A potential top @ $12.16: the bearish case

[adamstgBit]

what ever happened to wave addict?

is he still sending out e-mail?

[waveaddict]

what ever happened to wave addict?

is he still sending out e-mail?

yep, I just keep forgetting to post the update here.

[notme]

what ever happened to wave addict?

is he still sending out e-mail?

yep, I just keep forgetting to post the update here.

Seem's like a good time to announce a half-price special...  You'd still be getting more fiat for your service than when you started.

[odolvlobo]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

[kano]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

Shh ... people might realise that anything with any sort of volatility goes up and down ... and not like a predetermined function ...

[TraderTimm]

I understand that wave theory presents these possible outcomes, just was wondering if there was any money-management behind the trades.

What trades?

If the original poster has stops or limits that would take them out, I'd be interested to know what price that would be.

I am long BTC without a stop and believe the B wave potential is still on the table and may present a buying opportunity in the future. I've said this several times already.

Sorry, thought the rationale for analyzing the market was for executing trades. If that isn't the case - I didn't mean to allege any trading activity.

Ah - so you are in the market. Fair enough. Just was curious if you had any limits or stops for money management. You've answered my question. Good luck.

[Tomatocage]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

I lol'd

[mobodick]

well the Fibonacci ratios converge to the golden ratio so what's the point?

tbh I never understood the obsession with it, it's numerology imo.

Well, i have to disagree, and with me a big part of natural life.
Fibonacci sequence relations are very handy for space-packing, for instance.
The ratio has fractal like as it can be described as a recursive function.
Random webpage proving my point for me: http://www.maths.surrey.ac.uk/hosted-sites/R.Knott/Fibonacci/fibnat.html
I would agree on your numerology argument if it wasn't about the ratio.

[kano]

Was the drop from $15.40 down to $10.60 part of that prediction ...

[BrightAnarchist]

Was the drop from $15.40 down to $10.60 part of that prediction ...

Correct. The retracement went a bit higher than I expected, but I think being within 3 days of a major top is pretty damn close . $12.16 would be the first fib resistance point about 38% whereas $15.40 is about 50% which is the next major resistance point.

I think it's likely that Wave B is over and Wave C of II has begun to the downside. As I said in the OP, I'm still holding long with the coins that I already have, but I'm not buying any more coins until they reach around the $2 level again (unless my outlook changes).

Today's action certainly looks more like a major reversal rather than YANC (yet another normal correction):

[cbeast]

Somewhere between 10.60 and 15.40 it will be 12.16 and the week is not over yet. Hell, I'm waiting for the "I sold everything at 15.40 and bought back at 10.60" threads. Hindsight analysis to verify vague predictions does not science make. TV evangelist prophets get a lot of donations for that kind of scam. Nowhere have I seen a stable 12.16 or anything close in a long time. It will take a prediction of stability at a price before I can believe any type of prediction methodology. But in case you are wondering, 12 is about the break even cost of the average small time bitcoin miner using pools, so that is a good reason to believe 12 can be stable.

[ruski]

I think being within 3 days of a major top is pretty damn close

No. No it's not. There's a 30% difference in price between three days ago and the crash. Don't start believing your own hype and don't quit your day job.

[waveaddict]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

[ruski]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

On the upside, if the price more or less holds, it solidifies the fact that the gains prior to that massive jump were solid, not speculative, and the growth we were seeing before should continue

[blazing]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

On the upside, if the price more or less holds, it solidifies the fact that the gains prior to that massive jump were solid, not speculative, and the growth we were seeing before should continue

Exactly! What a good opportunity to buy now.

[waveaddict]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliot Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

On the upside, if the price more or less holds, it solidifies the fact that the gains prior to that massive jump were solid, not speculative, and the growth we were seeing before should continue

The daily and weekly underlying indicators say otherwise

[proudhon]

Was the drop from $15.40 down to $10.60 part of that prediction ...

Correct. The retracement went a bit higher than I expected, but I think being within 3 days of a major top is pretty damn close . $12.16 would be the first fib resistance point about 38% whereas $15.40 is about 50% which is the next major resistance point.

I think it's likely that Wave B is over and Wave C of II has begun to the downside. As I said in the OP, I'm still holding long with the coins that I already have, but I'm not buying any more coins until they reach around the $2 level again (unless my outlook changes).

