Unlikely Bitcoin price will ever surpass $5,000

[drawingthesun]

inorder for ordinary users to audit the blockchain they need to keep up to date with current transactions. Im not talking about a problem in the way of physically storing the blockchain on their computer, im saying they would be incapable of downloaing transactions as quickly as they were being produced.

This is a problem isn't it?

Maybe in the future instead of becoming an entire node yourself, a algorithm determines how many computers a node should be apart of based on internet speed and space available.

So in the the future you automatically connect into a node that contains perhaps 100 computers that you select or are automatically selected. And this node downloads the current transactions but each part of the node (1/100) downloads a smallish part that is a little slice of the whole)

This would mean the poor can continue to audit the network because they are apart of a node, just a smaller fraction. (and if they want to search within the node they connect to other computers to read the parts they don't have)

These are things we need to think about now or another currency will think about it and will fix it.

(also I understand that there is no need to download the entire blockchain, the client should give users a choice between full chain download or just the smallest part needed)

Imagine in the future you download the client and these are your options:

1. do you want to be apart of a node or an entire node
2. if you want to be a entire node, do you want the entire chain?

[Anon136]

inorder for ordinary users to audit the blockchain they need to keep up to date with current transactions. Im not talking about a problem in the way of physically storing the blockchain on their computer, im saying they would be incapable of downloaing transactions as quickly as they were being produced.

This is a problem isn't it?

Maybe in the future instead of becoming an entire node yourself, a algorithm determines how many computers a node should be apart of based on internet speed and space available.

So in the the future you automatically connect into a node that contains perhaps 100 computers that you select or are automatically selected. And this node downloads the current transactions but each part of the node (1/100) downloads a smallish part that is a little slice of the whole)

This would mean the poor can continue to audit the network because they are apart of a node, just a smaller fraction. (and if they want to search within the node they connect to other computers to read the parts they don't have)

These are things we need to think about now or another currency will think about it and will fix it.

(also I understand that there is no need to download the entire blockchain, the client should give users a choice between full chain download or just the smallest part needed)

Imagine in the future you download the client and these are your options:

1. do you want to be apart of a node or an entire node
2. if you want to be a entire node, do you want the entire chain?

ya i actually started thinking about this just as soon as i finished posting my previous message. Regular users could simply audit random transactions instead of every transaction.

[Dabs]

World narrow money is valued at $27 trillion.

Stock of narrow money:
$27.05 trillion (31 December 2012 est.)
$25.64 trillion (31 December 2011 est.)
$23.88 trillion (31 December 2010 est.)

Definition: This entry, also known as "M1," comprises the total quantity of currency in circulation (notes and coins) plus demand deposits denominated in the national currency held by nonbank financial institutions, state and local governments, nonfinancial public enterprises, and the private sector of the economy, measured at a specific point in time. National currency units have been converted to US dollars at the closing exchange rate for the date of the information. Because of exchange rate movements, changes in money stocks measured in national currency units may vary significantly from those shown in US dollars, and caution is urged when making comparisons over time in US dollars. Narrow money consists of more liquid assets than broad money and the assets generally function as a "medium of exchange" for an economy.

on a per country basis:
United States: $2.318 trillion (31 December 2012 est.)
Venezuela: $175.7 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Zimbabwe    $12.28 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
Switzerland    $484.4 billion (31 December 2012 est.)
European Union    $6.205 trillion (31 December 2011)


So, it's not a matter of if, but when ...

[Anon136]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

Learn from history:

Its so sad to see pictures of children that you know are dead by now.

[piramida]

pictures of children that you know will die in the future are also sad.

[nellybear]

pictures of children that you know will die in the future are also sad.

Pictures of people who don't have children, but might do one day, and those currently non-existent children will be dead one day, that's the saddest.

[Dabs]

Bitcoin is open source. How do you lock that down?

[Anon136]

the problem here is more one of ordinary peoples inability to download a record of all the transactions in the world, which is what we do right now. Altering from this model fundamentally changes bitcoin. People would resist these changes and so reaching this limit would impose some sort of a soft cap on the value of bitcoin.

Not quite - only unspent transactions are needed, and then, only on the miner nodes. This change is either already possible or will be possible soon without any serious changes. All spent transactions can be stored somewhere for history, or can be totally gone, it does not change anything.

Ordinary people need to download nothing.

inorder for ordinary users to audit the blockchain they need to keep up to date with current transactions. Im not talking about a problem in the way of physically storing the blockchain on their computer, im saying they would be incapable of downloaing transactions as quickly as they were being produced.

Why do some people even want Bitcoin to grow into a monstrosity in the first place? Nothing would be fixed! Centralisation of power would be the same as always. Instead of old boring names like 'Euro', and "Federal Reserve" there would be cool-sounding names like P2Pool and BTC Guild. Hoards of anti-globalist hippies would occasionally protest outside of Bitcoin Foundation's solid marble HQ...

If you can't lock-down the source code, I guess the next-best thing is to form pacts and cartels...

i agree. The way i see it there is no good reason not to keep bitcoin small since cryptocurrencies can be exchanged against each other SO easily and fluidly. Just leave bitcoin the way it is and if transactions become a problem than we can use litecoins for micro transactions and bitcoins for big transactions, problem solved. This would of course be a little bit janky at first but in such an environment crypto-currency exchanges would evolve to become ubiquitous VERY quickly.

