Can The Butler Model Be Used To Describe Bitcoin?

[sase007]

For those who don't know, the Butler model is this:

(c)BBC Bitesize (probably)

Can this be used to describe both Bitcoin's Adoption and Bitcoin's Price.

What are your opinions and where to you think Bitcoin is?

Obviously "tourists" would be replaced by "users"

[r0ach]

Looks like kind of a pointless model to me.  After the "development" period, it just leaves you with some type of assumed 50/50 split as to whether the business succeeds or fails.  I would assume people don't invest large amounts of money into things with a coin's flip chance of losing it all, otherwise they would just play dice in a back alley.  Without any form of statistical analysis, it's just a far too simplified picture of "sometimes investments are good...sometimes investments are bad...".

[biggus dickus]

It does look like a model that describes all or nothing scenarios, and that's not applicable to Bitcoin. There is a model that regularly gets posted here which fits each Bitcoin rally, and has repeated over the years. That's a closer match to the way Bitcoin behaves than the Butler Model.

[~Bitcoin~]

Bitcoin always don't follow that decline path, and bitcoin is also under development parallely and its adoption is also being expanded.
No we can't say bitcoin as butler model.

[sase007]

It does look like a model that describes all or nothing scenarios, and that's not applicable to Bitcoin. There is a model that regularly gets posted here which fits each Bitcoin rally, and has repeated over the years. That's a closer match to the way Bitcoin behaves than the Butler Model.

Sorry, but do you have a link to that? Where I can view this model and decide where bitcoin is along it?

Looks like kind of a pointless model to me.  After the "development" period, it just leaves you with some type of assumed 50/50 split as to whether the business succeeds or fails.  I would assume people don't invest large amounts of money into things with a coin's flip chance of losing it all, otherwise they would just play dice in a back alley.  Without any form of statistical analysis, it's just a far too simplified picture of "sometimes investments are good...sometimes investments are bad...".

I think that once it reaches past a first mass adoption, the same thing happens again.
It goes up wih development and adoption.
It steadies.
It then either declines or rises.
If it rises, the profits are then placed back into the scheme to increase it so once it has gone past the first cycle, it probably has a greater chance of assing the next.

[maokoto]

I do not think that it descrives it too well. After consolidation, it can just stay more or less the same. In fact, it is a little what is happening now I think. Some small adoption, some small ammount of people dropping it.

[NorrisK]

Where in that model are we now according to you? I would guess somewhere between involvement and development, on the lower half of development.

That would mean that there is still a long way to go for bitcoin before that decision needs to be made.

[sase007]

Where in that model are we now according to you? I would guess somewhere between involvement and development, on the lower half of development.

That would mean that there is still a long way to go for bitcoin before that decision needs to be made.

To me? I think that we are around 3 and 4. Development andd consolidation. As we are finally starting to increase are market of Bitcoin and are trying to get people that maybe are not Computer Scientists, to take a second look at Bitcoin and look at it from whatever view they see it (whether they are into Computer Science, Polatics, Science, Maths, Goegraphy.
I think we have to start applying regular concepts used in other subjects to describe Bitcoin.

If we just use computers, then simply a mention of the word "crypto currencies" can get people confused and thinking that Bitcoin is more confusing than it actually is.

[biggus dickus]

It does look like a model that describes all or nothing scenarios, and that's not applicable to Bitcoin. There is a model that regularly gets posted here which fits each Bitcoin rally, and has repeated over the years. That's a closer match to the way Bitcoin behaves than the Butler Model.

Sorry, but do you have a link to that? Where I can view this model and decide where bitcoin is along it?

Variations on a theme of it have been posted countless times here. These are two of them, but the basic idea is what you see on the chart keeps repeating over and over again. People have compared the run up and crash of each of Bitcoin's ATHs to those charts, and it's kept on repeating for years now.

[sase007]

It does look like a model that describes all or nothing scenarios, and that's not applicable to Bitcoin. There is a model that regularly gets posted here which fits each Bitcoin rally, and has repeated over the years. That's a closer match to the way Bitcoin behaves than the Butler Model.

Sorry, but do you have a link to that? Where I can view this model and decide where bitcoin is along it?

Variations on a theme of it have been posted countless times here. These are two of them, but the basic idea is what you see on the chart keeps repeating over and over again. People have compared the run up and crash of each of Bitcoin's ATHs to those charts, and it's kept on repeating for years now.

Were these made before or after the events of November 2013?

If so, that has done quite well to explain it. After ope, I assume that it iterates back, increasing the "peak" and the "trough" until they reach a similar amount.