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Author Topic: I think Bitcoin was designed to be (at least) 1M US$ per 1 BTC  (Read 1651 times)
w00t
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November 10, 2015, 08:59:06 AM
 #1

This is really just my speculation - but we are in speculation area so I will be happy if somebody post his findings as well.

The idea:
1 Satoshi is currently 0.00000001 BTC which is literally nothing in USD.

But try to multiply the 0.00000001 by 1 000 000 and you get to decent accounting number of 0.01 (https://www.google.com/search?q=0.00000001*1000000) which is 1 Cent.

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there nobody will care about 0.01 USD so it could be technically more than 1 M USD.

Also as far as I know it's not big deal to make Bitcoin divisible even further as long as there is consensus among developers and miners. But the original design 0.01 USD = 1 Satoshi I think is quite obvious and makes sense. While I don't consider myself anywhere near the mind that designed the original protocol I think even back then when Satoshi designed it I think this number came to Satoshi's mind.

What do you think?

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November 10, 2015, 09:16:12 AM
 #2

This is really just my speculation - but we are in speculation area so I will be happy if somebody post his findings as well.

The idea:
1 Satoshi is currently 0.00000001 BTC which is literally nothing in USD.

But try to multiply the 0.00000001 by 1 000 000 and you get to decent accounting number of 0.01 (https://www.google.com/search?q=0.00000001*1000000) which is 1 Cent.

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there nobody will care about 0.01 USD so it could be technically more than 1 M USD.

Also as far as I know it's not big deal to make Bitcoin divisible even further as long as there is consensus among developers and miners. But the original design 0.01 USD = 1 Satoshi I think is quite obvious and makes sense. While I don't consider myself anywhere near the mind that designed the original protocol I think even back then when Satoshi designed it I think this number came to Satoshi's mind.

What do you think?

I think that have no connection like the ones made from you. I am not sure about what I will write following because I am not a developer or programmer but I have seen even more zero in various sites when was written about amounts in bitcoin. I don't know if technically this can be possible or it is only an initiative of one or more sites but if yes that mean that the actual division of bitcoin is only a causality. But if even this thing mentioned by me is not possible I don't thing that Satoshi have such things in mind when invented bitcoin. He must have a brilliant brain but to imagine that 1 bitcoin one day must be equal with 1M us dollar and build its invention with this thing in mind seems very futuristic to me. Then why compared to us dollar? Bitcoin will have its value compared to every currency of the world. Or because us dollar is the main currency used in the world (leaving apart the national currency)? Mus be even this one reason. But, as for me, Satoshi when invented bitcoin has not in mind such kind of things. Bitcoin in itself is a big invention and the first of its era. As such needed to much mental exhaustion. This make almost impossible to think even such things like those written in the main post.
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November 10, 2015, 09:20:18 AM
 #3

yes this was the idea behind it. if this will happen is another thing.

he was also so smart using a number that can be stored within a 64-bit integer and also in double-precision floating-point format. so you can choose whatever your programming language prefer.
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November 10, 2015, 09:44:43 AM
 #4

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there
I dont know why people neglect the fact that there is an equal chance for bitcoin to collapse and as well reach 1 million.
This speculation is just terrible and also childish.....i would say it is next to impossible for bitcoin to reach 10k $ in this century.
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November 10, 2015, 10:02:25 AM
 #5

The money has to come from somewhere in order to make Bitcoin reach $1 million in the very far future. It might happen if a billionaire group or entity buys nearly all coins in existance and make the price go up to insane numbers throughout the years. If they buy up nearlly all the coins, they don't have to worry about dumps. It's basically like stocks from the largest companies. We as normal people trade stocks in order to earn some crumbs, while the elite has the wealth to make or break the stocks from giga companies. As soon as they hold the far majority of the stocks/coins they will feel comfortable bringing things to insane price levels.

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November 10, 2015, 10:57:57 AM
 #6

This is plain bs. BTC was invented as a trade currency online... The rate is determined, like any assest/curency, by supply and demand.

