The impact of war on global economy.

[Argoo]

The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service said the Kremlin is preparing for a possible conflict with NATO that could arise in the next decade, in particular by moving to a mass army model.

Nobody cares what that US sockpuppet has to say. Estonia is de-facto governed by the US. These poor Estonian guys just literally receive their press-releases and speeches from the US embassy. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service = CIA. They keep whining about Russia attacking them for like last 20-25 years or so already.

As the intelligence report explains, Russia's intentions are evidenced by army reforms initiated by Russian Defense Minister Shoigu. In particular, the Russians decided to eliminate the joint strategic commands and return to the model of command and control by types of forces and special forces. Thus, in the northwestern part of the Russian Federation, the Baltic and Northern Fleet will be transferred to the direct subordination of the Russian Navy, and the air defense will be subordinated to the Aerospace Forces. Military districts will begin to function as territorial military commands.

How can these reforms be a proof of Russia preparing an attack on the Baltics?

Another change: on February 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree “On military-administrative separation.” Now in Russia the Western Military District (WMD) will be disbanded, and in its place the Leningrad (LPO) and Moscow (MPO) military districts will be formed, as was the case before 2010. The decree, according to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), is a sign that Russia is preparing for war against NATO. This is due to the fact that the LPO will now cover the area along the northeastern border of NATO, and the MVO will border the northeastern part of Ukraine and Poland. This does not stretch the strategic focus, as in the case of the Western Military District, and will allow the Russian Federation to simultaneously field troops against NATO countries, optimize command and control over troops for waging war in Ukraine.

This is Russia's response to a further unreasonable NATO expansion (Finland + Sweden).

No, you are definitely a Russian, if not by nationality, then by the great imperial Russian ideology. Finland and Sweden submitted their applications to join NATO after Russia carried out a large-scale military invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Isn't this a sufficient justification for joining this alliance, when they saw how Russia is trying to brazenly and brutally destroy a neighboring state? On the other hand, only the people of Finland and Sweden, as well as the government they elected, can determine their foreign policy course, and no Russia has the right to tell them here.
Russia has already attacked the borders of Finland with refugees from third countries, as it previously tried to do on the Belarusian-Polish border. Therefore, Finland was forced to completely close the border with Russia since last fall.

As for Russia’s preparations for an attack on NATO countries, in particular the Baltic countries, in this matter each country relies on its own sources, including its intelligence data, and publishes only its conclusions, and not the facts about such preparations. From the point of view of Kremlin propaganda, of course, all countries that have not fallen under Russian influence are puppets of the United States.

Until the very last day before the attack on Ukraine, Putin and his circle denied at all official levels the possibility of an attack on it. Therefore, European countries already know that the Putin regime cannot be taken at its word. And since the Kremlin’s mouthpieces periodically continue to threaten a good half of European countries with various methods of military attack, even this is enough for these countries to consider such a threat real. Partly because of this, Europe is now increasing the size and armament of its army, increasing the production of the defense industry and continues to provide all possible assistance to Ukraine to protect it from Russian occupiers.

[Gormicsta]

1. Increase in the national GDP is least likely to be caused by a war.
2. Oil is considered the most crucial resource in modern warfare.
3. War affects the stock market by causing a decline in stock prices.

What do you guys think? Is this true or false?

The other two ideas aren't as straightforward as true or false. Statement number two is true: while war often causes a drop in the value of stocks, this is frequently not the case. during the seasons of conflict, commodities may rise because buyers believe industries that give services and products to military personnel are more secure. Finally, while war usually results in price increases, it is not a given conclusion. It relies on a number of circumstances, including the seriousness of the war and the country's general financial situation.

[sekalitas]

1. Increase in the national GDP is least likely to be caused by a war.
2. Oil is considered the most crucial resource in modern warfare.
3. War affects the stock market by causing a decline in stock prices.

What do you guys think? Is this true or false?

1.Generally true. Wars often lead to destruction of infrastructure, disruption of trade, and loss of human capital. While there can be short-term boosts from defense spending, sustained economic growth is unlikely during a prolonged war.

2.This is largely accurate. Oil fuels military vehicles, ships, and aircraft. Disruptions to oil supplies can severely hinder military operations, making it a vital strategic resource.

3.True, but it's a simplification. Wars introduce uncertainty and instability, leading investors to become risk-averse. However, specific industries like defense and oil may see their stocks rise due to increased demand.

Overall, your statements reflect common effects of war on the economy, but it's essential to remember that  the economic impact of war is always complex and depends on the specific conflict, its duration, and the nations involved.

[Argoo]

If Ukraine is not helped, it will be conquered by a stronger Russia, after which Russia will certainly attack the Baltic countries - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. At the same time, Russia will force Ukrainians to fight on its side. Therefore, evil, if not stopped in time, will grow throughout the world. Other authoritarian states such as North Korea, Iran, China will take advantage of the weakness of democracy and also begin their wars of conquest. Then this will lead to the Third World War.