[Anon136]

...
Why do some people even want Bitcoin to grow into a monstrosity in the first place? Nothing would be fixed! Centralisation of power would be the same as always. Instead of old boring names like 'Euro', and "Federal Reserve" there would be cool-sounding names like P2Pool and BTC Guild. Hoards of anti-globalist hippies would occasionally protest outside of Bitcoin Foundation's solid marble HQ...

If you can't lock-down the source code, I guess the next-best thing is to form pacts and cartels...

i agree. The way i see it there is no good reason not to keep bitcoin small since cryptocurrencies can be exchanged against each other SO easily and fluidly.

This is why I have a sneaky suspicion that whoever is behind 'Ripple' (and MtGox earlier) might be the one and only: Satoshi. If they manage to make the various 'Coins and Alt-chains properly fluid, that could really alter Bitcoin's war path. However, I might be misunderstanding how their decentralised web-of-trust/exchange thing is supposed to work.

Possably but even now it could even be as simple as going to a web page and entering the address you are sending to and have it create a forwarding address. Then you could send btc to the forwarding address and have ltc arrive at the other end, or vise versa.

[josiahgarber]

Uhh, zimbabwe's inflation was due largely to a civil war destroying the economy.

Considering the US isn't fighting a major war on (or within) its borders (and likely wont be in the near future), neither post WW1 Germany or post Civil War Zimbabwe are really equitable to the current economic situation in the US.

Are you serious?  You think bank notes in Zimbabwe magically sprouted 10 zeroes because people were fighting in the country?  I tend to believe the government had something to do with it...

[Rothgar]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

They print 3% of M1 every month.

[mp420]

Hyperinflation is caused by economy grinding to a halt accompanied by grossly incompetent or corrupted monetary policy. I do not think that will happen to the USD at least in the next 20 years. Yes, they're stupid but they're not THAT stupid.

High inflation (double-digit, and not necessarily low double-digit annual inflation percentage), such as seen in 1990s Russia, however, is possible. All it takes is a significant economic contraction combined with China deciding they don't want to support the US economy any more.

[w1R903]

Hyperinflation is caused by economy grinding to a halt accompanied by grossly incompetent or corrupted monetary policy. I do not think that will happen to the USD at least in the next 20 years. Yes, they're stupid but they're not THAT stupid.

High inflation (double-digit, and not necessarily low double-digit annual inflation percentage), such as seen in 1990s Russia, however, is possible. All it takes is a significant economic contraction combined with China deciding they don't want to support the US economy any more.

Where are you in the US that you don't think we have double-digit inflation *right now*?  Have you audited all your basic expenses from year to year?  I have, and the rate is hovering above 10% for the past 2 years.  Why do people believe the official numbers when all they have to do is run a few calculations on Quicken to see that those numbers are ridiculously low?

[Piper67]

Hyperinflation is caused by economy grinding to a halt accompanied by grossly incompetent or corrupted monetary policy. I do not think that will happen to the USD at least in the next 20 years. Yes, they're stupid but they're not THAT stupid.

High inflation (double-digit, and not necessarily low double-digit annual inflation percentage), such as seen in 1990s Russia, however, is possible. All it takes is a significant economic contraction combined with China deciding they don't want to support the US economy any more.

Where are you in the US that you don't think we have double-digit inflation *right now*?  Have you audited all your basic expenses from year to year?  I have, and the rate is hovering above 10% for the past 2 years.  Why do people believe the official numbers when all they have to do is run a few calculations on Quicken to see that those numbers are ridiculously low?

The only reason the US doesn't have double or triple digit inflation is because it owns the guns... but they'd do well to remember they aren't the only ones 

[herzmeister]

This is why I have a sneaky suspicion that whoever is behind 'Ripple' (and MtGox earlier) might be the one and only: Satoshi.

that would be Jed McCaleb.

[Rygon]

Hyperinflation is caused by economy grinding to a halt accompanied by grossly incompetent or corrupted monetary policy. I do not think that will happen to the USD at least in the next 20 years. Yes, they're stupid but they're not THAT stupid.

High inflation (double-digit, and not necessarily low double-digit annual inflation percentage), such as seen in 1990s Russia, however, is possible. All it takes is a significant economic contraction combined with China deciding they don't want to support the US economy any more.

Where are you in the US that you don't think we have double-digit inflation *right now*?  Have you audited all your basic expenses from year to year?  I have, and the rate is hovering above 10% for the past 2 years.  Why do people believe the official numbers when all they have to do is run a few calculations on Quicken to see that those numbers are ridiculously low?

It's a good point. Everyone has a different level of inflation depending on their spending habits, lgeography, etc. Even basic expenses vary wildly between families, depending on whether or not they have children. Has the price of meat been going up significantly? Yep, but it doesn't matter to a vegetarian.

Anyhow, just to play the devil's advocate, the monthly printing of money won't necessarily cause hyperinflation. Most of that money just gets passed around in derivatives and equities. It inflates those assets, but the average person isn't going to be affected by that. The concern is if the money breaks out of that big circle-jerk of hedge funds and starts puchasing real assets like farmland, cattle, rights to mine oil, etc. There are individuals with enough network who could corner entire markets and cause a massive run up in prices just for fun. When the Chinese start buying up prime farmland in the US, we should get worried.