Bitmain Antminer S6 and S7 Speculation

[dmwardjr]

We might see S6 somewhere in the second part of this year. S7, I highly doubt, not with these BTC prices.

I can see your estimate of S6 not coming out till Q3 or Q4 of this year IF NO S7 were to come out.  However, an S7 has to be on the way for THIS year.  Why?  Because the competition will have a 3rd generation rig out by Q3 or Q4 of THIS year.  Do you honestly think Spondooliestech would go an entire year without new equipment on the market and that new equipment being a 3rd generation rig?

Bitmain, would come out with an S7 THIS year as well to compete.  IF my speculation holds out for an S7 in Q3 or Q4, it only makes sense for an S6 to come out this year and soon.  Why soon?  Look at how short lived the S4 was...  Because the S5 came out shortly afterwards.  To make the S6 less short lived like the S4, it would behove Bitmain to come out with it sooner [say... April or May].  Then they would come out with an S7 (3rd Gen.) in Q4 of this year more than likely.

It actually makes more sense for a 3rd generation S7 rig to come out with low prices of BTC.  It would actually get more sells to offset the low price of BTC by paying for less power.

huge risk to build the s-7 with a tape out of 22 16 or 14 sized chips as a full sized  tape out of 1000's of chips = $$

The s-6 would be the same chips.  I see the s-6 sooner then June 1 .

 I see the s-7 in Sept or Oct

All of the above is based on coins running 200 to 300 usd each.

I don't think the price matters.  Competition will put out new rigs regardless.  I would think so anyway...  That's what has me believing the S7 will come out in Q3 or Q4 regardless.  It's a sure money maker if the S7 is more power efficient to offset the lower price of BTC [IF the price of BTC is lower at that time].

I honestly believe the S7 would be the same form factor as an S3 and S5 [Requiring a PSU].  This would reduce costs of the rig.  I think Bitmain knows they can still charge the same costs per GH as what they are now if the price of BTC remains the same or is lower.  

It will be interesting to see what the difficulty does in the next 6 months if the price of BTC remains the same.  If the difficulty shoots up, this will also justify making and selling a more power efficient rig.

[1715237427]

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[notlist3d]

We might see S6 somewhere in the second part of this year. S7, I highly doubt, not with these BTC prices.

I can see your estimate of S6 not coming out till Q3 or Q4 of this year IF NO S7 were to come out.  However, an S7 has to be on the way for THIS year.  Why?  Because the competition will have a 3rd generation rig out by Q3 or Q4 of THIS year.  Do you honestly think Spondooliestech would go an entire year without new equipment on the market and that new equipment being a 3rd generation rig?

Bitmain, would come out with an S7 THIS year as well to compete.  IF my speculation holds out for an S7 in Q3 or Q4, it only makes sense for an S6 to come out this year and soon.  Why soon?  Look at how short lived the S4 was...  Because the S5 came out shortly afterwards.  To make the S6 less short lived like the S4, it would behove Bitmain to come out with it sooner [say... April or May].  Then they would come out with an S7 (3rd Gen.) in Q4 of this year more than likely.

It actually makes more sense for a 3rd generation S7 rig to come out with low prices of BTC.  It would actually get more sells to offset the low price of BTC by paying for less power.

huge risk to build the s-7 with a tape out of 22 16 or 14 sized chips as a full sized  tape out of 1000's of chips = $$

The s-6 would be the same chips.  I see the s-6 sooner then June 1 .

 I see the s-7 in Sept or Oct

All of the above is based on coins running 200 to 300 usd each.

I don't think the price matters.  Competition will put out new rigs regardless.  I would think so anyway...  That's what has me believing the S7 will come out in Q3 or Q4 regardless.  It's a sure money maker if the S7 is more power efficient to offset the lower price of BTC [IF the price of BTC is lower at that time].

I honestly believe the S7 would be the same form factor as an S3 and S5 [Requiring a PSU].  This would reduce costs of the rig.  I think Bitmain knows they can still charge the same costs per GH as what they are now if the price of BTC remains the same or is lower.  It will be interesting to see what the difficulty does in the next 6 months if the price of BTC remains the same.

I think price is a huge factor.  If it was 1k per BTC again they would throw a ton of cash quickly to get a new generation.   

