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Author Topic: Can bitcoins break $5,000 in 20 years?  (Read 11763 times)
dree12
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August 14, 2012, 01:50:30 PM
 #21

I just bought a 1.5Tbyte drive for $75..

think its big enuf for the future blockchain??

Assuming the block size limit isn't raised, it will take 57 years before the blockchain overflows that drive.
I doubt this assumption is accurate. With projected Bitcoin growth, we'd see closer to a drive that big every seven blocks in 57 years.

Calculations:

In 57 years Bitcoin will be the only form of currency on Earth. The population of Earth is projected to be nine billion. The average person performs 100 transactions a month. That is around 0.0231 transactions per person per block. In total, that is 208 million transactions per block. The average transaction size is around 1 KB. Therefore, there will be 208 GB on average per block in 57 years.

Yes, but as you clearly demonstrated, if you reject that assumption you have to make even more assumptions that have no reliable basis and you end up with mere speculation.
The assumptions I made were mostly lower bounds. A block is probably going to be larger than 1 TB on average in 57 years, once considering coin splitting, larger transaction sizes, and whatever other stuff gets stored onto the blockchain. Buying a 1.5 TB disk isn't going to store two blocks in the future blockchain.

Luckily, Moore's Law tells us we'll have hard disks 200 ZB (zettabytes) in size by then.

Emphasis added.  That's quite optimistic.  Most of my assets (other than my house) are currently in bitcoin or related businesses, but even I have a hard time accepting "only currency on earth" in only 57 years as a lower bound.
It's likely Bitcoin will also be the only currency on the Moon, and it's quite possible (although not certain) it will also be on Mars. Unless Bitcoin somehow fails, I think it's 99.9% certain that Bitcoin will control all but some niches of the world's currency usage in 57 years.
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August 14, 2012, 02:22:53 PM
 #22

I think this image will be closer. It's the WWW adoption rate in terms of users.

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August 14, 2012, 02:37:15 PM
 #23

I just bought a 1.5Tbyte drive for $75..

think its big enuf for the future blockchain??

Assuming the block size limit isn't raised, it will take 57 years before the blockchain overflows that drive.
I doubt this assumption is accurate. With projected Bitcoin growth, we'd see closer to a drive that big every seven blocks in 57 years.

Calculations:

In 57 years Bitcoin will be the only form of currency on Earth. The population of Earth is projected to be nine billion. The average person performs 100 transactions a month. That is around 0.0231 transactions per person per block. In total, that is 208 million transactions per block. The average transaction size is around 1 KB. Therefore, there will be 208 GB on average per block in 57 years.

Yes, but as you clearly demonstrated, if you reject that assumption you have to make even more assumptions that have no reliable basis and you end up with mere speculation.
The assumptions I made were mostly lower bounds. A block is probably going to be larger than 1 TB on average in 57 years, once considering coin splitting, larger transaction sizes, and whatever other stuff gets stored onto the blockchain. Buying a 1.5 TB disk isn't going to store two blocks in the future blockchain.

Luckily, Moore's Law tells us we'll have hard disks 200 ZB (zettabytes) in size by then.

Emphasis added.  That's quite optimistic.  Most of my assets (other than my house) are currently in bitcoin or related businesses, but even I have a hard time accepting "only currency on earth" in only 57 years as a lower bound.
It's likely Bitcoin will also be the only currency on the Moon, and it's quite possible (although not certain) it will also be on Mars. Unless Bitcoin somehow fails, I think it's 99.9% certain that Bitcoin will control all but some niches of the world's currency usage in 57 years.

You have it in reverse. Within 57 months bitcoin will be the only currency on mars. Earth will take longer to adopt it due to the lower robot/human ratio.
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August 14, 2012, 02:48:36 PM
 #24

I just bought a 1.5Tbyte drive for $75..

think its big enuf for the future blockchain??

Assuming the block size limit isn't raised, it will take 57 years before the blockchain overflows that drive.
I doubt this assumption is accurate. With projected Bitcoin growth, we'd see closer to a drive that big every seven blocks in 57 years.

Calculations:

In 57 years Bitcoin will be the only form of currency on Earth. The population of Earth is projected to be nine billion. The average person performs 100 transactions a month. That is around 0.0231 transactions per person per block. In total, that is 208 million transactions per block. The average transaction size is around 1 KB. Therefore, there will be 208 GB on average per block in 57 years.

Yes, but as you clearly demonstrated, if you reject that assumption you have to make even more assumptions that have no reliable basis and you end up with mere speculation.
The assumptions I made were mostly lower bounds. A block is probably going to be larger than 1 TB on average in 57 years, once considering coin splitting, larger transaction sizes, and whatever other stuff gets stored onto the blockchain. Buying a 1.5 TB disk isn't going to store two blocks in the future blockchain.

Luckily, Moore's Law tells us we'll have hard disks 200 ZB (zettabytes) in size by then.

