solo vs pool or multiple miners

[cryptohunter]

hi,

Am i correct in thinking that solo mining against for example a 100mh pool is no different than mining against other multiple miners who have a combined hash of 100mh anyway if they were all solo mining?

So really the only advantage to being in a pool is that it guarantees you a small share of something?  but even then it's not really an advantage in math terms over a very long period of time like a year or something?

I am thinking to try and solo some more tiny amounts of bitbars, since the only pool has closed registration and wondered if i have the same chances now than before the pool grouped all of the solo miners together. I can't see why my chances would be any less. But then i am probably wrong.