But with price so low it does not make a company want to throw away money.  It means tighter margins, and being better with their cash.    I don't think we will get the 6 months but I also don't think we will have a quick arms race to next nm chips super quick.

[dmwardjr]

We might see S6 somewhere in the second part of this year. S7, I highly doubt, not with these BTC prices.

I can see your estimate of S6 not coming out till Q3 or Q4 of this year IF NO S7 were to come out.  However, an S7 has to be on the way for THIS year.  Why?  Because the competition will have a 3rd generation rig out by Q3 or Q4 of THIS year.  Do you honestly think Spondooliestech would go an entire year without new equipment on the market and that new equipment being a 3rd generation rig?

Bitmain, would come out with an S7 THIS year as well to compete.  IF my speculation holds out for an S7 in Q3 or Q4, it only makes sense for an S6 to come out this year and soon.  Why soon?  Look at how short lived the S4 was...  Because the S5 came out shortly afterwards.  To make the S6 less short lived like the S4, it would behove Bitmain to come out with it sooner [say... April or May].  Then they would come out with an S7 (3rd Gen.) in Q4 of this year more than likely.

It actually makes more sense for a 3rd generation S7 rig to come out with low prices of BTC.  It would actually get more sells to offset the low price of BTC by paying for less power.

huge risk to build the s-7 with a tape out of 22 16 or 14 sized chips as a full sized  tape out of 1000's of chips = $$

The s-6 would be the same chips.  I see the s-6 sooner then June 1 .

 I see the s-7 in Sept or Oct

All of the above is based on coins running 200 to 300 usd each.

I don't think the price matters.  Competition will put out new rigs regardless.  I would think so anyway...  That's what has me believing the S7 will come out in Q3 or Q4 regardless.  It's a sure money maker if the S7 is more power efficient to offset the lower price of BTC [IF the price of BTC is lower at that time].

I honestly believe the S7 would be the same form factor as an S3 and S5 [Requiring a PSU].  This would reduce costs of the rig.  I think Bitmain knows they can still charge the same costs per GH as what they are now if the price of BTC remains the same or is lower.  It will be interesting to see what the difficulty does in the next 6 months if the price of BTC remains the same.

I think price is a huge factor.  If it was 1k per BTC again they would throw a ton of cash quickly to get a new generation.   

But with price so low it does not make a company want to throw away money.  It means tighter margins, and being better with their cash.    I don't think we will get the 6 months but I also don't think we will have a quick arms race to next nm chips super quick.

I hope you're right.  I don't care to have an arms race until I'm relocated from Alabama to Washington State.  The price can go up or down as much as it wants to then.  As long as it does not go below $60.00, I'll be fine until the blocks halve.  Then [When the blocks halve] the price needs to be at least $120.00 for me to do a little better than break even.  And that's with present efficiency of the S5 or under clocked SP20.

[alh]

I buy into the maxim:

Mining follows price. It's a slow response, but when price goes up, mining WILL follow eventually, and vice-versa.

I am 99% sure that Price does NOT follow mining. If it was I'd be way better off than when I started in July of 2013. As I recall BTC was about $100, and difficulty was about 26 million. I paid way too much for my 333Mhz Block Erupter stick miner.

[notlist3d]

I buy into the maxim:

Mining follows price. It's a slow response, but when price goes up, mining WILL follow eventually, and vice-versa.

I am 99% sure that Price does NOT follow mining. If it was I'd be way better off than when I started in July of 2013. As I recall BTC was about $100, and difficulty was about 26 million. I paid way too much for my 333Mhz Block Erupter stick miner.

Price is not jumping to much it's been pretty steady at a low price.   That is part of why I don't see this being a fast race.

Also we all overpaid on the block erupter if I remember right there was a deal to get so many cheaper depending on how many you bought.

[dmwardjr]

I buy into the maxim:

Mining follows price. It's a slow response, but when price goes up, mining WILL follow eventually, and vice-versa.

I am 99% sure that Price does NOT follow mining. If it was I'd be way better off than when I started in July of 2013. As I recall BTC was about $100, and difficulty was about 26 million. I paid way too much for my 333Mhz Block Erupter stick miner.