What makes you think so? Have you got any proof? Any source to support your claim? Russia does not need the Baltic States. These countries are tiny, have no valuable resources and are protected by NATO as member states. Russia is not ready to take on NATO now and won't be in foreseeable future.

Oddly enough, it is the war in Ukraine that has dragged on into its third year and failures on the Ukrainian front that can force Putin’s Russia to attack the Baltic countries as well. Russia has long shown that its leadership is completely inadequate and its actions are not particularly amenable to rational logic. These NATO countries are very vulnerable from a geographical point of view to Russia. It will be very difficult for NATO countries to deploy their forces and it will take a very long time. Russia may take such a reckless step to force Europe to negotiate peace with it in Ukraine on its terms.

On the other hand, Russia is very interested in the Suwalki corridor, which is located between Poland and Lithuania and connects Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. This became very relevant when Sweden and Finland recently became new NATO members and the Baltic Sea effectively became an internal sea of NATO countries. Therefore, the seizure of the Suwalki corridor recently became the subject of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko at their last meeting in Moscow.

[MiF]

The war is a very difficult situation and everyone will surely become affected specially when the country who engaged the war is the main supplier of fuel, gasoline, oil, etc.,there is a big possiblity that their product price will rise and leads to a very high implation and make everyone suffer a financial crisis, so we need to pray that all the war will end and we may have a one united world under god to avoid this war for good.

[Fortify]

1. Increase in the national GDP is least likely to be caused by a war.
2. Oil is considered the most crucial resource in modern warfare.
3. War affects the stock market by causing a decline in stock prices.

What do you guys think? Is this true or false?

War is a destructive force and in the current age it shows great weakness, at least when you do it in a way that Russia has done - attacking a direct neighbor, but not being able to punch a decisive throw and now deteriorating their own economy every single day it continues. You could say it was inevitable, as Putin  becomes a weaker old man every day, he wanted this one last flex to try and claw back something for Russia, but we he falls - and he will - it will all go back to Ukraine and this whole affair will have been a colossal waste for both sides - plus Russia has made an enemy for a very long time that will never want to trade with them again in future and will do everything to undermine them

[electronicash]

the war in Ukraine vs Russia alone already brought the gas and oil prices to the roof. if we are to see a higher price i guess its all up to NATO as to what they are to do to poke the bear. it's not worth it to go into a war when your country is not going to get richer after the war. whether you win, it will still be devastating and the trauma to the kids.

if China is going to be drag into a war, the whole world will be affected. not just ten involved countries.

[rhodelmabanal]

1. Increase in the national GDP is least likely to be caused by a war.
2. Oil is considered the most crucial resource in modern warfare.
3. War affects the stock market by causing a decline in stock prices.

What do you guys think? Is this true or false?

War has a big effect but it depends on what country are involved, if the country who is involved is the number one source of fuel the it is possible that the effect on it to the country who imported a fuel to them is very big, all goods or daily needs products will rise because fuel is very important specially in transportation goods from one place to another,so even if there are only two countries involved every country around them will be affected.

[serveria.com]

Oddly enough, it is the war in Ukraine that has dragged on into its third year and failures on the Ukrainian front that can force Putin’s Russia to attack the Baltic countries as well. Russia has long shown that its leadership is completely inadequate and its actions are not particularly amenable to rational logic. These NATO countries are very vulnerable from a geographical point of view to Russia. It will be very difficult for NATO countries to deploy their forces and it will take a very long time. Russia may take such a reckless step to force Europe to negotiate peace with it in Ukraine on its terms.

On the other hand, Russia is very interested in the Suwalki corridor, which is located between Poland and Lithuania and connects Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. This became very relevant when Sweden and Finland recently became new NATO members and the Baltic Sea effectively became an internal sea of NATO countries. Therefore, the seizure of the Suwalki corridor recently became the subject of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko at their last meeting in Moscow.

So, you have zero proof? Right? I thought so... 

[Argoo]

Oddly enough, it is the war in Ukraine that has dragged on into its third year and failures on the Ukrainian front that can force Putin’s Russia to attack the Baltic countries as well. Russia has long shown that its leadership is completely inadequate and its actions are not particularly amenable to rational logic. These NATO countries are very vulnerable from a geographical point of view to Russia. It will be very difficult for NATO countries to deploy their forces and it will take a very long time. Russia may take such a reckless step to force Europe to negotiate peace with it in Ukraine on its terms.

On the other hand, Russia is very interested in the Suwalki corridor, which is located between Poland and Lithuania and connects Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. This became very relevant when Sweden and Finland recently became new NATO members and the Baltic Sea effectively became an internal sea of NATO countries. Therefore, the seizure of the Suwalki corridor recently became the subject of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko at their last meeting in Moscow.

So, you have zero proof? Right? I thought so... 

