The next 24 days are critical

[Luthier]

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?

[Bitcoiner_cph]

So from your analysis, no matter if we are above or below 230 at the end of the month, then we are in uptrend/bull-market?? Why didnt you just say that the price will go up??

Not that I really understand your arguments???

[Inotanewbie]

So from your analysis, no matter if we are above or below 230 at the end of the month, then we are in uptrend/bull-market?? Why didnt you just say that the price will go up??

Not that I really understand your arguments???

No if you read what he wrote properly you would see he is saying if we are above '230' he thinks it is a confirmed uptrend, if it is below 230 then we will be free falling to high double digits. That was really quite clear if you read what he wrote  I think we will be confirming your theory of a uptrend on the 26th of April. Well i hope so lol

[dasource]

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?

If only it was that simple ... Good to see different opinions none the less. Thanks

[randy8777]

so, basically it means that the price will go either up or down. which is already the case without reviewing charts.
i'm only not so sure about the double digits. i have the feeling we will never see double digits ever again.

[Q7]

It looks more like this to me. What do you guys think?



But I agree with OP that the couple of weeks ahead could be very exciting. If you look at the graph, the market has not really confirmed on the direction it is moving. It's either we will see the worst of the worst or finally something new with a reversal in the pattern.

[tokeweed]

Murphy's Law.  Whatever can happen will happen.  Just know what to do when it does.

[TheNewAnon135246]

Murphy's Law.  Whatever can happen will happen.  Just know what to do when it does.

Exactly. A lot of people draw random lines on a graph and tell us it will either go up or down. Not exactly a great prediction :/.

[unsoindovo]

For the long run it is sufficient an avg daily 200. but this can help you just for the long run.

[WhatTheGox]

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?

Many people saying april is important so must be seeing the same patterns. I think we are in an uptrend as everyone wants to buy bitcoin under $200.

[uki]

IMO these are the only 3 lines you need to draw.
The convergence of the uptrend and the top of the downtrend channel will happen around April 26th or so.
If we are above $230 at the end of the month, uptrend is confirmed.  If we are below $230, say hello to the bottom of the channel soon (high double digits).
Thoughts?
-snip-

RSI at the chart you presented favours the negative solution (to the downside).

[redsn0w]

Who care if bitcoin will drop under 200 dollars? Do you want a stable price or only a pump & dump scheme , like all the altcoins?

[tokeweed]

Who care if bitcoin will drop under 200 dollars? Do you want a stable price or only a pump & dump scheme , like all the altcoins?

You're right.  We have been waiting for a stable Bitcoin.  Now we have it.

[erikalui]

I don't think that if bitcoin is stable at $230 till the end of this month, the price will rise in May. It will most probably decrease and reach $200 but the price fluctuations last for a week or two. It was above $290 last month, $240 last week and now it is stable at $255. It will again reach that amount $270-$280 in the coming months if I follow the chart.

[uki]

Who care if bitcoin will drop under 200 dollars? Do you want a stable price or only a pump & dump scheme , like all the altcoins?

You're right.  We have been waiting for a stable Bitcoin.  Now we have it.

Stable? Well, I would rather say we are slowly reversing the down trend from the last year. We are now, indeed, in the horizontal trend, limited in between $200 and $300 roughly. If that is what you call stable, then we are stable.

[Luthier]

Extended periods of price stability are not possible now with Bitcoin.  Too many people know about it. 

As soon as people see a stable price the thought process goes: "Hmm this thing is looking pretty stable, maybe trending up slightly... this looks like a good investment, time to buy." "Buy?" "BUY??!" "BUUYYYY!!!" There goes the stability... 

Staying flat at $250 is not an option and we will be forced out of the triangle shown above within the next few weeks (maybe sooner).

[tokeweed]

Who care if bitcoin will drop under 200 dollars? Do you want a stable price or only a pump & dump scheme , like all the altcoins?

You're right.  We have been waiting for a stable Bitcoin.  Now we have it.

Stable? Well, I would rather say we are slowly reversing the down trend from the last year. We are now, indeed, in the horizontal trend, limited in between $200 and $300 roughly. If that is what you call stable, then we are stable.

The range could get narrower and narrower though...

[Shiver]

RSI at the chart you presented favours the negative solution (to the downside).

I get what you're saying, but RSI isn't a predictive indicator.  It could bounce around in the upper margin for an extended period if it wanted to.  I'm not saying it is a useless indicator, but that its use isn't in prediction, more for rule of thumb value measurement at best.

[uki]

RSI at the chart you presented favours the negative solution (to the downside).

I get what you're saying, but RSI isn't a predictive indicator.  It could bounce around in the upper margin for an extended period if it wanted to.  I'm not saying it is a useless indicator, but that its use isn't in prediction, more for rule of thumb value measurement at best.

sure it may. Have a look at the same chart at the end of 2013. RSI stayed for quite a long in the overbought area.
The difference is however, we didn't have the negative RSI we have on the chart now.

[Luthier]

Here's a closer look.  My personal prediction is that we will bounce around in the triangle until pretty much the very end, and then see a violent breakout.  If you believe in TA at all then this is a pretty important juncture.  This analysis has a long time frame with many data points supporting it.  I'm going to wait til we close a weekly candle or see significant volume outside the triangle and take a position accordingly, but everyone has their own strategy.  Good luck either way.