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1121  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: It's about time to turn off PoW mining on: September 19, 2014, 11:11:52 PM
Several issues.

The claim that PoW is "inefficient" is economically naive, at least in the form presented here.  The exact cost per transaction is difficult to determine at the moment because of price fluctuations, but ultimately the efficiency of the network will settle to a value determined by the total value transferred over total cost of running the network. The cheeky claim that it "costs hundreds of time more than a credit card transaction" can hardly be taken serious if it is presented without any kind of calculation, as was done here.

Re: network security. PoW at the scale of the current Bitcoin network is de facto secure (no attack ever succeeded, no realistic attack vector that does not involve massive clandestine hardware production is known), and it is getting more secure each day as additional hashpower comes online. "Increased" security through PoS is an advantage that holds little weight then.

On the other hand, there are numerous disadvantages of PoS. The most significant ones I can think of:

Coin distribution by stake, instead of coin distribution by work. There is something intuitively unappealing about handing the highest rewards to the already largest holders of an asset, and there is something intuitively satisfying about rewarding those who "work the hardest". Don't take my word for it, ask around. This is probably the most basal reason why a majority of the Bitcoin community dislikes PoS.

Consensus forming in the case of competing chains. From a technical perspective, probably the strongest argument. Summarized in the well know form as "The trouble with Proof-of-stake is that there is nothing at stake" if there is a need to form a consensus which of two or more competing chains is the canonical one. I'm not informed enough on the current state of the discussione to know if there have been, generally accepted, solutions to the problem, but the entire problem is alien to PoW because hashpower/energy is a limited resource.

Which brings me to the final point: what some perceive as an "inefficient waste of energy" is, in they eyes of a number of Bitcoin users/investors the fundamental economical backing of the currency. Time will tell if there will be an upper limit to the hardware and energy cost supplied to the network (and that cost will certainly have to increase as total value transferred on the network increases), but setting up the currency-slash-network such that it requires some amount of energy to keep it running is an economic advantage, not disadvantage, because it provides a base valuation in the form of the work it takes to run the network.

tl;dr Bitcoiners prefer PoW. Deal with it.
1122  Economy / Speculation / Re: Short *all* the Bitcoin on: September 19, 2014, 09:08:31 PM
Nice metaphor, I like it Cheesy "picking up nickels in front of a steam roller"... but care to elaborate? "Total BTC float" as in... ?
1123  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 19, 2014, 04:44:55 PM
Quote
Has anyone else here ever tried to buy something on Alibada? All I ever get is a list of wholesalers.
Did you try aliexpress.com ?
They have good prices but it pays off to compare them with amazon or eBay, especially since shipping from China is very slow.

just used it for the first time a few days ago.

wanted to look up reviews/trust ratings, and it's fucking hilarious to see US reviewers bashing them for everything, from importing cholera to orphanages to copyright infringement, and of course the entire site's one big scam.

in reality, it's just a merchant aggregator like ebay (or amazon marketplace), but the vitriolic dislike of ye olde world citizens against our new Chinese overlords spills over in moments like that, I suppose Cheesy
1124  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Announcements (Altcoins) / Re: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency (mandatory upgrade) on: September 19, 2014, 03:24:49 PM
Might be good for someone to compare XMR price development over the two days to other altcoins. Might well be that the effect of FUD is not even existent...

Quick scan: Over that period the range of LTC was 2.5%,  XMR 13.6%, BBR 27.4%, XCN 34.5%, and all are within 10% of the range closest to their lows over the period.

What I see is that PoW non-app coins (pure currencies) generally, whether CN or BTC based, have declined in degree best indicated by their market cap.

My intuition:  There is no FUD effect.  It is pure imagination.  The price is down because bitcoin.  

My conjecture is that hot money is flowing out of bitcoin into US stocks (BABA) and GBP bets.  This is ADHD money we're talking about.  I give it a week or so, before btc bottoms.  Unless there is an exogenous jump it would be reasonable to expect continuing XMR\BTC decay.  Yet I am unwilling to sell for a turn-around, simply because the scale and likelihood of a positive shock is too large.  The market cap is too small.  One buyer can double the price forever in 20 seconds or less.  I can't risk that.

