Unlikely Bitcoin price will ever surpass $5,000

[01BTC10]

Now that you started a thread we should see $5K/BTC within a month or two.  

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Now that you started a thread we should see $5K/BTC within a month or two.  

LOL

[oakpacific]

Where is proudhon when I need him?

[bullioner]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

This gives total value around 1% of all gold, which feels about right, but it certainly could go higher.  And I'm talking about a few years, not 20. 

[drawingthesun]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

there is no upper limit imposed here by the amount of capital that COULD flow into the bitcoin network. One potential upper limit though is provided by the fact that it would become almost imposable for the bitcoin system as it exists today to scale up to > 100 transactions per second. If bitcoin had 100billion in capitalization than there would be demand for far more than 100 tx per second. This would cause transaction fees to incrase to the point where bitcoins would become impractical for day to day trade.

The transaction thing is a problem isn't it? For the blockchain to accommodate a massive economy it would have to run at least 5,000 - 10,000 fee per second right? We are talking about replacing most online transactions and many other transactions taking place in cash. The miners would make a lot of money though, which is good for the network.

Is 10,000 transactions ever going to be possible? Has anyone created a test net to optimize bitcoin for this future?

[justusranvier]

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Either Bitcoin fails or national currencies fail.

[twolifeinexile]

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Either Bitcoin fails or national currencies fail.

I think there is no reason why they could not co-exist.

[Anon136]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

there is no upper limit imposed here by the amount of capital that COULD flow into the bitcoin network. One potential upper limit though is provided by the fact that it would become almost imposable for the bitcoin system as it exists today to scale up to > 100 transactions per second. If bitcoin had 100billion in capitalization than there would be demand for far more than 100 tx per second. This would cause transaction fees to incrase to the point where bitcoins would become impractical for day to day trade.

The transaction thing is a problem isn't it? For the blockchain to accommodate a massive economy it would have to run at least 5,000 - 10,000 fee per second right? We are talking about replacing most online transactions and many other transactions taking place in cash. The miners would make a lot of money though, which is good for the network.

Is 10,000 transactions ever going to be possible? Has anyone created a test net to optimize bitcoin for this future?

the problem here is more one of ordinary peoples inability to download a record of all the transactions in the world, which is what we do right now. Altering from this model fundamentally changes bitcoin. People would resist these changes and so reaching this limit would impose some sort of a soft cap on the value of bitcoin.

[justusranvier]

I think there is no reason why they could not co-exist.

In general people only use national currencies because government have thus far been successful at blocking alternatives. If they fail to stop Bitcoin nobody is going to want to be the last person holding government-issued paper.

[Rygon]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

there is no upper limit imposed here by the amount of capital that COULD flow into the bitcoin network. One potential upper limit though is provided by the fact that it would become almost imposable for the bitcoin system as it exists today to scale up to > 100 transactions per second. If bitcoin had 100billion in capitalization than there would be demand for far more than 100 tx per second. This would cause transaction fees to incrase to the point where bitcoins would become impractical for day to day trade.

The transaction thing is a problem isn't it? For the blockchain to accommodate a massive economy it would have to run at least 5,000 - 10,000 fee per second right? We are talking about replacing most online transactions and many other transactions taking place in cash. The miners would make a lot of money though, which is good for the network.

Is 10,000 transactions ever going to be possible? Has anyone created a test net to optimize bitcoin for this future?

Perhaps not. Other networks could always be strapped onto BTC that would allow for both faster confirmations and safe storage of coins, such as an online bank that is widely accepted by merchants. It's been brought up many times before, it could be easily audited, offer a higher comfort level for the non-technically savy, and take most of the small transaction volume off the network.

[piramida]

the problem here is more one of ordinary peoples inability to download a record of all the transactions in the world, which is what we do right now. Altering from this model fundamentally changes bitcoin. People would resist these changes and so reaching this limit would impose some sort of a soft cap on the value of bitcoin.

Not quite - only unspent transactions are needed, and then, only on the miner nodes. This change is either already possible or will be possible soon without any serious changes. All spent transactions can be stored somewhere for history, or can be totally gone, it does not change anything.

Ordinary people need to download nothing.

[Bit_Happy]

That was post-WW1 Germany, not the US.

Zimbabwean president in 1988 : "That was post-WW1 Germany, not Zimbabwe."

 

[evolve]

Uhh, zimbabwe's inflation was due largely to a civil war destroying the economy.

