A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case

[sunnankar]

Interesting point.  Is anyone attempting to track aggregate demand across all trading options, to the extent that that can be done?

Perhaps there are attempts being done by buyers to specifically hinder or impede this tracking of demand from happening through the use of non-disclosure agreements, use of physical cash, gold, silver, etc.

[TraderTimm]

Never was much of a fan of old 'backfit' Elliott Wave. Seemed about as useful as the 'ZigZag' indicator a lot of charting programs use - they have a warning not to use it when programming trading strategies, as it is a backward-looking indicator

Anyway, I say stick with the trendlines that have been established and scale/stop-out if you get closes below it. Everyone has their favorite method, no doubt.

[S3052]

Thanks, now I get it.  I said 'bullish' but meant 'bearish' which you answered anyway!

Here's a Bull vs Bear visual to go with the explanation given by BrightAnarchist.

Nice picture.

Nice comparison.

The count for the bear case is rather unlikely since the time span for a wave 2 correction would be too long versus the wave 1 advance. It is not impossible but does not look likely.

Thanks guys!

@S3052, Agreed! It is very unlikely.
However, it should be noted that, if we were to have a deep correction, and drop below the wave-(1) ($7.22 high noted in the "bullish" representation), the current situation would be the topping of a wave-(B), and we would be looking at heading toward a new low. This is because, from an EW standpoint, once we passed the January high, and a wave-4 cannot overlap a wave-1 there is now nothing stopping us from seeing a new lower low.
(I know you know this, I'm just clarifying for the EW Newbs.) 

+1 this is correct. BTCUSD should not move below 7.22 in the near future.

[thebaron]

I think we're getting to the point where demand for it as an exchange medium (i.e for Silk Road transactions) is beginning to exceed available supply, so I'm in the bullish state of mind. Especially when you factor in all the speculators who are holding onto them when the purchased them at a bargain earlier this year hoping to break that $30 price point again. And Pirate having to repay investors in BTC when he initially converted their funds into something more liquid...

[adamstgBit]

...I think we're getting to the point where demand for it as an exchange medium (i.e for Silk Road transactions) is beginning to exceed available supply...

again i hate being a bear, makes me feel like and asshole...

but, no way can this true.

[thebaron]

but, no way can this true.

If people treated them as a deflationary currency in its own right as buyers, I think you'd be right. But most listings on SR are tied to a fixed local fiat currency amount.

You've got people buying BTC to buy anonymous drugs, a lot of BTC being held in escrow, and then BTC being sold by the sellers to exchange for their local fiat.

My point is, there are only so much up for grabs at a certain price point. The price is going up because people are holding onto them, period.

Anyway, if I could predict the future I would have bought BTC at 8 cents each when I had the chance.

[ruski]

The rise has giving new hope for 100$ bitcoins, but before that can happen new money has to come into the market, and for new money to come into the market opportunity must be presented. 7.22 will the opportunity of a life time.

That's probably the first thing you've said that I have to agree with. But I think your bear would be surprised the hidden interest a tiny perceived buying opportunity can bring. If you've ever traded real stocks, take a look - this stock was my personal plaything back then and still has to be my favourite, ever. You'd be stunned how many of the upward moves were prompted by a 2-5 cent dip.



That said I just don't see any major buying opportunities presenting themselves in the near future. Slow as she goes.

[adamstgBit]

but, no way can this true.

If people treated them as a deflationary currency in its own right as buyers, I think you'd be right. But most listings on SR are tied to a fixed local fiat currency amount.

You've got people buying BTC to buy anonymous drugs, a lot of BTC being held in escrow, and then BTC being sold by the sellers to exchange for their local fiat.

My point is, there are only so much up for grabs at a certain price point. The price is going up because people are holding onto them, period.

Anyway, if I could predict the future I would have bought BTC at 8 cents each when I had the chance.

A SR user buys 20 bitcoins and then buys some weed with it right away, the seller of that weed then sells the 20 bitcoin right away. all this dose is support the current price.

that's the only effect the bitcoin economy will EVER have on bitcoin price, it will support the price, at wtv the price.

if the bitcoin economy sells 1 billion dollars worth of stuff everyday, bitcoins will shoot up high enough so the bitcoin economy isn't messing with the supply needed for speculation.

speculation will ALWAYS eat up 90% of the supply.

[oakpacific]

If people start panic selling even at $12, that means the demand still mostly comes from manipulators and basement kids who invested their lunch money, rather than serious investors, this is not going to be good for bitcoin.

[ruski]

basement kids who invested their lunch money

I think we're a bit past that

[phatsphere]

• Powerful entity (e.g. a government, the UN, etc) declares explicit war against Bitcoin ...Weak hands would assume the worst and sell, true believers would hold on.  Price could fall drastically to some very low (but nonzero) amount.

If this is as "successful" as the "war on drugs", the price will not fall. What happens is, that the volume is much smaller.

[ruski]

Wow, bears trying to spam off and hide the massive multiple buys up to $12.17ish just now? Waiting for that wall to disappear, any hour now...

[aq]

Wow, bears trying to spam off and hide the massive multiple buys up to $12.17ish just now? Waiting for that wall to disappear, any hour now...

Now what else can they do? They have sold it all, and have no chance to buy back. So they are spamming like a boss, in the hope that someone will lose his sanity and sells.

[Beta-coiner1]

Don't know,but early this morning I saw Mtgox top out at $12:38.I think it will break $13 within the next week 1/2.

[ElectricMucus]

What else can they do? They gone all in and sometimes even more than that. They bought too high and have no chance to sell back. So they are spamming like a boss in the hope someone else looses his sanity and buys in.

FTFY

Seriously the forum has been so much full of Bullish posts that this lone bear thread is almost refreshing.

[aq]

What else can they do? They gone all in and sometimes even more than that. They bought too high and have no chance to sell back. So they are spamming like a boss in the hope someone else looses his sanity and buys in.

FTFY

Seriously the forum has been so much full of Bullish posts that this lone bear thread is almost refreshing.

And what do you think will happen with that lone bear in the middle of a very huge running bull herd? Exactly, he will be trampled to death. Makes me feel sad, because as we know, in reality this is most probably not a lone bear, but some bull in a bear costume.

[ElectricMucus]

very graphic, but to be honest this doesn't make me wanna buy more bitcoins.

[aq]

very graphic, but to be honest this doesn't make me wanna by more bitcoins.

Actually, judging from your postings you are a real bear. And I am sure that is why you have never bought any bitcoins. They can always only go down, according to you.

[ElectricMucus]

very graphic, but to be honest this doesn't make me wanna by more bitcoins.

Actually, judging from your postings you are a real bear. And I am sure that is why you have never bought any bitcoins. They can always only go down, according to you.

Actually I bought around 300 USD worth, but not recently. I am midterm bear and a longterm bull. I probably will be around longer than most people here...

[Piper67]

very graphic, but to be honest this doesn't make me wanna buy more bitcoins.

Good, I don't want you to buy bitcoins... the more you buy, the more expensive they become for me