Yes, mining follows price.  Not the other way around as some on bitcointalk.org have argued.  I'm actually kind of glad I did not start mining until September 22, 2014.  I started out with 10 S3's; then bought 6 more two weeks later; then bought 5 S4's and two more S3's about 3 weeks after that.  That put me at 18 S3's and 5 S5's for about 3 months before I bought 15 SP20's from Spondooliestech.com.  I just recently added six S5's.  I've also gone to server grade PSU's instead of the Corsair AX860's.  I'm still using the Corsair's on S3's but I'm not buying any more of them.

The following is my update on "Difficulty"

I thought miners would like to see the following good news developing every difficulty change:


Bitcoin difficulty on Mar 24 2014 was 5,006,860,589 [BTC-e $588.71].  On Mar 22 2015 it was 46,717,549,645 [BTC-e $266.36].  That means the difficulty rose 9.3 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Feb 17 2014 was 3,129,573,175 [BTC-e $612.00].  On Feb 22 2015 it was 46,684,376,317 [BTC-e $230.23].  That means the difficulty rose 14.9 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 24 2014 was 2,193,847,870 [BTC-e $774.98].  On Jan 27 2015 it was 41,272,873,895 [BTC-e $252.58].  That means the difficulty rose 18 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Jan 02 2014 was 1,418,481,395 [BTC-e $782.00].  On Dec 30 2014 it was 40,640,955,017 [BTC-e $308.86].  That means the difficulty rose 29 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Nov 29 2013   was 707,408,283 [BTC-e $1,019.60].  On Dec 02 2014 it was 40,007,470,271 [BTC-e $377.50].  That means the difficulty rose 56.5 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Oct 26 2013 was 390,928,788 [BTC-e $171.37].  On Oct 23 2014 it was 35,985,640,265 [BTC-e $354.17].  That means the difficulty rose 92 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Sep 25 2013 was 148,819,200 [BTC-e $122.55].  On Sep 25 2014 it was 34,661,425,924 [BTC-e $401.91].  That means the difficulty rose 232.9 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Aug 24 2013 was 65,750,060 [BTC-e $106.34].  On Aug 31 2014 it was 27,428,630,902 [BTC-e $475.90].  That means the difficulty rose 417.1 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Jul 22 2013 was 31,256,961 [BTC-e $84.50].  On Jul 25 2014 it was 18,736,441,558 [BTC-e $594.47].  That means the difficulty rose 599.4 times more than what it was a year prior.

Bitcoin difficulty on Jun 29 2013 was 21,335,329 [BitStamp $88.83].  On Jun 29 2014 it was 16,818,461,371 [BitStamp $599.86].  That means the difficulty rose 788.3 times more than what it was a year prior.

The numbers above reveal at one time we had as much as a 788.3 times increase in difficulty over a year's time.  That number has reduced to 9.3 times more than what we had the year prior.

If you look at the numbers below [curtesy of https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty] you can see what I see.  For example:  On Apr 29, 2014 the difficulty was 8,000,872,136.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 80 Billion a month from now on April 29, 2015?  
On May 24, 2014 the difficulty was 10,455,720,138.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 100.4 Billion this coming May 24th of 2015?
On Jun 29, 2014 the difficulty was 16,818,461,371.  Do you honestly think it will be close to 10 times that at 160.8 Billion on June 29, 2015?
On Aug 31, 2014 the difficulty was 27,428,630,902.  Does one really believe it will be close to 10 times this at 270.4 Billion on August 31, 2015?

The difficulty is 46.7 Billion at present.  I expect a network difficulty no higher than 55 Billion by May 24th of 2015  May 24, 2014 the difficulty was 10,455,720,138.  That would be an increase of 4.45 times what we had a year prior.  I can see only a 1.5 times more than what we had a year prior by November of 2015 IF the price of bitcoin continues at price levels between $235.00 and $335.00.

Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s

Yes, there is plenty of talk of the 3rd generation chips (rigs) coming out by the Summer of this year (2015).  The power efficiency and hash rate of these 3rd generation rigs remains to be seen.  Will 3rd generation rigs encourage miners who stopped mining to start back up again because of their power costs being above 15 cents per kWH?  I would say it's quite possible.  Especially, if the price of bitcoin remains at the $235.00 to $335.00 level.  

If bitcoin price is higher than $335.00 by the end of November, 2015, we could definitely see more miners wanting to come back into the fray.  The only issue is will they be able to buy these 3rd generation rigs from those who will manufacture them?  The demand for power efficient 3rd generation rigs could be quite high.  The 3rd and 4th quarter of 2015 will be a very interesting year indeed for the miners.

