Bitcoin Savings & Trust closing! Effect on market?

[BlackBison]

100% after the news.. someone linked the original pirate announcement thread in btc-e chat and as I was reading it the price was still at 15 for at least another 10mins or so before starting to drop

[finkleshnorts]

100% after the news.. someone linked the original pirate announcement thread in btc-e chat and as I was reading it the price was still at 15 for at least another 10mins or so before starting to drop

It was. I wish I could have had all my bitcoins confirm at Gox in time, because my plan was the same.

[bitcoinbear]

Assuming he does pay everything back ...

All the investors who had depoits now have btc, they want to cash out, this will drive down price.

How much of the recent rise in price has been people bringing in money to invest in Pirate? Now that he is closing up shop, they will stop bring in money, this will also drive price down.

Since the price will stop rising, many miners/speculators will try to sell quickly to get the highest rate on their bitcoins, this will also cause the price to go down.

Dropping price will cause panic sells, this will also push down the price.

The sudden announcement from Pirate causes uncertainty in the market, this causes people to more cautiously invest, this allows the price to drop precipitiously.

All indicators are for downward movement, by my reconing.

As I stated above, I suspected the immediate affect would be a drop in price. I had an order sitting at MtGox for $10.65, the price dropped to $10.60. While I just got my trade in, and it looks like I was really smart, it was mostly just luck on my part. I had no way of guessing exactly where the price would drop to, but I am happy I got my trade in. Big moves are still possible, so we will just have to see where things go from here.

[proudhon]

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

[Electricbees]

Price goes up, Price goes down...

You can't explain that! 

[kentrolla]

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

mtgox

[Rassah]

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

Were there really that many people keeping their coins with pirate? I figures most people thought his BS&L was considered either a scam or too risky, and most BTC owners stayed away?

[finkleshnorts]

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

Were there really that many people keeping their coins with pirate? I figures most people thought his BS&L was considered either a scam or too risky, and most BTC owners stayed away?

~400k, give or take a lot

[BlackBison]

btw proudhon time to change your avatar to something like this: 

[jwzguy]

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement? If anything, I would expect this news to make the price go up. The only scenarios I can come up with are that you thought pirate was going to do massive selling in order to run off with USD instead of bitcoin - (which doesn't make much sense to me. If so, why bother announcing? Why run off with USD?) - or because you think all the demand for buying BTC is coming from people who wanted to invest with him/with PPTs? 

[BoardGameCoin]

Why run off with USD?

# of people and locations willing to accept USD no questions asked > the same for bitcoin

[Faraday]

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement? If anything, I would expect this news to make the price go up. The only scenarios I can come up with are that you thought pirate was going to do massive selling in order to run off with USD instead of bitcoin - (which doesn't make much sense to me. If so, why bother announcing? Why run off with USD?) - or because you think all the demand for buying BTC is coming from people who wanted to invest with him/with PPTs? 

Because some people think the investors might sell (If they get btc back) because possibly the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to make huge amounts of interest from his scheme.

[jwzguy]

Because some people think the investors might sell (If they get btc back) because possibly the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to make huge amounts of interest from his scheme.

Ok...I appreciate the reply...I just don't understand the basis for that. Why would they need to immediately cash out to USD? A lot of people are sitting on 0% interest BTC investments. Even if you're not getting interest from Pirate, it's still going up against the dollar - even in the face of this drop we're still way up. I just don't know why it would be a given that people would want to immediately dump after getting their funds back.

[OgNasty]

Because some people think the investors might sell (If they get btc back) because possibly the only reason they bought the bitcoins was to make huge amounts of interest from his scheme.

Ok...I appreciate the reply...I just don't understand the basis for that. Why would they need to immediately cash out to USD? A lot of people are sitting on 0% interest BTC investments. Even if you're not getting interest from Pirate, it's still going up against the dollar - even in the face of this drop we're still way up. I just don't know why it would be a given that people would want to immediately dump after getting their funds back.

Profit?   

[jwzguy]

Profit?   

Again - why is there an assumption that you have to realize your gains instantly to profit? There's more reason to believe you'll profit more by staying in.

Or are you saying all these guys who invested in a HYIP are bears? That just doesn't make much sense to me.

I guess it made sense to someone, from that dump, if that's truly the reason.

[Ichthyo]

eveyone knows that the BTC rate went to high too fast. The general uptrend might be ok, but eveyone expects corrections. Thus, the actual content of the announcement isn't substancial. Any news of some significance to BTC which isn't outright positive could trigger a correction.

[evolve]

Well, gosh, now that bitcoinica is gone and pirate's shutting down his operation, where are we all going to centralize our decentralized currency?

Mtgox.   

[jwzguy]

eveyone knows that the BTC rate went to high too fast. The general uptrend might be ok, but eveyone expects corrections. Thus, the actual content of the announcement isn't substancial. Any news of some significance to BTC which isn't outright positive could trigger a correction.

The price of BTC went up at exactly the speed it needed to in order to fulfill the market orders which were placed. So your "everyone" obviously can't include all the people who bought. It also can't really include any (rational) people who didn't sell.

In order for this news to be considered an indicator of a downturn, I'm assuming people have some scenario in mind which would lead to that downturn. I'm just asking what it is, as my best guesses still don't seem very likely.

[finkleshnorts]

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement?

Because I knew everyone else would sell. Markets are silly like that.

[VelvetLeaf]

Because I knew everyone else would sell. Markets are silly like that.

+1 for being honest.

Why did you guys sell on news of this announcement?

Jokes aside, you should know that every $2 increment, there will be a correction.
After bitcoin passed $12 because of the bug on MtGox and there's no correction at all, a "correction" at $15 is suitable.
Also, $15 is half of $30's bubble.
If enough people think the same things, a "correction" will happen.