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Author Topic: I cant imagine a plausible chain of events preventing btc from reaching the moon  (Read 2886 times)
sporket
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April 03, 2015, 11:37:54 AM
 #21

...apart from growth of an altcoin instead (couldnt fit this in the title). But even that seems increasingly unlikely these days, more and more we hear of new coins being built on top of the bitcoin blockchain instead of their own thing.

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

Bitcoin loses another3/4 of its value while becoming a vehicle for more hilarious crimes & getting banned in more countries.
Too easy, give me a harder one.
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April 03, 2015, 11:40:06 AM
 #22



re western union.
have you ever seen western union working in third world countries?. there actually provide something - they are not just middlemen taking a free margin. peer to peer is a catchy concept but it works fine if you have bitcoin and the other person wants bitcoin. once one or other turns it into fiat for example fees come into play. also bitcoin has a long way to go to get reputable exchanges etc. its time enough for the wider market place to adapt to its presence and lessen its impact.
re store of wealth  - the price of bitcoin is about US$250. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $250 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to double figures

I know they are not just middlemen but they are middlemen who are unnecessary in the age of bitcoin.  Even if you want fiat to bitcoin and back to fiat transactions which would require a bitcoin middleman they are still way cheaper than WU.  But a point will come where people will be happy to hold on to bitcoin rather than change it back to fiat and no middleman is necessary.

re store of wealth  - the price of gold is about US$1100. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $1100 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to triple figures
Paashaas
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April 03, 2015, 12:10:47 PM
 #23

It's really too simple. Nothing happens then people lose interest.

Think about this pic.

Anotherthing
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April 03, 2015, 12:13:38 PM
 #24

^...and, after you stop fantasizing, think about reality Undecided

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pleaseexplain
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April 03, 2015, 12:54:22 PM
 #25



re western union.
have you ever seen western union working in third world countries?. there actually provide something - they are not just middlemen taking a free margin. peer to peer is a catchy concept but it works fine if you have bitcoin and the other person wants bitcoin. once one or other turns it into fiat for example fees come into play. also bitcoin has a long way to go to get reputable exchanges etc. its time enough for the wider market place to adapt to its presence and lessen its impact.
re store of wealth  - the price of bitcoin is about US$250. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $250 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to double figures

I know they are not just middlemen but they are middlemen who are unnecessary in the age of bitcoin.  Even if you want fiat to bitcoin and back to fiat transactions which would require a bitcoin middleman they are still way cheaper than WU.  But a point will come where people will be happy to hold on to bitcoin rather than change it back to fiat and no middleman is necessary.

re store of wealth  - the price of gold is about US$1100. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $1100 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to triple figures


unless you are a miner to get bitcoin you need to buy it - that means a middleman.
say one year ago you thought i will buy 1 bitcoin and hold it to send to someone who wants bitcoin at a later date . You would have paid us$448 for that 1 bitcoin.
today your friend would like to buy something that people who pay with fiat are having to spend us $448. You send your friend your one bitcoin in a fast seamless transaction. But the key question is  - will the seller of the goods give it to him for 1 bitcoin? the answer is no as the seller of the goods would only have (if it took the one bitcoin) the buying power of us$250.

gold has dropped 7% over the year but has risen 6% over the last 5 years.

I can live with a store of value that has this sort of movement -  ie its purchasing power is not significantly different in the short term (1-3 years).

i see bitcoin at least in the short term as being the reverse  - it hit $1200 as a result of willybot and is still going down as more and more that chased it up have to take the hit ie cannot afford to hold . I am just not confident that i should buy it and hold it at 1200 or 448 or 250 or sub 100 where it will be in 12 months. 

happy to buy it and send it to someone who sells if for fiat within 24 hours. but that does not help the stored value of bitcoin. as i see it the only holders of bitcoin are the giant bitcoin owners who got them mining for a few cents each.