Cheers miners!

If Difficulty were to change right now, it would be 49,302,662,464.  This time a year ago it was 6,119,726,089.  That would be 8.05 times more than what it was a year ago.  The previous difficulty change was 9.3 times more than what it was a year ago.  Back the change year over year back in June of this year was 788.3 times.  I would have hated to increase my hash rate 788.3 times what I had started with a year prior to mine the same amount of bitcoin that I did a year prior.  Meaning, if I had 1,000 GH/s in June of 2013, I would have to have 788,300 GH/s a year later in June 2014 to mine the same amount of bitcoin.

I say this is a good thing for miners at the moment.  Difficulty rose exponentially for a while when we jumped from CPU mining to GPU mining.  The increase was more than 1,000 year over year shortly after the change from CPU to GPU mining.

[Bananana]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

[dmwardjr]

I buy into the maxim:

Mining follows price. It's a slow response, but when price goes up, mining WILL follow eventually, and vice-versa.

I am 99% sure that Price does NOT follow mining. If it was I'd be way better off than when I started in July of 2013. As I recall BTC was about $100, and difficulty was about 26 million. I paid way too much for my 333Mhz Block Erupter stick miner.

Price is not jumping to much it's been pretty steady at a low price.   That is part of why I don't see this being a fast race.

Also we all overpaid on the block erupter if I remember right there was a deal to get so many cheaper depending on how many you bought.

I don't see it becoming much of a race either at the moment.  Yes, block erupters did not last very long.  The S1 really didn't last very long either.  When did the S3 first come out?  The S3 has actually lasted the longest thus far among ASIC's because the difficulty has not increased as much year over year as each difficulty change passes by.  I can see the S5 lasting even longer because of the decrease in difficulty year over year compared to months prior.  The 3rd generation rigs will last even longer before they are no longer profitable if the price of BTC remains the same.

The good thing is this:  I can see the difficulty the end of August sitting at approximately 67,000,000,000.  At the end of August last year the difficulty was 27,428,630,902.  This means we will have had an increase of 2.44 times more than what it was a year prior.  This also means one would need to little more than double their hashing power from what they had a year prior.  It used to be as much as 700 times what it was a year prior.  Can you imagine having to increase your hash rate 700 times what it was a year prior to make the same thing as what you did then?  I'm very happy I'm not having to try to do that anymore.  I hope to see it get down as low as 1.5 times more than what it was a year prior.  Will we ever see that kind of increase year over year?  I'm sure we will some day.  However, I don't see it anytime soon.

[dmwardjr]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

If Bitmain comes out with another compact unit, it would more than likely begin with the letter "U" like the U3 is presently.  The U3 is at 63 GH/s.  I could see a U4 at 100 GH/s with approximately 1/2 the power of the U3.

[dmwardjr]

The more I think about it.  Now is a better time to get into bitcoin mining than it was a year ago.  One does not have to be concerned with as large of an increase in difficulty now as they did a year ago.  I can't imagine having to increase my hash rate more than 700 times what it was a year prior to mine the same amount of bitcoin that I mined a year prior.  The main thing holding most back at the moment is the price of bitcoin in relation to their power costs.  Those who move to an area with extremely low power costs stand a better chance of surviving.  Especially, when the blocks halve.

[crazyivan]

The more I think about it.  Now is a better time to get into bitcoin mining than it was a year ago.  One does not have to be concerned with as large of an increase in difficulty now as they did a year ago.  I can't imagine having to increase my hash rate more than 700 times what it was a year prior to mine the same amount of bitcoin that I mined a year prior.  The main thing holding most back at the moment is the price of bitcoin in relation to their power costs.  Those who move to an area with extremely low power costs stand a better chance of surviving.  Especially, when the blocks halve.

This may and may not be true. Yes, it s correct, we do not see those 40% monthly diff jumps anymore and I hope we ll not see this with current available hardware. However, I m sure companies are working on next gen and next next gen which might increase their efficiency big time. Probably the only limiting factor is this limping BTC price. If it starts picking up, more money will be available for development as well.

