh from that folder, that's all you need to do. I think on Windows, using Putty, you need to maybe convert the key to putty's format using an extra putty tool. Let me know if you need additional help with this. 7) Click on Instances in the left sidebar, and you should see a g2.2xlarge instance with green circle that says running. Click that and then click Connect at the top, and it should give you your IP address to connect to with some instructions. 8) On Linux your ssh command should look like: ssh -i aws1.pem ubuntu@54.191.192.111 Use ubuntu as user not root. 9) Maybe it's more like 180-300 seconds. Drink some tea while waiting. 10) When it prompts you to permanently add key, click "yes". 11) Now, you need to edit cpustart.sh and gpustart.sh in your home directory using either vi or nano, unless you want to mine to my XMR address ;) It looks like if you want to mine directly to exchange, just replace my XMR address in both files with YourExchangeXMRAddress.YourExchangePaymentID. 12) You need to run two commands, one to make gpuminer work, and other to make cpuminer much faster: sudo ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sudo sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24 13) I just made another script called start.sh to launch both miners at once, and it seems to work. So do: then vi or nano start.sh and add: #!/bin/bash
screen /home/ubuntu/cpustart.sh
screen /home/ubuntu/gpustart.sh then: and then launch with: You need the screen so that when you disconnect your ssh session, the miners keep mining. That's it. You can disconnect and both miners should be hashing away. You can ssh back in and run and you should see minerd and ccminer listed in the processes somewhere near the bottom. If you want to launch a shitload of instances, then obviously you want to automate this process and not do it manually every time. In this case, you need to make sure you edit the files so that they have your XMR address and not mine, and create the start.sh script in home directory, then edit the rc.local file by doing: and add the following lines: ldconfig /usr/local/cuda-5.5/lib64
sysctl -w vm.nr_hugepages=24
screen /home/ubuntu/start.sh This way, as soon as the instance boots up, it should autolaunch the miners. I haven't tried this final automation part (as I don't normally launch a shitload of instances), but I think this should work, and I'm gonna verify it now. Now, go back to your EC2 console, right-click on the g2.2xlarge instance in your Instances window, and select Create Image. This will sever your connection and cause a reboot, but you will now have your own image/AMI that you can launch 10s or 100s or 1000s of, just by entering however many instances you want when filling out your spot request form. I just tried the rc.local thing, and it seems to auto-launch ccminer and minerd :) If you feel like leaving a tip for jwinterm, those are his addresses: BTC: 1Gy2BQKMVjvWdRnG3Ktwm2cXdEyL8ZdqvE XMR: 49jkaP1xDZrEYaWxtoToPzitbQh6Z7Vv8c3MwtP49wsZhJUR5VojrxcKgb76zT8XRU5AAWHVptx4RgxgLb5fX7iM2vBSKXA (ask him for confirmation that those are his addresses, if you want to be sure) Hope the above is useful, at least for some of you. I know it was for me :) Oda |
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Might be good for someone to compare XMR price development over the two days to other altcoins. Might well be that the effect of FUD is not even existent...
Quick scan: Over that period the range of LTC was 2.5%, XMR 13.6%, BBR 27.4%, XCN 34.5%, and all are within 10% of the range closest to their lows over the period. What I see is that PoW non-app coins (pure currencies) generally, whether CN or BTC based, have declined in degree best indicated by their market cap. My intuition: There is no FUD effect. It is pure imagination. The price is down because bitcoin. My conjecture is that hot money is flowing out of bitcoin into US stocks (BABA) and GBP bets. This is ADHD money we're talking about. I give it a week or so, before btc bottoms. Unless there is an exogenous jump it would be reasonable to expect continuing XMR\BTC decay. Yet I am unwilling to sell for a turn-around, simply because the scale and likelihood of a positive shock is too large. The market cap is too small. One buyer can double the price forever in 20 seconds or less. I can't risk that. I'm not above trading BTC comparably aggressive (after all, some of those profits then go into anon coins like XMR), but agreed on what you write here: Unless you trade rather small amounts (and can get in and out without slippage, and are nimble enough to jump back in on short notice), it makes little sense to trade the current swings that are largely secondary effects to XMR's older brother Bitcoin. Small correction maybe: It does make sense if you aren't attached to your XMR position, as in: if you're skimming off profits in USD only. If your goal is increasing an already non-trivial XMR stash, I find it hard to believe this can be achieved by swing trading, given the current market conditions. i have swing traded xmr and i have lowered my avg btc/xmr buy in by swing trading, approx 20% more xmr, my first buy was month ago at 0.0037 and then 0.003, then i sold at 0.005-0.004 and then bought 0.0037-0.004, then sold again 0.004 and bought 0.0038-0.004, TA has been triangle and 6h ma20 Nice Out of curiosity, care to say what range your xmr account is in? 3, 4, 5 figures (in xmr, I mean)? Because my point wasn't that swing trading is impossible, but that I'm not sure if it works with large-ish accounts (but I can be corrected on this). P.S. Sorry for the OT. Will take the rest of the conversation to the speculation thread. |
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i think "random as fuck" would describe that triangle better than "sloppy". ::)
Agreed. Though I give decent chances for a capitulation this thread at all contains no TA. Nothing more than meaningless scribblings. True. The problem was never whether what he said was likely to happen or not. The problem was that it was just random noise he produced, without any argument or analysis, and that he kept spamming it in several threads. For real TA, see RyN's thread (but you're already there, I know...) And OP is on ignore for a while already, together with fallling and the other trolls :D |
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