And what evidence do you need and most importantly, what do you consider appropriate evidence. Do you want me to publish secret documents from the relevant Kremlin offices about plans to seize the Suwalki corridor and its timing? But even then you will call it fake.

Let's remember that until the last day of the large-scale attack on Ukraine in 2024, Putin assured at all official levels that he was not going to attack Ukraine. And in the appearances of “little green men” in Ukrainian Crimea back in 2014, he also did not recognize Russian soldiers for a long time and admitted this after a long time, when such denial was stupid and pointed to Putin’s deceitful nature. The same thing happened with the appearance of Russian soldiers on the border between the so-called DPR and LPR and Ukraine. At all levels, Russia declared that “they are not there,” for which Russians there began to be called “ichtamnets.”

Therefore, Putin’s Russia will not recognize the fact of preparation of such an attack and will deny it in every possible way, even if the facts of such preparation become obvious. Europe and NATO already know this and are working on various scenarios for such an attack, and most importantly, they are actually preparing for it.

[bittraffic]

Oddly enough, it is the war in Ukraine that has dragged on into its third year and failures on the Ukrainian front that can force Putin’s Russia to attack the Baltic countries as well. Russia has long shown that its leadership is completely inadequate and its actions are not particularly amenable to rational logic. These NATO countries are very vulnerable from a geographical point of view to Russia. It will be very difficult for NATO countries to deploy their forces and it will take a very long time. Russia may take such a reckless step to force Europe to negotiate peace with it in Ukraine on its terms.

On the other hand, Russia is very interested in the Suwalki corridor, which is located between Poland and Lithuania and connects Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. This became very relevant when Sweden and Finland recently became new NATO members and the Baltic Sea effectively became an internal sea of NATO countries. Therefore, the seizure of the Suwalki corridor recently became the subject of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko at their last meeting in Moscow.

So, you have zero proof? Right? I thought so... 

And what evidence do you need and most importantly, what do you consider appropriate evidence. Do you want me to publish secret documents from the relevant Kremlin offices about plans to seize the Suwalki corridor and its timing? But even then you will call it fake.

Let's remember that until the last day of the large-scale attack on Ukraine in 2024, Putin assured at all official levels that he was not going to attack Ukraine. And in the appearances of “little green men” in Ukrainian Crimea back in 2014, he also did not recognize Russian soldiers for a long time and admitted this after a long time, when such denial was stupid and pointed to Putin’s deceitful nature. The same thing happened with the appearance of Russian soldiers on the border between the so-called DPR and LPR and Ukraine. At all levels, Russia declared that “they are not there,” for which Russians there began to be called “ichtamnets.”

Therefore, Putin’s Russia will not recognize the fact of preparation of such an attack and will deny it in every possible way, even if the facts of such preparation become obvious. Europe and NATO already know this and are working on various scenarios for such an attack, and most importantly, they are actually preparing for it.

NATO or BRICS are like a pack of wolves. If their leader is weak, everything falls apart. It is a slow decline but so far whoever is winning means they are the stronger pack that will dominate in an area.

I have seen both propaganda of each side, and all there is that is obvious is that only Antony Blinken travels from one country to another while the world is burning and him sings Rockin in the Free World in a Kyiv bar.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_oVdz1oNc8

[Argoo]

Oddly enough, it is the war in Ukraine that has dragged on into its third year and failures on the Ukrainian front that can force Putin’s Russia to attack the Baltic countries as well. Russia has long shown that its leadership is completely inadequate and its actions are not particularly amenable to rational logic. These NATO countries are very vulnerable from a geographical point of view to Russia. It will be very difficult for NATO countries to deploy their forces and it will take a very long time. Russia may take such a reckless step to force Europe to negotiate peace with it in Ukraine on its terms.

On the other hand, Russia is very interested in the Suwalki corridor, which is located between Poland and Lithuania and connects Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. This became very relevant when Sweden and Finland recently became new NATO members and the Baltic Sea effectively became an internal sea of NATO countries. Therefore, the seizure of the Suwalki corridor recently became the subject of conversation between Putin and Lukashenko at their last meeting in Moscow.

So, you have zero proof? Right? I thought so... 

And here is the proof.   A document prepared by the Ministry of Defense appeared on the website of the Russian government, according to which Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region, as its internal sea waters. The 40-year-old resolution of the USSR Council of Ministers regulating the borders in the Baltic Sea is proposed by the Ministry of Defense to be partially “recognized as invalid.”

Unilateral change of existing borders at the expense of the territories of other states or other deterioration of their geographical position actually means a declaration of war on these states. And to whom is Russia actually declaring war?   Finland and one of the Baltic countries. Of course, the possibility cannot be ruled out that Putin, as always, is bluffing. He is used to acting with arrogance and intimidation, but now this could well lead to a full-scale war with NATO, for which Russia is clearly not ready.

https://abn.org.ua/ru/novosti/putin-nachinaet-gibridnuyu-agressiyu-protiv-nato-chto-na-eto-otvetit-severoatlanticheskij-soyuz/