I think Bitcoin was designed to be (at least) 1M US$ per 1 BTC

[w00t]

why not 100M then? by your logic, with this you have a better correspondence, because 1 satoshi would be worth 1 dollar, which is more "cool" by the look of the reason behind this thread...

I've been told that a person who knows his/her area shouldn't be wrong by factor of 10 and to me 100M per 1 BTC doesn't look reasonable in my lifetime (unless I will be here like till I'm like 150 or so). But whenever somebody asked me where do I see the endgame in Bitcoin I said that ZERO or 1-10 M USD per BTC is not unreasonable.

For me the maths works like this - with each halving the volume of transactions should grow by at least tenfold to live up to its expectations and it did so far. So if we saw with last halving 1k USD per BTC I came to conclusion that in next halving it should be (even if briefly) 10k (the one in July 2016 or so) the one in 2020 should go to 100k and the next "close" one should be to 1M+ - basically before 2030.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

[w00t]

What do you think?

same as usual, read this fucking spreadsheet !


backup : http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img907/1327/2NKTRm.png

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1119926.0

btw the Paypal is off: Market cap is now about 45 B and never was close to 100 B see this: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3APYPL
Visa has close to 200 B cap: https://www.google.com/finance?q=visa
MasterCard is about half (112B atm): https://www.google.com/finance?q=ma
AMEX 72 B: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:AXP
etc..

besides why should we compare market cap of these compare to the market cap of Bitcoin? How it does make any sense? I'm really curious - I just can't get there. Maybe I'm not so big financial brain but I simply can't get there.

As for the gold, cash and savings I think it's valid - coz Bitcoin is close enough to gold, cash and/or savings accounts.

[Mickeyb]

Something tells me that Satoshi wasn't thinking at all about the possible dollar value of 1 bitcoin in the future. For him, this was just a huge experiment and I think that even today's state of Bitcoin can be called a huge success. Of course he has created it and he has let the community take Bitcoin wherever they want.

I also think that dollar value is a huge downside of Bitcoin at the moment of its growth and development, at its young age. Too many decisions are being made and have been influenced only by dollar signs in mind.

[Pab]

This is really just my speculation - but we are in speculation area so I will be happy if somebody post his findings as well.

The idea:
1 Satoshi is currently 0.00000001 BTC which is literally nothing in USD.

But try to multiply the 0.00000001 by 1 000 000 and you get to decent accounting number of 0.01 (https://www.google.com/search?q=0.00000001*1000000) which is 1 Cent.

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there nobody will care about 0.01 USD so it could be technically more than 1 M USD.

Also as far as I know it's not big deal to make Bitcoin divisible even further as long as there is consensus among developers and miners. But the original design 0.01 USD = 1 Satoshi I think is quite obvious and makes sense. While I don't consider myself anywhere near the mind that designed the original protocol I think even back then when Satoshi designed it I think this number came to Satoshi's mind.

What do you think?

I think when you will think more btc price will reach 10 mln,100mln $.Central Banksarethinking like that producing more and more that what thay call money.Thay only think and think

[zimmah]

I think at some point we will reach at least 1 million but likely about 10 million or more.

anything less is just not enough for bitcoin to be considered a serious currency on a gloabal level.

[dinofelis]

besides why should we compare market cap of these compare to the market cap of Bitcoin? How it does make any sense? I'm really curious - I just can't get there. Maybe I'm not so big financial brain but I simply can't get there.

Because the market cap (times a velocity factor which is normally of the order of single digit) for a monetary asset determines its scope.  It wouldn't mean a lot to compare to the market cap of, say, Apple or so.  But it does mean a lot when compared to monetary market caps.

The upper limit of bitcoin's market cap is of course the world's M2 market cap.  There's simply not more money in the world (savings deposits, cash, bank accounts, ....).  Bitcoin can at most replace all monetary assets.  It can't replace production capital for instance.  It can't replace an airplane.   So that upper market cap brings bitcoin in the few million dollar of today range.
It would mean that there isn't any fiat money in the world any more.  It would mean that all fiat money in the world, on bank accounts, cash, on savings accounts has been replaced by bitcoin, and doesn't exist any more.  No more dollars, Yuan, Yen, Rubbles, Euros....  all of them replaced by bitcoin and no altcoin.  THEN, and ONLY THEN, a coin will be what is a few million dollars right now.

As for the gold, cash and savings I think it's valid - coz Bitcoin is close enough to gold, cash and/or savings accounts.

Indeed.  But you should realize that bitcoin can only take on their market cap if the asset under consideration has ITSELF lost its value.  So Bitcoin will replace gold's market cap when gold will have become worthless and you can exchange a kg of gold for a pizza.

[Winalunt]

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there

I dont know why people neglect the fact that there is an equal chance for bitcoin to collapse and as well reach 1 million.
This speculation is just terrible and also childish.....i would say it is next to impossible for bitcoin to reach 10k $ in this century.

Care to explain why you think it's terrible and childish? I like opposition but saying that without any argument has very little value.

Yes because you are expecting a 3000x increase on the current value , i dont see that happening unless the roth's invest 0.02 % of their wealth in bitcoin, just being positive is what i would say childish and it is.

[dinofelis]

Something tells me that Satoshi wasn't thinking at all about the possible dollar value of 1 bitcoin in the future. For him, this was just a huge experiment and I think that even today's state of Bitcoin can be called a huge success. Of course he has created it and he has let the community take Bitcoin wherever they want.