 
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April 03, 2015, 01:10:17 PM
 #26



re western union.
have you ever seen western union working in third world countries?. there actually provide something - they are not just middlemen taking a free margin. peer to peer is a catchy concept but it works fine if you have bitcoin and the other person wants bitcoin. once one or other turns it into fiat for example fees come into play. also bitcoin has a long way to go to get reputable exchanges etc. its time enough for the wider market place to adapt to its presence and lessen its impact.
re store of wealth  - the price of bitcoin is about US$250. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $250 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to double figures

I know they are not just middlemen but they are middlemen who are unnecessary in the age of bitcoin.  Even if you want fiat to bitcoin and back to fiat transactions which would require a bitcoin middleman they are still way cheaper than WU.  But a point will come where people will be happy to hold on to bitcoin rather than change it back to fiat and no middleman is necessary.

re store of wealth  - the price of gold is about US$1100. Can you tell me what share of that you believe to be is its store of wealth? I think its nil or close to it and the whole $1100 is its speculated transactional value which I see declining to triple figures


unless you are a miner to get bitcoin you need to buy it - that means a middleman.
say one year ago you thought i will buy 1 bitcoin and hold it to send to someone who wants bitcoin at a later date . You would have paid us$448 for that 1 bitcoin.
today your friend would like to buy something that people who pay with fiat are having to spend us $448. You send your friend your one bitcoin in a fast seamless transaction. But the key question is  - will the seller of the goods give it to him for 1 bitcoin? the answer is no as the seller of the goods would only have (if it took the one bitcoin) the buying power of us$250.

gold has dropped 7% over the year but has risen 6% over the last 5 years.

I can live with a store of value that has this sort of movement -  ie its purchasing power is not significantly different in the short term (1-3 years).

i see bitcoin at least in the short term as being the reverse  - it hit $1200 as a result of willybot and is still going down as more and more that chased it up have to take the hit ie cannot afford to hold . I am just not confident that i should buy it and hold it at 1200 or 448 or 250 or sub 100 where it will be in 12 months. 

happy to buy it and send it to someone who sells if for fiat within 24 hours. but that does not help the stored value of bitcoin. as i see it the only holders of bitcoin are the giant bitcoin owners who got them mining for a few cents each.

We are early in bitcoin distribution and use amongst the general public. Pre early really. Volatility is likely to continue for years going forward.

Bitcoin is sound money in the sense that the supply is limited. If it succeeds as an alternate internet currency and or payment medium then the price will be many multiples of where it is now. If it is adopted by Wall St as a speculative store of value then the price will rise many multiples from here. It may take the latter of those two options to occur, providing price stability before bitcoin truly is adopted by the common man. This could take several years from now.

Only buy bitcoin with money you can afford to lose.



Paashaas
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April 03, 2015, 01:56:16 PM
 #27

^...and, after you stop fantasizing, think about reality Undecided



a newbie trying to counter me with a short-term graph.....

Zoom out dude!
sporket
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April 03, 2015, 02:35:30 PM
 #28

^...and, after you stop fantasizing, think about reality Undecided



a newbie trying to counter me with a short-term graph.....

Zoom out dude!

Seems on the money to me.  A year and a half, ~1/3 of the time since the 10,000 BTC pizza.  N00b. Undecided
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April 03, 2015, 02:56:44 PM
 #29

^...and, after you stop fantasizing, think about reality Undecided



a newbie trying to counter me with a short-term graph.....

Zoom out dude!

Seems on the money to me.  A year and a half, ~1/3 of the time since the 10,000 BTC pizza.  N00b. Undecided

The only thing you can do on this forum is trolling, welcome on my ignore list.
Natalia_AnatolioPAMM
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April 03, 2015, 03:07:00 PM
 #30

A greater number of people who are involved now can't find a use for it in their lives, or don't want to use it. Pretty simple really.

i think no one who bought btc at some points ever doubts how to use it
gentlemand
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April 03, 2015, 03:21:20 PM
 #31

A greater number of people who are involved now can't find a use for it in their lives, or don't want to use it. Pretty simple really.

i think no one who bought btc at some points ever doubts how to use it

I meant that if more people don't find a use for it, it's going to die off. The average first world person doesn't have a compelling reason to make use of bitcoin as it is now unless they're after some drugs and there's the occasional deep discount with retailers. Maybe that'll change in the future. You have to be committed to be using it as it stands today.
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April 03, 2015, 03:23:04 PM
 #32

^...and, after you stop fantasizing, think about reality Undecided

http://s15.postimg.org/eyb4ps77f/Capture.jpg

a newbie trying to counter me with a short-term graph.....

