g27wr (OP)
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I like guns.
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March 13, 2014, 09:35:16 PM |
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Nice speculation and I hope you are right. But without having a stable price for a long period, I don´t see Bitcoins implemented by big companies.
How can you count bitcoin as a payment method when the price jumps daily. Just my 2 cents. And I´m no troll, I´m 90% in Bitcoin.
I agree, but I think we're seeing a stable price right now around $640-$650. If it continues and creeps up over the next 3-4 months, I'll add some check marks next to my first predictions in the coming year  |
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The Bitcoin network protocol was designed to be extremely flexible. It can be used to create timed transactions, escrow transactions, multi-signature transactions, etc. The current features of the client only hint at what will be possible in the future.
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hellscabane
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March 13, 2014, 10:57:47 PM |
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My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000
Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact. It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize. That's fair, I only mention it because when I read that part, tons of flags went off in my head. I actually think you have a reasonably lucid justification for the price points and development along the way. I agree that the success that Overstock has had will likely materialize into something much more significant and adoption by a Fortune 100 retail company would be a huge step. Although Bitcoin is still yet to be adopted by a Fortune 500 retail company. What I could imagine happening is there being major companies that transact in BTC for the convenience for most people. Agreed. Once a big player such as Google, Walmart, etc adopt it, I think we'll see an increase in value like nothing else in history. My cap of $25,000 could be way off. It may be closer to $100,000. Some say that's a crazy value, but it is mathematically possible. $2T is theoretically possible in 4-5 years, although that's asking for a 250 times increase in market growth. Sure, a near similar factor happened in the last 4 years, but this time we'd be starting with a much larger base. Personally, I tend to be more conservative with my growth predictions. After all, before the first spike of 2013, I said we'd be at around $400 at the end of 2014. That was quite conservative... |
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alexeft
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March 14, 2014, 09:55:49 AM |
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2016 will have a HUGE jump due to mining reward halving.
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harkonnen
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March 14, 2014, 10:58:07 AM |
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Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.
does anyone else see the irony here?  You are not good at comprehension. OP is trying to present his bullshit as of some kind of scientific accuracy or credibility. What I'm trying to say is 'my simple speculation of gut feeling' is as much accurate and credible as OP's speculation. Capisci? |
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porcupine87
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March 14, 2014, 11:13:06 AM |
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Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.
the market cannot be explained by a formula, because people are irrational. all one needs is a measure of sentiment, basic fundamental knowledge, and chart reading for entry and exit. No, people are rational, but prices have to do with expectations. And expectations are unpredictable and follow no formula. But sure. Take 1000 stocks and predict future prices based on a formula. I think a few of them will behave like predicted. Why? Because of stochastics. Pic a number on the roulette table for 100 times. You will be right 3 times. But does this mean, you predicted it? |
"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work - whereas economics represents how it actually does work." Freakonomics
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g27wr (OP)
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I like guns.
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March 15, 2014, 12:36:41 AM |
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I see us around $10,000 by the end of 2014. If we hit that general price area then I suppose 2016 will be in the hundreds of thousand dollars range.
This is judging by the trend line.
Of course, if we deviate wildly from that then all bets are off.
It's definitely possible. I just don't see it happening this year, but you could be right. |
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