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Author Topic: EVOLUTION of bitcointalk.org 1 year later  (Read 302 times)
coinlocket$ (OP)
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May 10, 2020, 12:45:40 PM
Last edit: May 10, 2020, 05:07:41 PM by coinlocket$
Merited by suchmoon (7), hugeblack (5), Lauda (2), Halab (2), Daniel91 (1), dkbit98 (1), Heisenberg_Hunter (1)
 #1

CONSIDERATIONS


  • It is over 1 year later since the start of the revolution, I wanna believe that the change is started cause of my thread here: Is the Default trust system still working/active?. Theymos was active on that thread and shortly after the new DT system has started.
    Me? I'm still active on the forum a bit less from last year got several problems in Real and now is not a great time.

Anyway, how the situation of the DT is going? Are we too many now? Do we need more restrictions? I think this is my 1st time since the introduction of the new system out the DT1 because is capped to 100.
  • And the cause of RNG will determine the big variation of numbers of DT2 and even bigger of DT3-DT4 (no one cares about them anyway  Grin)
  • The numbers of DT1 and DT2 before the introduction of the new DT system can be found here Is the Default trust system still working/active?
  • The updated log of DT1 monthly update can be found here: DT update log
  • The updated number of DT2 can be found on this LoyceV post here: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings
  • The updated number of DT2 for the months of March 2019 and April 2019 are not tracked so I guessed a probable number around 350
  • The Δ% is based on the previous month
  • Data has been handwritten so some errors may be possible


People on DT1 and DT2


___________________________________________________________________________________________
MONTHYEAR DT1DT2Δ% DT1Δ% DT2DT1 EXLUDED
February201913182000
March*201968350423,192,30
April*20198035017,700
May2019883711060
June201911142426,114,311
July2019104390-6,3-8,04
August20191064451,914,16
September2019103372-2,8-16,53
October20191114387,717,711
November20191144572,74,314
December20191245728,825,224
January20201244130-27,824
February20201264591,611,126
March20201314654,01,331
April2020130496-0,86,730
May20201345073,12,234


Visual




Prediction


We have and AVG Δ% increase of 1.8% in DT1 on the last 10 months where data are in a stable condition and a Δ% of 2.8% in DT2


CONCLUSION Too Long; Didn't Read


According to the model by April 2021 we will have more excluded DT1 by the cap than included on the 100 and around 1000 DT2


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May 10, 2020, 12:53:35 PM
 #2

Try making some forecasts based on this data. Would be interesting to compare looking back sometime down the road. Smiley

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July 08, 2020, 03:12:25 PM
Merited by DdmrDdmr (3)
 #3

Just putting here one update after 2 months.





People on DT1 and DT2


___________________________________________________________________________________________
MONTHYEAR DT1DT2Δ% DT1Δ% DT2DT1 EXLUDED
February201913182000
March*201968350423,076923192,307692310
April*20198035017,6470588200
May2019883711060
June201911142426,1363636414,2857142911
July2019104390-6,306306306-8,0188679254
August20191064451,92307692314,10256416
September2019103372-2,830188679-16,404494383
October20191114387,76699029117,7419354811
November20191144572,7027027034,33789954314
December20191245728,77192982525,1641137924
January20201244130-27,797202824
February20201264591,61290322611,1380145326
March20201314653,9682539681,30718954231
April2020130496-0,7633587796,66666666730
May20201345073,0769230772,21774193534
June20201404184,47761194-17,5542406340
July2020128441-8,5714285715,50239234428

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.


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July 08, 2020, 03:43:40 PM
 #4

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number?  It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago.  :/

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July 08, 2020, 04:09:59 PM
 #5

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number?  It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago.  :/

bpip.org

The number of DT1 I use are from the Theymos' montly snapshot here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg54362943#msg54362943

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October 11, 2020, 10:02:33 PM
Merited by hugeblack (4), DdmrDdmr (3)
 #6

 Grin

The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth.

We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded.



Update after summer.




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