Zoom out dude!

Seems on the money to me.  A year and a half, ~1/3 of the time since the 10,000 BTC pizza.  N00b. Undecided

The only thing you can do on this forum is trolling, welcome on my ignore list.

http://s8.postimg.org/56ae6o0qt/worstthing.jpg
ensurance982
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April 03, 2015, 07:33:47 PM
 #33

...apart from growth of an altcoin instead (couldnt fit this in the title). But even that seems increasingly unlikely these days, more and more we hear of new coins being built on top of the bitcoin blockchain instead of their own thing.

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

Maybe being banned by every major economy, a flaw in the mathematical one-way hashing functions securing Bitcoin, other bugs that haven't been addressed or even hypothesised. Apart from that I can only see some sort of altcoin or some fork of Bitcoin being a "real" threat...

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April 05, 2015, 03:33:59 AM
 #34

Even though very much unlikely what could happen is the complete meltdown of the network due to hacks or attacks. But I see more damaging is the loss reputation for example exchangers getting closed down causing people to lose trust in bitcoin or either some pyramid schemes finally collapse. Even though it has nothing to do with bitcoin's fault, people tend to misinterpret or see things different. 

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April 05, 2015, 07:59:32 AM
 #35

directory.io becoming searchable would end it.

It's not hard to think of things.  I still love bitcoin.
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April 05, 2015, 08:34:20 AM
 #36

...apart from growth of an altcoin instead (couldnt fit this in the title). But even that seems increasingly unlikely these days, more and more we hear of new coins being built on top of the bitcoin blockchain instead of their own thing.

Please could someone detail a plausible chain of events, other than an altcoin, preventing bitcoin from reaching dat moon?

The alt coin would have to be some type of coin which is super easy to mine (therefore acquire) and somehow works with the same security and speed as bitcoin.  It seems unlikely, alt coins are looking doomed.
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April 05, 2015, 09:59:01 AM
 #37

Perhaps something like this which was reported in the last few days : http://qntra.net/2015/04/obama-orders-war-on-computing-and-bitcoin-with-new-emergency-order-full-text/

It looks like they're going to use this to come after Bitcoin.

This is the full text of the order :

Quote
    Executive Order — "Blocking the Property of Certain Persons Engaging in Significant Malicious Cyber-Enabled Activities"

    EXECUTIVE ORDER

    – – – – – – –

    BLOCKING THE PROPERTY OF CERTAIN PERSONS ENGAGING IN SIGNIFICANT MALICIOUS CYBER-ENABLED ACTIVITIES

    By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq.) (IEEPA), the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601 et seq.) (NEA), section 212(f) of the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (8 U.S.C. 1182(f)), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code,

    I, BARACK OBAMA, President of the United States of America, find that the increasing prevalence and severity of malicious cyber-enabled activities originating from, or directed by persons located, in whole or in substantial part, outside the United States constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency to deal with this threat.

    Accordingly, I hereby order:

    Section 1. (a) All property and interests in property that are in the United States, that hereafter come within the United States, or that are or hereafter come within the possession or control of any United States person of the following persons are blocked and may not be transferred, paid, exported, withdrawn, or otherwise dealt in:

    (i) any person determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of State, to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have engaged in, directly or indirectly, cyber-enabled activities originating from, or directed by persons located, in whole or in substantial part, outside the United States that are reasonably likely to result in, or have materially contributed to, a significant threat to the national security, foreign policy, or economic health or financial stability of the United States and that have the purpose or effect of:

    (A) harming, or otherwise significantly compromising the provision of services by, a computer or network of computers that support one or more entities in a critical infrastructure sector;

    (B) significantly compromising the provision of services by one or more entities in a critical infrastructure sector;

    (C) causing a significant disruption to the availability of a computer or network of computers; or

    (D) causing a significant misappropriation of funds or economic resources, trade secrets, personal identifiers, or financial information for commercial or competitive advantage or private financial gain; or

    (ii) any person determined by the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of State:

    (A) to be responsible for or complicit in, or to have engaged in, the receipt or use for commercial or competitive advantage or private financial gain, or by a commercial entity, outside the United States of trade secrets misappropriated through cyber-enabled means, knowing they have been misappropriated, where the misappropriation of such trade secrets is reasonably likely to result in, or has materially contributed to, a significant threat to the national security, foreign policy, or economic health or financial stability of the United States;

    (B) to have materially assisted, sponsored, or provided financial, material, or technological support for, or goods or services in support of, any activity described in subsections (a)(i) or (a)(ii)(A) of this section or any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order;

    (C) to be owned or controlled by, or to have acted or purported to act for or on behalf of, directly or indirectly, any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order; or

    (D) to have attempted to engage in any of the activities described in subsections (a)(i) and (a)(ii)(A)-(C) of this section.