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November 10, 2015, 11:01:14 AM
 #7

Well we will not get to 1M USD per 1 BTC tomorrow (if ever) but I think it's safe to assume that by the time we get there
I dont know why people neglect the fact that there is an equal chance for bitcoin to collapse and as well reach 1 million.
This speculation is just terrible and also childish.....i would say it is next to impossible for bitcoin to reach 10k $ in this century.

Care to explain why you think it's terrible and childish? I like opposition but saying that without any argument has very little value.

First PC game is using Bitcoin as the currency: Fallout 2
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November 10, 2015, 11:29:49 AM
 #8

I dont know why people neglect the fact that there is an equal chance for bitcoin to collapse and as well reach 1 million.
This speculation is just terrible and also childish.....i would say it is next to impossible for bitcoin to reach 10k $ in this century.

Actually 10K can happen in this decade not very likely, also not sustainable but it can happen in a bubble. But I agree, 1 million is a bit different and much harder to achieve Smiley.
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November 10, 2015, 11:35:50 AM
 #9

you failed to analyze the supply and demand factor.

Keep on dreaming though

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November 10, 2015, 12:31:57 PM
 #10

Indeed, the dynamic range of bitcoin was designed to be able to cover all possible values.  The highest possible value for a bitcoin is in the 1 million dollar range, simply because then the market cap of bitcoin reaches the 20 trillion dollar equivalent, which is, up to a factor 2 or 3, the total amount of M2 money in the world.

In other words, if bitcoin replaces all the M2 money everywhere in the world, and for the rest, the velocity of money is comparable to what it is now, then a bitcoin will be worth what is now a few million dollars.  (of course, at that moment, a few million dollars won't even buy you a bread, because the dollar has collapsed and is replaced by bitcoin)

You can hardly expect bitcoin to be more worth than all the money in the world.  So this is a fair upper limit of the value of a bitcoin.

This is why it was relatively wise to put 8 decimals after the comma, so that the smallest unit (the Satoshi) is then a small amount of money (worth what is now one cent).

So yes, the reasonable upper limit of value of bitcoin is what is now a few million dollars.
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November 10, 2015, 01:03:10 PM
 #11

better stop thinking. satoshi had no clue of whether bitcoin would get a success or not. it was designed to serve a certain group of people who were waiting for changes.
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November 10, 2015, 01:07:05 PM
 #12

Bitcoin can easily hit $10,000, and it could happen as close as a timespan of 1-4 years.  As soon as block halving occurs in 8 months, you'll have 4% inflation and 78% of coins mined.  If emission halves and demand increases from people recognizing it as a store of value, instead of something like a doubling in price, you can get a 4x from that alone, back over ATH already.  Then the same thing will probably occur with the halving after that.

So yea, with these kind of conservative success estimates, it could be stable around $6000 by 2019-2020, reaching $10k in a bubble.  Most people use more expoential adoption models for Bitcoin though, and depending on how many fiat currencies implode between now and then, those numbers could be passed pretty quick.

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November 10, 2015, 01:09:10 PM
 #13

Bitcoin can easily hit $10,000, and it could happen as close as a timespan of 1-4 years.  As soon as block halving occurs in 8 months, you'll have 4% inflation and 78% of coins mined.  If emission halves and demand increases from people recognizing it as a store of value, instead of something like a doubling in price, you can get a 4x from that alone, back over ATH already.  Then the same thing will probably occur with the halving after that.

So yea, with these kind of conservative success estimates, it could be stable around $6000 by 2019-2020, reaching $10k in a bubble.  Most people use more expoential adoption models for Bitcoin though, and depending on how many fiat currencies implode between now and then, those numbers could be passed pretty quick.

That makes nice reading, even 5k per bitcoin would make me a very happy man.

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November 10, 2015, 04:04:48 PM
 #14

better stop thinking. satoshi had no clue of whether bitcoin would get a success or not. it was designed to serve a certain group of people who were waiting for changes.

