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Faraday
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August 17, 2012, 06:50:15 PM |
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So he lost 5000 bet?
No. The reason he made the bet was because he was planning to shutdown all along. He wins the bet as long as all funds owed are returned. |
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Herodes
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August 17, 2012, 06:51:01 PM |
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Heh.. did anyone do the actual math ?
Will be interesting to see when some people don't get paid on this one...
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URSAY
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August 17, 2012, 06:55:51 PM |
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ArticMine
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Monero Core Team
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August 17, 2012, 07:02:37 PM |
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Pirate was essentially a bear play. It made a lot of sense when the price of BTC was falling at over 7% a week with respect to USD. What made Bitcoin Savings & Trust unsustainable in the end was not the interest rate but the rising BTC / USD exchange rate!
If Pirate completes the closure of Bitcoin Savings & Trust as he has indicated this will be a class act on his part. As far as the impact on the bitcoin market it self, what we are witnessing is a very large and deep pocketed bear gracefully leave the market in the face of the bulls. I will leave it up to the reader to form their own conclusions.
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VelvetLeaf
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August 17, 2012, 07:03:53 PM |
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Panic selling incoming in 3..., 4...
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BTC : 1GN81dxzxyFPQsyAtdocXr5S9Mcg4wcfFG
LTC : LgmYvXsYXc4xdjsMKXJWqtagxVvioK6iaw
FC : 6dpSnKMtttUUYzaRu1EB7Lu18PBRVHU3V7
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finkleshnorts (OP)
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August 17, 2012, 07:05:10 PM |
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The fact that he is announcing a closure says a lot. I can't see a Ponzi announcing that he is sending back all new deposits.
Either way, I think we will see a big drop in price. Many of those coins coming back will be sold. If they don't come back, bad press and the newcomers rallying will start second guessing. I'm trying to sell.
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SaintFlow
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The first is by definition not flawed.
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August 17, 2012, 07:10:31 PM |
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The fact that he does not dump the coins on before weekend is a pure gentleman's act.
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don't let me make you question your assumptions
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bitcoinbear
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August 17, 2012, 07:13:59 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
All the investors who had depoits now have btc, they want to cash out, this will drive down price.
How much of the recent rise in price has been people bringing in money to invest in Pirate? Now that he is closing up shop, they will stop bring in money, this will also drive price down.
Since the price will stop rising, many miners/speculators will try to sell quickly to get the highest rate on their bitcoins, this will also cause the price to go down.
Dropping price will cause panic sells, this will also push down the price.
The sudden announcement from Pirate causes uncertainty in the market, this causes people to more cautiously invest, this allows the price to drop precipitiously.
All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
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yochdog
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August 17, 2012, 07:14:51 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
All the investors who had depoits now have btc, they want to cash out, this will drive down price.
How much of the recent rise in price has been people bringing in money to invest in Pirate? Now that he is closing up shop, they will stop bring in money, this will also drive price down.
Since the price will stop rising, many miners/speculators will try to sell quickly to get the highest rate on their bitcoins, this will also cause the price to go down.
Dropping price will cause panic sells, this will also push down the price.
The sudden announcement from Pirate causes uncertainty in the market, this causes people to more cautiously invest, this allows the price to drop precipitiously.
All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
been saying this for a while. |
I am a trusted trader! Ask Inaba, Luo Demin, Vanderbleek, Sannyasi, Episking, Miner99er, Isepick, Amazingrando, Cablez, ColdHardMetal, Dextryn, MB300sd, Robocoder, gnar1ta$ and many others!
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fcmatt
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August 17, 2012, 07:16:09 PM |
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so.. he does not have the money to pay out to everyone who wants it right now. shocking. not.
lets see how quickly he can "get the money back" from whatever he was doing.
i am going to bet this will get ugly as the week goes by and people do not have their btc.
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P4man
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August 17, 2012, 07:21:37 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
..
All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought. |
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yochdog
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August 17, 2012, 07:24:38 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
..
All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought. yes, that would be the brutal thing. Leverage all your fiat to buy high yielding BTC......aaaaaand it's gone. That would remove a lot of buyers from ever coming back. |
I am a trusted trader! Ask Inaba, Luo Demin, Vanderbleek, Sannyasi, Episking, Miner99er, Isepick, Amazingrando, Cablez, ColdHardMetal, Dextryn, MB300sd, Robocoder, gnar1ta$ and many others!
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wachtwoord
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August 17, 2012, 07:25:25 PM |
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and possibly live under a bridge  |
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bitcoinbear
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August 17, 2012, 07:27:07 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
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All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought. yes, that would be the brutal thing. Leverage all your fiat to buy high yielding BTC......aaaaaand it's gone. That would remove a lot of buyers from ever coming back. Like they always say, "Don't invest more than you are prepared to lose" I have no direct exsposure to Pirate, anybody else clean of this mess with me? |
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Spekulatius
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August 17, 2012, 07:27:31 PM |
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Since BTCST is now closing, what does it mean for speculators? You see it right now: We are going down, because people want to cash out in fears of BS&T default scenarios. Price will continue to plummet till Monday, if no good news till then even further. Also, More bitcoin on the market mean, more selling activity after lenders are payed back. Prepare for 8$ next week. |
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yochdog
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August 17, 2012, 07:32:38 PM |
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Assuming he does pay everything back ...
..
All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.
Unless your initial assumption is wrong. In that case, people will own 100Ks of BTC less than they thought. yes, that would be the brutal thing. Leverage all your fiat to buy high yielding BTC......aaaaaand it's gone. That would remove a lot of buyers from ever coming back. Like they always say, "Don't invest more than you are prepared to lose" I have no direct exsposure to Pirate, anybody else clean of this mess with me? Me as well. I would have loved to have rode the gravy train if it ends up paying out......but 7% just seemed too fishy. |
I am a trusted trader! Ask Inaba, Luo Demin, Vanderbleek, Sannyasi, Episking, Miner99er, Isepick, Amazingrando, Cablez, ColdHardMetal, Dextryn, MB300sd, Robocoder, gnar1ta$ and many others!
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CoinDiver
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August 17, 2012, 07:32:41 PM |
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Pirate knows his announcement is going to drop the price drastically... and his assets are in fiat. Drop the market, buy it back as people freak out, refund on Monday with the BTC you purchased... profit.
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ChrisKoss
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August 17, 2012, 07:32:45 PM |
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It depends a lot on whether or not he defaults. If its an orderly closing and everyone gets their moolah back, there might be a correction because of some profit taking. If instead he defaults and absconds with the moolah, BTCUSD should go up a bit as some percentage of the victims try to cover the lost BTC.
+1 |
I am a consultant providing services to CoinLab, Inc.
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yochdog
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August 17, 2012, 07:33:36 PM |
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Pirate knows his announcement is going to drop the price drastically... and his assets are in fiat. Drop the market, buy it back as people freak out, refund on Monday with the BTC you purchased... profit.
I have thought this through 100x times.......and it is almost perfect. We will see. |
I am a trusted trader! Ask Inaba, Luo Demin, Vanderbleek, Sannyasi, Episking, Miner99er, Isepick, Amazingrando, Cablez, ColdHardMetal, Dextryn, MB300sd, Robocoder, gnar1ta$ and many others!
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Vandroiy
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August 17, 2012, 07:38:26 PM |
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So he lost 5000 bet?
Who's "he", just curious? The shut-down is not surprising, as there are signs of withdrawals but few signs of deposits. At the end of the month, you will know who won. BTW, from timing comparisons, this crash would've happened shortly anyway. BS&T should only have been a minor factor. |
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