I'm not above trading BTC comparably aggressive (after all, some of those profits then go into anon coins like XMR), but agreed on what you write here: Unless you trade rather small amounts (and can get in and out without slippage, and are nimble enough to jump back in on short notice), it makes little sense to trade the current swings that are largely secondary effects to XMR's older brother Bitcoin. Small correction maybe: It does make sense if you aren't attached to your XMR position, as in: if you're skimming off profits in USD only. If your goal is increasing an already non-trivial XMR stash, I find it hard to believe this can be achieved by swing trading, given the current market conditions.
1125  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: September 19, 2014, 02:55:01 PM
$320? Ouch!

Whats the timescale you think it needs to unfold?

Probably only has a chance if downwards momentum is keeping up, so over the next few days, I suppose.

But I'm kind of fishing in the dark here, that's why I'm asking the master Cheesy
1126  Economy / Speculation / Re: Analysis never ends on: September 19, 2014, 01:23:46 PM
Bugger off, trolls. (= area3121, sevvero)


Possible target, luc?

1127  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 19, 2014, 10:33:17 AM
This is what everyone wanted right? I don't understand the panic. All i've been reading here ishow totally fucking amazing it would be that after 5 years we still would crash because you can then buy cheap coins.
Funny enough i don't see anybody buying. Looks like the rest of the world doesn't care about cheap coins anymore.
But screw that right. All those cheap coins. This is obviously way better than a healthy bull market where Bitcoin slowly goes up in price.
Crash. It must crash. Down down down. Cheap coins. All the way to 10. Crash this thing!

Nobody other than you (and a few others, I guess) thinks the market "has" to do anything. Some of us just observe what it actually does, and think about what it is likely going to do. Kinda helps to be prepared for when it actually happens.


This however is gold:

... left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room.
1128  Economy / Service Announcements / Re: BitcoinWisdom.com - Live Bitcoin/LiteCoin Charts on: September 19, 2014, 08:38:40 AM
Hey, Bitcoinwisdom

A quick question:

How do you calculate the aggregate (or average?) price of a currency on the frontpage, https://bitcoinwisdom.com/

Is it weighted by volume on each exchange? If so, volume of a period, or by trade? Or is it simply a non-weighted average of the last price on all exchanges?
1129  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 09:23:54 PM
Obviously today continues to prove that the people that actually care about bitcoin, are orders of magnitude outnumbered by people who could give 2 shits about bitcoin.

What a great community to be involved in.

<Sigh>

I think bitcoin needs these cycles. This is how you distribute coins.
Either we will face complete failure or sooner or later there will be a rebound. Somewhat like  a phoenix rising from the ashes

Not if those same sold coins keep getting bought back up by the people who don't give 2 shits about bitcoin.  Over, and over, and over again.  We can't stop those whose only goal in life is gleefully buying/dumping and buying/dumping some more.  They don't care what the price is, it makes no difference to them.  They will trade if the price is $400 or $4.  And they don't care if no one is left to buy in the end.

Back when the original hodl thread appeared I had to smile.
So far I've sold very little of the few btc I own.  A pizza, some donations. you get the idea.
The regular user is not going to short bitcoin or go leveraged long regularly.
Unless exchanges use fractional reserving these methods will not work indefinitely the way they do now.



That was you?! o_O
1130  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 07:38:36 PM
No, was thinking of the Argentinian peso and the bolivar.

[...]

Sounds legit. I am in group 2.


Fair enough. Because of peso, bolivar and numerous other reasons, I honestly hope that Bitcoin succeeds in the long-term.

I just don't think it's a given. I'm group 3, in that sense.
1131  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 07:23:21 PM
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it's a store of value being built. Do you actually believe that because some monopoly money went into bitcoin the last few years, it's already a store of value? NO, but the potential of it becoming a store of value is there.

Agreed with that as well.