The fact that the numerical dynamics for bitcoin can be adapted to "replacing all the money in the world" has no relationship to the probability that that will happen of course.  It is just that the dynamic range of bitcoin is of exactly the right size to do so, and to keep as smallest denomination something of the kind of the smallest actual monetary denomination in dollar (a few cent).

The main problem with bitcoin at that point wouldn't be the scale of the smallest denomination, but the huge amount of transactions and the mindboggling size of the blockchain.

w00t
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November 10, 2015, 04:26:39 PM
 #15

you failed to analyze the supply and demand factor.

Keep on dreaming though

Well I didn't mean to analyze it I was just thinking "practical" if that was the idea behind 8 decimals.

First PC game is using Bitcoin as the currency: Fallout 2
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w00t
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November 10, 2015, 04:27:43 PM
 #16

better stop thinking. satoshi had no clue of whether bitcoin would get a success or not. it was designed to serve a certain group of people who were waiting for changes.

why better stop thinking? Whatever the motive was I'm happy he pulled it off and I can be part of it.

First PC game is using Bitcoin as the currency: Fallout 2
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w00t
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November 10, 2015, 04:31:03 PM
 #17

Bitcoin can easily hit $10,000, and it could happen as close as a timespan of 1-4 years.  As soon as block halving occurs in 8 months, you'll have 4% inflation and 78% of coins mined.  If emission halves and demand increases from people recognizing it as a store of value, instead of something like a doubling in price, you can get a 4x from that alone, back over ATH already.  Then the same thing will probably occur with the halving after that.

So yea, with these kind of conservative success estimates, it could be stable around $6000 by 2019-2020, reaching $10k in a bubble.  Most people use more expoential adoption models for Bitcoin though, and depending on how many fiat currencies implode between now and then, those numbers could be passed pretty quick.

That makes nice reading, even 5k per bitcoin would make me a very happy man.

considering the next halving is around corner and if the past performance has any relation with the future (those whole don't like TA say it doesn't) I see to happen 10k by the end of the year 2016. If there is not at least high 4 digits by the end of the 2016 I'd have doubts whether the Bitcoin is actually growing and ever will be a success.

First PC game is using Bitcoin as the currency: Fallout 2
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w00t
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November 10, 2015, 04:40:58 PM
 #18

better stop thinking. satoshi had no clue of whether bitcoin would get a success or not. it was designed to serve a certain group of people who were waiting for changes.

The fact that the numerical dynamics for bitcoin can be adapted to "replacing all the money in the world" has no relationship to the probability that that will happen of course.  It is just that the dynamic range of bitcoin is of exactly the right size to do so, and to keep as smallest denomination something of the kind of the smallest actual monetary denomination in dollar (a few cent).

The main problem with bitcoin at that point wouldn't be the scale of the smallest denomination, but the huge amount of transactions and the mindboggling size of the blockchain.



Well what now seems as mindboggling will be "nothing" by the time it will go to that level - I don't mean that we will be at 1 M USD per BTC anywhere earlier than year 2030 (if it survives), and if in past 10 years the price of RAM dropped per gigabyte 50x, maybe it's fair to say that for the same amount as we pay today we will get in next 10 years 50x more RAM, so who wants 50 GB of RAM for 5 USD?

http://www.statisticbrain.com/average-historic-price-of-ram/

I also did some research and I came to conclusion that worldwide internet speed doubles every 3 years (I mean including households) as it's heavily regulated it's sort of slower than the Moores law of double per every 18 months. so in 9 years we will have 4x faster than we have today. Look at dedicated server offers - around year 2000 everybody offered like 10Mb line, in 2008 was the usual like 100Mb line now we are moving to the 1 Gb area and so on - I wouldn't be surprised if in next 10 years the "normal" would be 10 Gbit interface on cheap ~ 100 USD per month server.

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November 10, 2015, 05:25:53 PM
 #19

why not 100M then? by your logic, with this you have a better correspondence, because 1 satoshi would be worth 1 dollar, which is more "cool" by the look of the reason behind this thread...
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November 10, 2015, 05:44:59 PM
 #20

What do you think?

same as usual, read this fucking spreadsheet !


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