    (b) The prohibitions in subsection (a) of this section apply except to the extent provided by statutes, or in regulations, orders, directives, or licenses that may be issued pursuant to this order, and notwithstanding any contract entered into or any license or permit granted prior to the effective date of this order.

    Sec. 2. I hereby determine that the making of donations of the type of articles specified in section 203(b)(2) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702(b)(2)) by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to section 1 of this order would seriously impair my ability to deal with the national emergency declared in this order, and I hereby prohibit such donations as provided by section 1 of this order.

    Sec. 3. The prohibitions in section 1 of this order include but are not limited to:

    (a) the making of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services by, to, or for the benefit of any person whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order; and

    (b) the receipt of any contribution or provision of funds, goods, or services from any such person.

    Sec. 4. I hereby find that the unrestricted immigrant and nonimmigrant entry into the United States of aliens determined to meet one or more of the criteria in section 1(a) of this order would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, and I hereby suspend entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of such persons. Such persons shall be treated as persons covered by section 1 of Proclamation 8693 of July 24, 2011 (Suspension of Entry of Aliens Subject to United Nations Security Council Travel Bans and International Emergency Economic Powers Act Sanctions).

    Sec. 5. (a) Any transaction that evades or avoids, has the purpose of evading or avoiding, causes a violation of, or attempts to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

    (b) Any conspiracy formed to violate any of the prohibitions set forth in this order is prohibited.

    Sec. 6. For the purposes of this order:

    (a) the term "person" means an individual or entity;

    (b) the term "entity" means a partnership, association, trust, joint venture, corporation, group, subgroup, or other organization;

    (c) the term "United States person" means any United States citizen, permanent resident alien, entity organized under the laws of the United States or any jurisdiction within the United States (including foreign branches), or any person in the United States;

    (d) the term "critical infrastructure sector" means any of the designated critical infrastructure sectors identified in Presidential Policy Directive 21; and

    (e) the term "misappropriation" includes any taking or obtaining by improper means, without permission or consent, or under false pretenses.

    Sec. 7. For those persons whose property and interests in property are blocked pursuant to this order who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, I find that because of the ability to transfer funds or other assets instantaneously, prior notice to such persons of measures to be taken pursuant to this order would render those measures ineffectual. I therefore determine that for these measures to be effective in addressing the national emergency declared in this order, there need be no prior notice of a listing or determination made pursuant to section 1 of this order.

    Sec. 8. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to take such actions, including the promulgation of rules and regulations, and to employ all powers granted to the President by IEEPA as may be necessary to carry out the purposes of this order. The Secretary of the Treasury may redelegate any of these functions to other officers and agencies of the United States Government consistent with applicable law. All agencies of the United States Government are hereby directed to take all appropriate measures within their authority to carry out the provisions of this order.

    Sec. 9. The Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Attorney General and the Secretary of State, is hereby authorized to submit the recurring and final reports to the Congress on the national emergency declared in this order, consistent with section 401(c) of the NEA (50 U.S.C. 1641(c)) and section 204(c) of IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1703(c)).

    Sec. 10. This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

    BARACK OBAMA

    THE WHITE HOUSE,
    April 1, 2015.

uki
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April 05, 2015, 12:45:06 PM
 #38

^^ April's fools day. Check the date.

this space is intentionally left blank
futureofbitcoin
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April 05, 2015, 12:53:19 PM
 #39

It's amazing how much effort people are willing to put into an april fool's joke. Wow.
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April 05, 2015, 02:06:27 PM
 #40

^^ April's fools day. Check the date.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/01/executive-order-blocking-property-certain-persons-engaging-significant-m

OMGOMGOMG!!!1! The White House is trolling us!!!
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