[Amph]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

they should instead try to use better fan to reduce the noise, it should be about time already, or at least make it regulable with 4 pin on the circuit board

[Bitcoin Buyer Reload]

lets wait to june and see how the s6 will perform. since the difficulty level has taken a big rise because miners did not enjoy getting little. difficulty has rise. satoshi predicted that

[Bananana]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

If Bitmain comes out with another compact unit, it would more than likely begin with the letter "U" like the U3 is presently.  The U3 is at 63 GH/s.  I could see a U4 at 100 GH/s with approximately 1/2 the power of the U3.

I actually have a typo in my previous post as I actually wanted to say 10 Th/s. U3 is good but only if it can deliver higher hash so the total hash per space is small.

[dmwardjr]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

Compact, I would think, is still quite a ways off.  Even 3rd generation will generate a lot of heat if they have a high hash rate.  It seems like to me if we are using less voltage [less amperage (meaning less wattage)], I would think the rigs would generate less heat.  I imagine it depends on the size of the rig in relation to its hash rate (number of chips).  I'm sure others on here are much more knowledgeable in this area of engineering and design than I am regarding the subject of heat generation with mining rigs.

[notlist3d]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

If Bitmain comes out with another compact unit, it would more than likely begin with the letter "U" like the U3 is presently.  The U3 is at 63 GH/s.  I could see a U4 at 100 GH/s with approximately 1/2 the power of the U3.

I actually have a typo in my previous post as I actually wanted to say 10 Th/s. U3 is good but only if it can deliver higher hash so the total hash per space is small.

I don't think we will get 10 TH from S6.  I'm guessing it has the S5 chips with more efficient design.  I would guess 4-5 TH.

10TH I think will be have to be a big thing such as next gen chips.

[dmwardjr]

The more I think about it.  Now is a better time to get into bitcoin mining than it was a year ago.  One does not have to be concerned with as large of an increase in difficulty now as they did a year ago.  I can't imagine having to increase my hash rate more than 700 times what it was a year prior to mine the same amount of bitcoin that I mined a year prior.  The main thing holding most back at the moment is the price of bitcoin in relation to their power costs.  Those who move to an area with extremely low power costs stand a better chance of surviving.  Especially, when the blocks halve.

This may and may not be true. Yes, it s correct, we do not see those 40% monthly diff jumps anymore and I hope we ll not see this with current available hardware. However, I m sure companies are working on next gen and next next gen which might increase their efficiency big time. Probably the only limiting factor is this limping BTC price. If it starts picking up, more money will be available for development as well.

I have to agree with you.

I see the S6 keeping the existing 28nm chip and architecture as the S5 but in an S4 size form factor with built-in PSU.  It would be on the market no more than 6 months [Just before 3rd generation comes out in September/October].

.51 watts per GH/s for 4,000 GH/s = 2,040 watts total.  Remember, the efficiency rating for the S5 @ .51 watts per GH/s included the one fan it has.  If this rig has four fans with built-in PSU, it may be close in wattage to what I just speculated (2,040 watts).  The PSU may go up to 2,200 watts to allow some room for over-clocking.

The present cost of the S5 [Without shipping] is .29565217 cents per GH/s.  With built-in PSU, the price per GH/s is definitely higher.  I'm going with the same price for the S5 at the moment.

If the S6 was 4000 GH/s x .29565217 cents per GH/s = $1,182.61 for the rig without including costs for built-in PSU.  I can see this rig easily going for $1,450.00 if we also factor in the built-in PSU.  Now we would have to add in shipping costs.  For one single unit the shipping could be $150.00 if it's the same form factor as the S4.  Now we are looking at $1,600.00 after shipping for a 4,000 GH/s rig.

Here is what the "speculated" S6 could mine with 4,000 GH/s at an estimated difficulty of 50,000,000,000:



Here is the electricity costs [At 10.5 cents per kWH] for this rig if it were 4,000 GH/s @ .51 watts per GH/s = 2,040 watts [With 4 fans]:



If your power costs were lower, it would certainly be better regarding ROI.  I only provided these as an example.  I still have fourteen (14) IBM 2880W server grade PSU's with breakout boards waiting to be used.  I'm more likely to buy rigs without PSU's at the moment because of this.  Others may not be in my situation.  I don't know.  If you do not have the PSU's sitting around, like myself, and you are looking for more hash rate in a form factor designed for server racks, this may be the rig for you.  I will more than likely continue buying more S5's while I wait on the 3rd generation because of these PSU's I have sitting on racks taking up space.  