Emphasis added.  That's quite optimistic.  Most of my assets (other than my house) are currently in bitcoin or related businesses, but even I have a hard time accepting "only currency on earth" in only 57 years as a lower bound.
It's likely Bitcoin will also be the only currency on the Moon, and it's quite possible (although not certain) it will also be on Mars. Unless Bitcoin somehow fails, I think it's 99.9% certain that Bitcoin will control all but some niches of the world's currency usage in 57 years.

You have it in reverse. Within 57 months bitcoin will be the only currency on mars. Earth will take longer to adopt it due to the lower robot/human ratio.
The latency between Earth and Mars would make transactions take forever to confirm on Mars, assuming Earth is where the mining is located. If a solution to this isn't found, then it's entirely possible that Marscoin would develop on Mars instead of Bitcoin.

The latency between the Moon and Earth is small enough that a few centralized Earth-Moon transit nodes is sufficient for rapid communication. Mining is even possible on the Moon if only one communication is made.
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August 14, 2012, 03:59:39 PM
 #25

Everyone on Mars would just use MarsBankAlpha and MarsBankBeta who would occasionally send a Bitcoin transaction to the Earth blockchain to rebalance. The Earth banks will do the same thing.

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August 14, 2012, 07:38:47 PM
 #26

It might break $5,000 in 20 years, but the scalability issues must be tackled first.

Also, USD might tank enough that $5000 isn't exactly a lot of money in 20 years.

But the thing is, as of now bitcoins are only useful as a very risky (but potentially high-reward) speculative investment and a payment method for small-scale illegal markets.

In 20 years that might be different. Actually, even the end-user level drug markets are big enough worldwide to support a much higher price than BTC's value today. Of course in F2F transactions cash is much easier, but mail order with an escrow service is something that wasn't really available to drug users before Bitcoin.
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August 14, 2012, 07:50:33 PM
 #27

Reading this thread one might be tempted to believe that the future can be predicted, which it cannot.

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August 14, 2012, 07:53:46 PM
 #28

Reading this thread one might be tempted to believe that the future can be predicted, which it cannot.
Of course the future can be predicted. The sun will rise tomorrow where I live. There will be a solar eclipse on April 8, 2024.

Unfortunately, predictions for Bitcoin's future are less obvious and certain.
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August 14, 2012, 08:01:17 PM
 #29

Reading this thread one might be tempted to believe that the future can be predicted, which it cannot.
Of course the future can be predicted. The sun will rise tomorrow where I live. There will be a solar eclipse on April 8, 2024.

Unfortunately, predictions for Bitcoin's future are less obvious and certain.
Holly crap, he's right. dree12 can control the cosmos!!   Cheesy
Is there a wiki page showing future prices?  Embarrassed

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August 15, 2012, 01:50:54 AM
 #30

I dont' think Moore's law works on Hard drives, but it may be true for Solid State Drives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder

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August 15, 2012, 03:03:33 AM
 #31

I dont' think Moore's law works on Hard drives, but it may be true for Solid State Drives.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Kryder


No, but Kryder's Law shows Moore's law is a reasonable lower bound.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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August 16, 2012, 07:54:45 PM
 #32

didnt they just recently add a marker to the blockchain at 158333 or something like that so it DL's faster.   i've noticed the blockchain downloads a lot faster than it used to from a fresh install of the client.   plus years from now HDD and bandwidth will be better than what it is now....

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August 17, 2012, 02:01:53 AM
 #33

This thread is dumb. In 20 years the dollar will likely be inflated into oblivion that we are no longer using the current dollars we use today.

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August 17, 2012, 03:06:22 AM
 #34

One thing we can safely assume is that the dollar won't be worth $5000 in 20 years.

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August 17, 2012, 05:09:16 AM
 #35

Impossible to know. All life could be extinct on this planet in 20 years.
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August 17, 2012, 05:16:27 AM
 #36

Impossible to know. All life could be extinct on this planet in 20 years.

I'll 1 up you.

The answer is yes. Bitcoins CAN break $5,000 in 20 years.
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August 17, 2012, 02:28:30 PM
 #37

Well if it keeps doubling every year we will get there in 8-9 years.

However for this to happen the big problems have to be solved:
1. Paying with and receiving BTC needs to be dirt cheap and simple.
2. The BTC network has to be able to take the growth without fees rising much.

Multiple bitcoin card projects are in the works so #1 will likely be covered in a year or sooner with costs falling after that and options multiplying.

#2 is harder but also less critical. We probably have ~4 years before it will impair growth. Swarm algorithms should be under development or developed if we get that far by then.

Keep in mind that BTC can grow in many ways:
 - Amount of people.
 - What they use it for.
 - The amounts they use it for.

This means the fast growth phase could be sustained for much longer than that of say Facebook.

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August 22, 2012, 05:36:02 AM
 #38

the only thing that can prevent BTC from getting to 5000 is the competition o new and improved blockchains
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August 27, 2012, 12:06:24 AM
 #39

Yes, but $5000 will only be enough to buy a burger and a beer.
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August 27, 2012, 02:47:03 AM
 #40

Yes, but $5000 will only be enough to buy a burger and a beer.

Nice.  Ok how about can bitcoin break 1 oz of gold in 20 years?
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