EVOLUTION of bitcointalk.org 1 year later

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CONSIDERATIONS

• It is over 1 year later since the start of the revolution, I wanna believe that the change is started cause of my thread here: Is the Default trust system still working/active?. Theymos was active on that thread and shortly after the new DT system has started.
  Me? I'm still active on the forum a bit less from last year got several problems in Real and now is not a great time.

Anyway, how the situation of the DT is going? Are we too many now? Do we need more restrictions? I think this is my 1st time since the introduction of the new system out the DT1 because is capped to 100.

• And the cause of RNG will determine the big variation of numbers of DT2 and even bigger of DT3-DT4 (no one cares about them anyway  )
• The numbers of DT1 and DT2 before the introduction of the new DT system can be found here Is the Default trust system still working/active?
• The updated log of DT1 monthly update can be found here: DT update log
• The updated number of DT2 can be found on this LoyceV post here: Complete overview of users on DT1 and DT2 and their ratings
• The updated number of DT2 for the months of March 2019 and April 2019 are not tracked so I guessed a probable number around 350
• The Δ% is based on the previous month
• Data has been handwritten so some errors may be possible

People on DT1 and DT2

_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________
MONTH	YEAR	DT1	DT2	Δ% DT1	Δ% DT2	DT1 EXLUDED
February	2019	13	182	0	0	0
March*	2019	68	350	423,1	92,3	0
April*	2019	80	350	17,7	0	0
May	2019	88	371	10	6	0
June	2019	111	424	26,1	14,3	11
July	2019	104	390	-6,3	-8,0	4
August	2019	106	445	1,9	14,1	6
September	2019	103	372	-2,8	-16,5	3
October	2019	111	438	7,7	17,7	11
November	2019	114	457	2,7	4,3	14
December	2019	124	572	8,8	25,2	24
January	2020	124	413	0	-27,8	24
February	2020	126	459	1,6	11,1	26
March	2020	131	465	4,0	1,3	31
April	2020	130	496	-0,8	6,7	30
May	2020	134	507	3,1	2,2	34

Visual

Prediction

We have and AVG Δ% increase of 1.8% in DT1 on the last 10 months where data are in a stable condition and a Δ% of 2.8% in DT2

CONCLUSION Too Long; Didn't Read

According to the model by April 2021 we will have more excluded DT1 by the cap than included on the 100 and around 1000 DT2

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[Lauda]

Try making some forecasts based on this data. Would be interesting to compare looking back sometime down the road.

[coinlocket$]

Just putting here one update after 2 months.

People on DT1 and DT2

_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________	_____________
MONTH	YEAR	DT1	DT2	Δ% DT1	Δ% DT2	DT1 EXLUDED
February	2019	13	182	0	0	0
March*	2019	68	350	423,0769231	92,30769231	0
April*	2019	80	350	17,64705882	0	0
May	2019	88	371	10	6	0
June	2019	111	424	26,13636364	14,28571429	11
July	2019	104	390	-6,306306306	-8,018867925	4
August	2019	106	445	1,923076923	14,1025641	6
September	2019	103	372	-2,830188679	-16,40449438	3
October	2019	111	438	7,766990291	17,74193548	11
November	2019	114	457	2,702702703	4,337899543	14
December	2019	124	572	8,771929825	25,16411379	24
January	2020	124	413	0	-27,7972028	24
February	2020	126	459	1,612903226	11,13801453	26
March	2020	131	465	3,968253968	1,307189542	31
April	2020	130	496	-0,763358779	6,666666667	30
May	2020	134	507	3,076923077	2,217741935	34
June	2020	140	418	4,47761194	-17,55424063	40
July	2020	128	441	-8,571428571	5,502392344	28

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

[Vod]

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number?  It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago.  :/

bpip.org

[coinlocket$]

June 2020 was right on the prediction, while July it is not.

Are you taking into account the plummeting active user number?  It dropped to five figures just a couple weeks ago.  :/

bpip.org

The number of DT1 I use are from the Theymos' montly snapshot here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5117330.msg54362943#msg54362943

[coinlocket$]

 

The situation quite stable was expecting a little more but the summer could influence the growth.

We are at a stable value of 40 DT1 excluded.



Update after summer.