Considering the US isn't fighting a major war on (or within) its borders (and likely wont be in the near future), neither post WW1 Germany or post Civil War Zimbabwe are really equitable to the current economic situation in the US.

[keewee]

Uhh, zimbabwe's inflation was due largely to a civil war destroying the economy.

Considering the US isn't fighting a war on its home turf (and likely wont in the near future), neither germany or zimbabwe are really equitable to the economic situation in the modern day US.

Unless... http://www.naturalnews.com/039345_DHS_arms_race_armored_vehicles.html

[Anon136]

the problem here is more one of ordinary peoples inability to download a record of all the transactions in the world, which is what we do right now. Altering from this model fundamentally changes bitcoin. People would resist these changes and so reaching this limit would impose some sort of a soft cap on the value of bitcoin.

Not quite - only unspent transactions are needed, and then, only on the miner nodes. This change is either already possible or will be possible soon without any serious changes. All spent transactions can be stored somewhere for history, or can be totally gone, it does not change anything.

Ordinary people need to download nothing.

inorder for ordinary users to audit the blockchain they need to keep up to date with current transactions. Im not talking about a problem in the way of physically storing the blockchain on their computer, im saying they would be incapable of downloaing transactions as quickly as they were being produced.

[evolve]

Unless... http://www.naturalnews.com/039345_DHS_arms_race_armored_vehicles.html

Yeah, thats a pretty sensationalist puff piece.

Federal agencies blowing shitloads of taxpayer money on equipment they don't need and will never use is hardly new (look at the F-35 boondoggle), and certainly doesnt mean that civil war is about to erupt.

[johnyj]

There is no upper limit. People will be very happy sitting on their multi-trillion dollar worth bitcoin account and only spend a satoshi to buy a pizza, since that makes them feel good.  Do you ever feel not so good because you had too much money? 

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The amount of currency for circulation can be magnitudes lower than the amount of currency for saving. If someone always spend $3000 each month and get a salary of $3000 at the end of month, the total amount of currency needed to satisfy his transaction will never go above $3000

But if he plan to save money for retirement, then he will have to accumulate at least 3000 x 12 month x 30 years=1.08 million dollar when he reaches 60 years old, that is 360 times more money needed in his saving account than money in circulation. And some people will demand more than that amount

Of course bank will say that all these money saved there is just a waste of resource, let's loan out them and generate some return... And this means, 80% of that money get loaned out using FRB

But since all the investment carry some risk, sometimes the investment will generate huge loss, and when that hit eventually, non of those saving in banks survived. And banks can only hope that future generation will put their retirement saving into their banking system to be able to pay the previous account owner ...
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Bitcoin is best suited to avoid this kind of problem, it can hold whatever huge amount of value that is required for long term saving and it can make sure no one will steal these money to use on risky investment. If the citcoin price is always rising steadily, no one dare to loan out bitcoin savings, that will generate a loss for sure

And since it is a long term/high value saving account, the amount of transaction will not be too much, so the infrastructure today has enough capacity if it is not abused by rogue applications

[DoomDumas]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

Lol, 2-3 % ??  Close your TV right now !

In the CPI calculation, they now account that an iPad2 is double the power of an iPad1, and sold at the same price, then, it account as 0.5 factor in the CPI calculation.  Have you tried to heat an iPad, heat you home of fill your gaz tank with an iPad.. ??

Is the iPad-like Stuff the major part of your expense ?

2-3% "official numbers" are such a scam !!!

Real inflation is way over 10% / year.. just look at your grocery bill, the price of gaz, electricity..

Here, our grocery bills have gone up arround 20% scince last year, same for Gaz, Electricity is almost 10% up.. construction wood +30%, wood to heat our house, 50%.. and all that, just last year..

Dont beleive this 3% official numbers...

[Dabs]

I think bitcoin will reach $1000 in maybe 5 years, and $5000 in another 5 years. Just a wild guess.

[PetrovMichael]

first BitCoin need to replace paypal and old fashion bank card transaction... then will see...

let say world tangible turnover of 7 bln people economics is

7 bln * 12 th = 84 000 000 000 000 only

10 mln of BitCoin can serve the 100% world people economics if 1 BTC will cost 8 400 000 US$ (10 mln BTC value 84 000 000 000 000)

so, 1 US$ will cost 0.000001 (about 1 microBTC)

but we are far away from this point