A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case

[ElectricMucus]

very graphic, but to be honest this doesn't make me wanna buy more bitcoins.

Good, I don't want you to buy bitcoins... the more you buy, the more expensive they become for me  

Cool my bids will be there once you panic sell them.

Since it has to be graphic:

[TraderTimm]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

[FreeMoney]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

I'd say the "Top at 12.16" theory is roasted at around 12.17.

[ElectricMucus]

OP said something about fib resistance levels.

So that would be $32*(1-1/phi) = 12.2229124

[adamstgBit]

OP said something about fib resistance levels.

So that would be $32*(1-1/phi) = 12.2229124

notice the key word...

12ish is the "fib resistance"

are we seeing any resistance right now?

[ElectricMucus]

well the Fibonacci ratios converge to the golden ratio so what's the point?

tbh I never understood the obsession with it, it's numerology imo.
Well we'll find out pretty soon if we move beyond it.

I guess it's something like

32*(1-5/8)=12 to 32*(1-8/13)=12.3076923
or something....

numerologists 

[waveaddict]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

In theory, there is no actual price that invalidates the B-wave possibility. In practice, a B-wave typically retraces to 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding A-wave in a zigzag (5-3-5) corrective as opposed to around 100% in a flat (3-3-5) corrective. Now, because the move off $2 was composed of 5 waves higher within a basic channel, the flat option was invalidated leaving the zigzag. In short, if the price heads above $13.46-$17 (38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement off a $32-$2 A-wave), the price is likely heading above $32 in a 3rd wave. Until then, the B-wave is just as likely as a 3rd.

Also keep in mind that, if this is a B/X-wave moving higher, it doesn't necessarily need to head below $2 in a vicious C-wave after it completes before heading much higher. In a very large triangle or combinational corrective, the price could head sideways between $32 and $2 for years before finally taking off.

[kano]

    Last price: $12.35999
    High: $12.40493
    Low: $11.92500
    Volume: 45391 BTC
    Weighted Avg: $12.18958
    Mt. Gox

Well it certainly went above $12.16 already ...

Though I guess the reality of it was that you said it was going to be $12.16 ... unless it went over $12.16 ... then just say that the new high doesn't invalidate the theory ...

[cbeast]

well the Fibonacci ratios converge to the golden ratio so what's the point?

tbh I never understood the obsession with it, it's numerology imo.
Well we'll find out pretty soon if we move beyond it.

I guess it's something like

32*(1-5/8)=12 to 32*(1-8/13)=12.3076923
or something....

numerologists 

I prefer Canadianology. You double it and add thirty, eh.

[ruski]

A potential top @ $12.16

Last Trade  12.44

[BrightAnarchist]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

In theory, there is no actual price that invalidates the B-wave possibility. In practice, a B-wave typically retraces to 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding A-wave in a zigzag (5-3-5) corrective as opposed to around 100% in a flat (3-3-5) corrective. Now, because the move off $2 was composed of 5 waves higher within a basic channel, the flat option was invalidated leaving the zigzag. In short, if the price heads above $13.46-$17 (38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement off a $32-$2 A-wave), the price is likely heading above $32 in a 3rd wave. Until then, the B-wave is just as likely as a 3rd.

Also keep in mind that, if this is a B/X-wave moving higher, it doesn't necessarily need to head below $2 in a vicious C-wave after it completes before heading much higher. In a very large triangle or combinational corrective, the price could head sideways between $32 and $2 for years before finally taking off.

This.

Thanks for posting something intelligent, in contrast to all the snickering posters who don't understand enough wave theory to comprehend the nature of the idea, or the specific fact that I said it's a potential wave count with some real merit to it and not even remotely meant to be an exact forecast, especially in the short-term.

Again:

Since then we've done an even smaller a-b-c to form the B wave, which should end eventually with a nice lower high, potentially at around $12 (but there's a wide range here, I'm just making a guess based on volume).

I've lost some respect for some of the other commenters.

[Joe200]

August 9th was a failed push down (inverted cross doji on high volume). Since then, the price has been drifting up on relatively low volume. Unless we see volume pick up, this could be similar to a dead cat bounce. Watching cautiously.

[RodeoX]

How come when I look at those charts I just see a bunch of made up lines having no connection to future prices. Almost all the *real money I have made on wall street has been by betting against the "experts". It is a well known fact among traders that market gurus almost never do better than random chance.
In the time I have been here I have seen countless such threads and they never pan out.   

[cheat_2_win]

How come when I look at those charts I just see a bunch of made up lines having no connection to future prices. Almost all the *real money I have made on wall street has been by betting against the "experts". It is a well known fact among traders that market gurus almost never do better than random chance.
In the time I have been here I have seen countless such threads and they never pan out.   

+1

[Joe200]

I want the price to drop a lot so I can buy more. MOER!

Is anyone here actually buying? I am getting dizzy at these heights.

[Elwar]

According to these charts the price will be going higher:

___/

[Beta-coiner1]

  I think the pricing will go higher simply because of the economic collapse in Europe followed by the difficulty increase.Unless some 'tard with a lot of BTC decides to just sell a huge amount to affect the current rally.

[TraderTimm]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

In theory, there is no actual price that invalidates the B-wave possibility. In practice, a B-wave typically retraces to 38.2%-50% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding A-wave in a zigzag (5-3-5) corrective as opposed to around 100% in a flat (3-3-5) corrective. Now, because the move off $2 was composed of 5 waves higher within a basic channel, the flat option was invalidated leaving the zigzag. In short, if the price heads above $13.46-$17 (38.2% - 50% Fibonacci retracement off a $32-$2 A-wave), the price is likely heading above $32 in a 3rd wave. Until then, the B-wave is just as likely as a 3rd.

Also keep in mind that, if this is a B/X-wave moving higher, it doesn't necessarily need to head below $2 in a vicious C-wave after it completes before heading much higher. In a very large triangle or combinational corrective, the price could head sideways between $32 and $2 for years before finally taking off.

This.

Thanks for posting something intelligent, in contrast to all the snickering posters who don't understand enough wave theory to comprehend the nature of the idea, or the specific fact that I said it's a potential wave count with some real merit to it and not even remotely meant to be an exact forecast, especially in the short-term.

Again:

Since then we've done an even smaller a-b-c to form the B wave, which should end eventually with a nice lower high, potentially at around $12 (but there's a wide range here, I'm just making a guess based on volume).

I've lost some respect for some of the other commenters.

I understand that wave theory presents these possible outcomes, just was wondering if there was any money-management behind the trades. If the original poster has stops or limits that would take them out, I'd be interested to know what price that would be.

Thanks.

[Tomatocage]

Quick question - for the original poster - at what price is your theory invalidated? (Mental or literal stop-loss?)

13.16?

14.16?

Just curious.

I'd say the "Top at 12.16" theory is roasted at around 12.17.

ROFL

[BrightAnarchist]

I understand that wave theory presents these possible outcomes, just was wondering if there was any money-management behind the trades.

What trades?

If the original poster has stops or limits that would take them out, I'd be interested to know what price that would be.

I am long BTC without a stop and believe the B wave potential is still on the table and may present a buying opportunity in the future. I've said this several times already.