My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000
Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.
It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize.
That's fair, I only mention it because when I read that part, tons of flags went off in my head. I actually think you have a reasonably lucid justification for the price points and development along the way.
I agree that the success that Overstock has had will likely materialize into something much more significant and adoption by a Fortune 100 retail company would be a huge step. Although Bitcoin is still yet to be adopted by a Fortune 500 retail company. What I could imagine happening is there being major companies that transact in BTC for the convenience for most people.
Agreed. Once a big player such as Google, Walmart, etc adopt it, I think we'll see an increase in value like nothing else in history. My cap of $25,000 could be way off. It may be closer to $100,000. Some say that's a crazy value, but it is mathematically possible.
$2T is theoretically possible in 4-5 years, although that's asking for a 250 times increase in market growth. Sure, a near similar factor happened in the last 4 years, but this time we'd be starting with a much larger base.
Personally, I tend to be more conservative with my growth predictions. After all, before the first spike of 2013, I said we'd be at around $400 at the end of 2014. That was quite conservative...