Today's action certainly looks more like a major reversal rather than YANC (yet another normal correction):

Cypher, can I put my dancing bear back up now?

[ruski]

Are y'all crazy? It jumped $2.40 in one day. Even the biggest bulls could see that was ending badly. And the "correction" has taken us roughly 50c below the start of that spike. If there were any bearish sentiment about the broader rally, stop-losses and fear would have pushed the price a lot lower. Especially given how light the buy side was at that point.

I'm not saying that we've seen the lowest point yet, especially being the weekend, but if you think this is likely to last, I think you're in for a big surprise. A genuine rally has just dipped, after weeks of non-stop growth. This is where the fun really starts.

[odolvlobo]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliott Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

I actually know quite a lot about the subject. The "wave-4 tricky, blah, blah, blah, surpassing the upper channel trend-line, blah, blah, blah" you wrote is a bunch of nonsense derived from fairy tales dressed up to look like science. It is nonsense because it is just a bunch of pseudo-science built from Elliott's numerical hallucinations. It has as much validity as scientology and homeopathy, and of course, astrology. If someone could come up with a rational theoretical basis, or even some conclusive empirical evidence, then the subject might be transformed from mathematical allegories to a real science. But they can't. So, it remains stuck in the realm of confirmation bias, with the same stature as the science of street light interference (aka SLI to the believers).

As for the $12 mark, there was no top at $12, as your precious fairy tales predicted. The rise above $12 was not obviously unsustainable because the price was sustained well above your magic Fibonacci number. The fact that the price fell a few days after your misprediction was just a coincidence. You can not and should not try to take credit for anything here. Anyway, the fall in prices was caused an unpredictable event, not by crowd psychology or mood swings, which Elliot Wave Principle is purported (without substantiation) to be based on.

Oh btw, your $12.16 top looks more like a support level than a resistance level. Oh, but of course, resistance levels become support levels. What a lucky break -- your Xanadu remains intact. Isn't 20-20 hindsight precious?

/vomit

[notme]

Well, now that the price has gone past your $12.16 top, what do your astrological technical analysis charts say?

Elliott Wave Theory is a bunch of useless nonsense. Fibonacci numbers are just numbers. They aren't magic and they are not connected to trading or bitcoins in any way. There I said it.

You might actually want to take the time and learn about something before you completely discredit/insult it. The rise above $12 was obviously unsustainable and the vicious consequences were just as predictable: http://imageshack.us/f/839/389b.png/ (taken from past subscription chart 389)

the wave-4 ended up being a larger running flat which was tricky, but the aftermath of the price surpassing the upper channel trend-line was the same -- an extended 5th (a classic commodity/currency bubble wave) before a plunge.

I actually know quite a lot about the subject. The "wave-4 tricky, blah, blah, blah, surpassing the upper channel trend-line, blah, blah, blah" you wrote is a bunch of nonsense derived from fairy tales dressed up to look like science. It is nonsense because it is just a bunch of pseudo-science built from Elliott's numerical hallucinations. It has as much validity as scientology and homeopathy, and of course, astrology. If someone could come up with a rational theoretical basis, or even some conclusive empirical evidence, then the subject might be transformed from mathematical allegories to a real science. But they can't. So, it remains stuck in the realm of confirmation bias, with the same stature as the science of street light interference (aka SLI to the believers).

As for the $12 mark, there was no top at $12, as your precious fairy tales predicted. The rise above $12 was not obviously unsustainable because the price was sustained well above your magic Fibonacci number. The fact that the price fell a few days after your misprediction was just a coincidence. You can not and should not try to take credit for anything here. Anyway, the fall in prices was caused an unpredictable event, not by crowd psychology or mood swings, which Elliot Wave Principle is purported (without substantiation) to be based on.

Oh btw, your $12.16 top looks more like a support level than a resistance level. Oh, but of course, resistance levels become support levels. What a lucky break -- your Xanadu remains intact. Isn't 20-20 hindsight precious?

/vomit

It's rooted in psychology and the chart he showed was sent out on August 7th.  Somehow he made a pretty accurate description of what happened two weeks later.

If a day and a half is "sustained" in your world, I can understand the confusion.