I wonder why so many people in here are so binary in their thinking: Bitcoin is a terrible store of value currently (and a highly speculative asset), a not-too-shabby medium of transfer, and absolutely not a unit of account. If things go well, it might be a store of value in the future, and the likelihood of that happening is exactly what we're collectively determining/discovering here, through the markets.

I bolded the key word. Anything can happen in the future. Bitcoin might be worth zero in the future as well. My point was that there is a prevalent attitude in this community that bitcoin is a store of value and that buying now is always a good idea. I'd not even consider such terms as "store of value" until bitcoin is much more entrenched.

It is all these things now. It has to be, if not, it is not money. You vision is fogged if you think that some fiat has better quality. Fuck, when you spend the petty cash you get for your astroturfing on that teddy bear, you depress the value of dollar and support the value of teddy bears!


First: you sound angry. Nothing in scarsbergholden's post warrants that, in my opinion.

Second: my Euro denominated bank account hasn't lost more than 50% of its purchasing power in the last half year, as far as I can tell. So, in the short to mid term then, the Euro was a vastly better store of value than Bitcoin. Care to argue with those facts?

There are, extremely broadly speaking, three types of posters in here:

Those who are convinced Bitcoin is going nowhere but down, on any time scale. Trolls aside, that means they'll actively short to make money.

Those who are convinced Bitcoin can and must go up. Success of crypto as a global currency and store of value almost guaranteed, in the long run. They buy and buy and buy, and hope for the best.

And then there's those who look at it as an experiment. Could work. Could fail. Price fluctuations just represent that uncertainty. They trade in whatever way is appropriate at the time.


The problem is that the first group and the third group are most of the time conflated in here by those in the second group. But that's an unrelated problem :)
1132  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 06:57:59 PM
Shorts are decreasing as price is decreasing.
The dumps are real panic sellers.

Not even a short squeeze can save us right now.

We don't need any shorts. If we really do go up, bears will buy back, as well. Bears aren't stupid. At least most of them aren't.

But what if this time it's different, and there is no significant bounce?  Suppose sellers just decide to walk away for 2 years?

Isn't buyers buying back what even day traders always expect?  What if they crash a market so hard that people say "Ok I'm done this time."  Then more miner selling, merchant selling, etc.

Then those who buy in without a bounce back will lose their capital to those who wait out longer. If this goes on long enough, it would indeed mean "Bitcoin is dead".

Hint: Bitcoin is not dead. We're trading at $423 per coin.
1133  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 06:55:23 PM
It can be hard sometimes not to feel like a huge bear with all the constant accusations from the rest of the bullish crowd that if you don't believe in $10k by December, you're a retard.

(and then you still have to draw a line between yourself and the actual bear trolls).

I surrender! Bitcoin's volatility is really nothing in comparision what one has to bear in this thread. I quit here, and will search a new, better home - Ryan's Log, Analysis never ends, Speculation Posting Guidelines or whatever. It's too heavy, my head! I need asparine or better some valium.

Are you implying I'm too dramatic?

(I am too dramatic, I guess Tongue)
1134  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 06:10:39 PM
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it's a store of value being built. Do you actually believe that because some monopoly money went into bitcoin the last few years, it's already a store of value? NO, but the potential of it becoming a store of value is there.

Agreed with that as well.

I wonder why so many people in here are so binary in their thinking: Bitcoin is a terrible store of value currently (and a highly speculative asset), a not-too-shabby medium of transfer, and absolutely not a unit of account. If things go well, it might be a store of value in the future, and the likelihood of that happening is exactly what we're collectively determining/discovering here, through the markets.

I bolded the key word. Anything can happen in the future. Bitcoin might be worth zero in the future as well. My point was that there is a prevalent attitude in this community that bitcoin is a store of value and that buying now is always a good idea. I'd not even consider such terms as "store of value" until bitcoin is much more entrenched.

I bolded the key sentence as well... Welcome to the forum Cheesy

It can be hard sometimes not to feel like a huge bear with all the constant accusations from the rest of the bullish crowd that if you don't believe in $10k by December, you're a retard.