[dmwardjr]

Was hopping S6 to be really compact and have really high hash like 10Gh/s for each. Compact is awesome!!

they should instead try to use better fan to reduce the noise, it should be about time already, or at least make it regulable with 4 pin on the circuit board

I really don't see a "chance" for lower fan noise until 3rd generation that will require less watts per chip; meaning less power, meaning less heat; meaning less necessity for high RPM fans to get the heat out.

[dmwardjr]

The more I think about it.  Now is a better time to get into bitcoin mining than it was a year ago.  One does not have to be concerned with as large of an increase in difficulty now as they did a year ago.  I can't imagine having to increase my hash rate more than 700 times what it was a year prior to mine the same amount of bitcoin that I mined a year prior.  The main thing holding most back at the moment is the price of bitcoin in relation to their power costs.  Those who move to an area with extremely low power costs stand a better chance of surviving.  Especially, when the blocks halve.

This may and may not be true. Yes, it s correct, we do not see those 40% monthly diff jumps anymore and I hope we ll not see this with current available hardware. However, I m sure companies are working on next gen and next next gen which might increase their efficiency big time. Probably the only limiting factor is this limping BTC price. If it starts picking up, more money will be available for development as well.

If the S7 includes .22nm chips, we could see .35 watts per GH.  If the S7 includes next generation 16nm or 14nm chips, we could see efficiency in the .21 to .14 watts per GH/s range.  It's really hard to say what chips Bitmain will use in the S7 to possibly be released in July.  This has me wondering why an S6 would be made with present chips used in the S5?  Are they going to do the same thing again like they did with the S4?  Meaning, come out with a rig like the S4 that's only on the market for 3 or 4 months then it's gone again because of new technology.  The S4 came out in October and only went through 2 batches.  We may see the same thing with the S6 if Bitmain comes out with an S6.

If we have .35 watts per GH/s in the S7, lets see if it is enough to create a "Farm War" which can affect difficulty:

.35 watts per GH/s

A 1,655 GH/s rig @ .35 watts per GH/s would total 579.25 watts.  I chose to keep the S7 at a similar total wattage as the S5.  It only makes sense to keep it there to avoid making consumers purchase new PSU's to power the new rig.  I've put the difficulty at 55,000,000,000 because that is where I believe it will be by the time July arrives.  






$112.80 in one month with difficulty at 55 Billion and BTC price @ $248.401 (BTC-e Exchange)
$  40.92 in one month with 10.5 cents per kWH for power costs.
$  71.88 in one month after power costs.

Present cost per GH/s without shipping for the S5 is $0.29437229 per GH/s.  If it were the same for the S7, the costs of the S7 would be $487.19 with a 22nm chip @ .35 watts per GH/s efficiency.  Again, this is only speculation to see if this would create a "Farm War."  ROI on this rig would be 6.7 months at present price of BTC with 10.5 cents per kWH power costs.  That ROI did not include shipping costs.  Not really much of a game changer to create a "Farm War" in my opinion.

However, if the next generation were 16nm or 14nm at [lets say] .21 watts per GH/s as a conservative estimate, this could be a game changer.  Lets see [This time I'm using a similar wattage to the S3 (347.55 watts) for the sake of the sheer size of the rig]:

An estimated 1,655 GH/s @ .21 watts per GH = 347.55 watts total for the rig.  The example below includes difficulty at 55 Billion and price of BTC @ $248.401








$112.80 in one month with difficulty at 55 Billion and BTC price @ $248.401 (BTC-e Exchange)
$  24.52 in one month with 10.5 cents per kWH for power costs.
$  88.28 in one month after power costs.

Present cost per GH/s without shipping for the S5 is $0.29437229 per GH/s.  If it were the same for the S7, the costs of the S7 would be $487.19 with a 16nm chip @ .21 watts per GH/s efficiency.  This would have ROI at 5.52 months if difficulty and price of BTC went up and/or down the same percentage during that time frame.  This ROI did not include shipping!  The ROI would be very close to 6 months with shipping.

This would definitely encourage more to invest into new hardware.  Especially, the big mining operations.

I think more people would be willing to buy a miner this efficient because they reason it will last a fairly good while after ROI.

[Rabinovitch]

What do you guys think about this my post in the similar speculation thread?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=920048.msg10985965#msg10985965