But it is well-designed in the sense that the numerical dynamics of bitcoin corresponds exactly to the ratio of the world monetary market cap over the smallest reasonable unit of money (20 trillion over 0.01 = 2 x 10^15 which is exactly the bitcoin dynamics, that is the total number of Satoshis that will be created).  Call it a coincidence.

I also think that dollar value is a huge downside of Bitcoin at the moment of its growth and development, at its young age. Too many decisions are being made and have been influenced only by dollar signs in mind.

The point is that on the short term, the dollar has a higher price stability and has a better representation of market value than bitcoin itself.  You could express bitcoin in pizza or in Big Mac, and the variations you would see, would be pretty similar to those in dollar or Euro or ...

[NorrisK]

Something tells me that Satoshi wasn't thinking at all about the possible dollar value of 1 bitcoin in the future. For him, this was just a huge experiment and I think that even today's state of Bitcoin can be called a huge success. Of course he has created it and he has let the community take Bitcoin wherever they want.

I also think that dollar value is a huge downside of Bitcoin at the moment of its growth and development, at its young age. Too many decisions are being made and have been influenced only by dollar signs in mind.

Agreed. Satoshi created it to get rid of dollars. It was never meant to be worth a million dollar.

One btc was meant to be one btc and you would buy stuff with btc. Start to lose the fiat feeling

[dinofelis]

Something tells me that Satoshi wasn't thinking at all about the possible dollar value of 1 bitcoin in the future. For him, this was just a huge experiment and I think that even today's state of Bitcoin can be called a huge success. Of course he has created it and he has let the community take Bitcoin wherever they want.

I also think that dollar value is a huge downside of Bitcoin at the moment of its growth and development, at its young age. Too many decisions are being made and have been influenced only by dollar signs in mind.

Agreed. Satoshi created it to get rid of dollars. It was never meant to be worth a million dollar.

One btc was meant to be one btc and you would buy stuff with btc. Start to lose the fiat feeling

I think you shouldn't see the denomination in dollars as something specific to dollars, but just as a more reliable measure of market value.  As I said, you could just as well express the market value of bitcoin in Big Mac: how many Big Mac can you buy for a bitcoin ?

The main difficulty is that the answer to that is probably 0, because Mc Donalds doesn't accept bitcoin most of the time.  So using an intermediate asset that CAN buy Big Macs directly and for which the price of a Big Mac is relatively stable IS a relatively good way to measure the buying power (market value) of bitcoin  - it lacking actual direct buying power for most commodities most of the time.

You also measure the market value of gold or paper assets in dollar, Euro, Yuan, Yen, ... simply because these fiat monetary assets are directly usable to buy stuff, are relatively stable in the short term, and hence have a psychological representation of market value.

(a Big Mac has a relatively stable price in fiat money).

[Amph]

why not 100M then? by your logic, with this you have a better correspondence, because 1 satoshi would be worth 1 dollar, which is more "cool" by the look of the reason behind this thread...

I've been told that a person who knows his/her area shouldn't be wrong by factor of 10 and to me 100M per 1 BTC doesn't look reasonable in my lifetime (unless I will be here like till I'm like 150 or so). But whenever somebody asked me where do I see the endgame in Bitcoin I said that ZERO or 1-10 M USD per BTC is not unreasonable.

For me the maths works like this - with each halving the volume of transactions should grow by at least tenfold to live up to its expectations and it did so far. So if we saw with last halving 1k USD per BTC I came to conclusion that in next halving it should be (even if briefly) 10k (the one in July 2016 or so) the one in 2020 should go to 100k and the next "close" one should be to 1M+ - basically before 2030.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

ah yeah but it may be possible, but what about from the 50 coins per block to the next reward, it go from 1 to 1k so 3 x 10 factors, which is different from what you are sustaining

we are at 300, so by this logic it can only go to 3k, then 30k and then 300k and not 1M, bitcoin works like god, in mysterious ways

[w00t]

why not 100M then? by your logic, with this you have a better correspondence, because 1 satoshi would be worth 1 dollar, which is more "cool" by the look of the reason behind this thread...

I've been told that a person who knows his/her area shouldn't be wrong by factor of 10 and to me 100M per 1 BTC doesn't look reasonable in my lifetime (unless I will be here like till I'm like 150 or so). But whenever somebody asked me where do I see the endgame in Bitcoin I said that ZERO or 1-10 M USD per BTC is not unreasonable.

For me the maths works like this - with each halving the volume of transactions should grow by at least tenfold to live up to its expectations and it did so far. So if we saw with last halving 1k USD per BTC I came to conclusion that in next halving it should be (even if briefly) 10k (the one in July 2016 or so) the one in 2020 should go to 100k and the next "close" one should be to 1M+ - basically before 2030.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

ah yeah but it may be possible, but what about from the 50 coins per block to the next reward, it go from 1 to 1k so 3 x 10 factors, which is different from what you are sustaining

we are at 300, so by this logic it can only go to 3k, then 30k and then 300k and not 1M, bitcoin works like god, in mysterious ways

obviously I didn't meant it it needs to go to 3000.00 and it can't be 2750.84 or so. I was looking at the ranges 1k range which for me means +/- 20 %, 10k range by which I mean again +/- 20 % around that value and so on. Let's keep the discussion positive and intelligent, yes we do not know each other personally but have some respect - I have the account here for some time already