(and then you still have to draw a line between yourself and the actual bear trolls).
1135  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 05:51:37 PM
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, it's a store of value being built. Do you actually believe that because some monopoly money went into bitcoin the last few years, it's already a store of value? NO, but the potential of it becoming a store of value is there.

Agreed with that as well.

I wonder why so many people in here are so binary in their thinking: Bitcoin is a terrible store of value currently (and a highly speculative asset), a not-too-shabby medium of transfer, and absolutely not a unit of account. If things go well, it might be a store of value in the future, and the likelihood of that happening is exactly what we're collectively determining/discovering here, through the markets.
1136  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 05:30:09 PM
What would be dead is the inflated expectations of a few overzealous people. That's all.

So it's greedy if a bitcoiner buys a bitcoin sometime, ANYTIME in 2014, and expects it to more or less retain it's value? Should no one have bought any bitcoins AT ALL in 2014 and held them?

Honestly answer the question.  2014 is nearly over, it's been 10 months.
Maybe not greedy but naive? Bitcoin went up x100 in 2013. Do you expect this to just maintain its value without major corrections?

If you want to retain value short to mid term at least, then Bitcoin is not the asset to do that. Bitcoin is an asset to look for high growth, and with that growth comes the cost of RISK.

Sticky please. First post everyone should read who enters this forum.
1137  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 05:16:56 PM
I love all the bullshit TA in here. These people actually think they know what's going on. There's no reason BTC couldn't drop to $250 or lower, but when it happens they'll say they predicted it all along!

then how come some people are sitting this one out rather calmly, more or less all in usd? pure luck?
1138  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 03:38:12 PM
That might be the fast-crash we need. Alot of powerful forces want to buy lower. Let them, buy with them, ride the wave wherever it goes, and chill. Bitcoin did that multiples times already, and always recovered.

I've been reading about these mysterious forces that want to get in for 9 months now.
So who exactly are they and when exactly are they gonna buy in?

I believe they will buy in right after they kill the golden goose, and everyone will lose. Humans are doomed to destroy the planet and we can't do anything about it.

Despair. Repent. Rejoice.

Could it be there is no big mysterious force that wants to get in?

There very well be a mysterious force that wants in, but you have to wondering if crashing the price to sub $100 will get them what they really want. Bitcoin is still in the early stages and needs its evangelists and cult like behavior; you need people to believe the impossible at first to keep the walls from caving in. If you crush the dreams of all those people in the process of getting in at your price, you'll be able to get your sub $100 coins, but no one will be around to care, or buy them back from you.

There are plenty of people who bought in back in 2011/12 that are still up on their investments. We've got a long way to go before those people give up, I'm one of them and will just stand here holding that bag. It got me to where I'm at, Bitcoin helped my life out immensely, it doesn't owe me anything. I'm not a trader anymore, just an observer.

Good luck everyone. This feels like a bottom.

Well said. Play it too hard and no one wants to play anymore.

Problem is, it's simply not true. In fact, that post is pretty much contradicting itself:

>There are plenty of people who bought in back in 2011/12 that are still up on their investments.

Exactly. After price dropped from $32 to $2. And people bought back anyway. Less people, maybe, but they stuck around.

In all likelihood, that's what's going to happen again this time... More despair. More people leaving for good. Some staying around. Eventually, a new rally. New people coming around because of the rally. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.

(And, of course, as always the non-zero chance that this is after all the last bubble, and the experiment failed. There's a reason why there's a substantial growth potential in price - because there's a substantial risk that it'll all go tits up.)
1139  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 02:52:59 PM
i'll be back.


"I am just going outside and may be some time."


Oooh, good one.


Annecdote time: I told my gf about that quote and its context a while ago, and she got really sad about it.

Now, I sometimes just casually drop the line "I'm quickly going to do some groceries, it may be some time", and her eyes almost water up when I say that Cheesy

(yes, I'm a psycho)
1140  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: September 18, 2014, 01:47:58 PM
That might be the fast-crash we need. Alot of powerful forces want to buy lower. Let them, buy with them, ride the wave wherever it goes, and chill. Bitcoin did that multiples times already, and always recovered.

Are you an alt of a much older member Cheesy
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