[POLL] How will Pirateat40's debt repayment unfold?

[finkleshnorts]

Gauging public opinion here.

Mods, this may belong in Speculation but I'm not sure. I think it works here.

If you wish, tell us why you voted.

[smoothie]

In bitcoin repayment (not fiat).....he will never return ALL of the bitcoins from his investors.

 

[unclescrooge]

Yes, actually we saw the first part. He dumped a lot on the market, probably to take USD profit and to lower the price of bitcoin. Now he will slowly buy back some coins to repay his lendors.
Now I expect that most of the lendors will, as soon as they receive their coins back, returned them on MTGOX to panick sell them... right to Pirate, who will buy them again to repay others lendors.
If Pirate is good (and I think he is) then that will be one hell of a dump (we're probably talking of several hundreds of thousands of coins) that will be sold in panick.

So time for cheap coins is coming (that actually the only good news I see in this story). After that, how will bitcoin recover, I don't know, but its outlook sure looks better than a year ago so I'm still confident in its long term future. Lots of exciting things coming!

[AndrewBUD]

I am very curious to see what happens after all of this..........

[bitsire]

Personally I feel that Pirate will pay back every last BTC. I just joined the forum back in April and it seemed that everyone was one big happy family at first and then all of a sudden the FUD against Pirate absolutely exploded to the point where it seems people are spending their entire day on this forum warning others about the dangers of the "Pirate Ponzi". Think about it - why are people devoting so much of their time and energy worrying about other people's money for absolutely nothing in return? The only explanation I can think of is that this is some sort of psyops that was put into action to try to discredit Bitcoin and contain its rise.

[P4man]

Personally I feel that Pirate will pay back every last BTC. I just joined the forum back in April and it seemed that everyone was one big happy family at first and then all of a sudden the FUD against Pirate absolutely exploded to the point where it seems people are spending their entire day on this forum warning others about the dangers of the "Pirate Ponzi". Think about it - why are people devoting so much of their time and energy worrying about other people's money for absolutely nothing in return? The only explanation I can think of is that this is some sort of psyops that was put into action to try to discredit Bitcoin and contain its rise.

Lol?
So you think its more likely the "psyops" would consist of  people warning of the danger that  some semi anonymous guy with an inexplicable  business model paying >3000% interest per year on a sum thats in the millions of dollars is likely a ponzi?  How on earth does that discredit bitcoin ? If you are going to be delusionally paranoid that a psyops is somehow involved to "discredit bitcoin",  wouldnt it  make 100x more sense to actually set up a large scale ponzi?

[imsaguy]

Gauging public opinion here.

Mods, this may belong in Speculation but I'm not sure. I think it works here.

If you wish, tell us why you voted.

Probably belongs in "service discussion"

[bitsire]

Personally I feel that Pirate will pay back every last BTC. I just joined the forum back in April and it seemed that everyone was one big happy family at first and then all of a sudden the FUD against Pirate absolutely exploded to the point where it seems people are spending their entire day on this forum warning others about the dangers of the "Pirate Ponzi". Think about it - why are people devoting so much of their time and energy worrying about other people's money for absolutely nothing in return? The only explanation I can think of is that this is some sort of psyops that was put into action to try to discredit Bitcoin and contain its rise.

Lol?
So you think its more likely the "psyops" would consist of  people warning of the danger that  some semi anonymous guy with an inexplicable  business model paying >3000% interest per year on a sum thats in the millions of dollars is likely a ponzi?  How on earth does that discredit bitcoin ? If you are going to be delusionally paranoid that a psyops is somehow involved to "discredit bitcoin",  wouldnt it  make 100x more sense to actually set up a large scale ponzi?

LOL, so when I get my BTC back next week what will be your theory then - a ponzi that made people money, paid everyone back and then closed? I guess all the new posters that sprouted up over the last two months to warn people about the dangers of Bitcoin lending must be doing so out of the goodness of their hearts? It's not like the FBI, the Brazilian and now Australian authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about Bitcoin or anything.

I read about a precious metals forum a while back that researched their server logs and discovered that a lot of the shill posts discrediting investing in metals were coming from the same IP address, which just happened to belong to a large US bank. So if you think it is not believable for a government or institution to pay people to go on forums to discredit things that aren't in their interests then you are quite naive.

[Matthew N. Wright]

I don't know how you guys feel about betting, but for those of you who really think he's full of shit, then this should be easy money for you: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751

[P4man]

LOL, so when I get my BTC back next week what will be your theory then - a ponzi that made people money, paid everyone back and then closed?

I dont have one; and no one so far has formulated a credible one. But whatever it is or is not,  certainly wouldnt have to involve "psyops to descredit bitcoin".

I do know that if it turns out to be a ponzi where millions of dollars go up in smoke, that will make the press and do infinitely more damage to bitcoins reputation than some forums posts warning about a ponzi that turned out not to be one..

[Raoul Duke]

LOL, so when I get my BTC back next week what will be your theory then - a ponzi that made people money, paid everyone back and then closed?

I dont have one; and no one so far has formulated a credible one. But whatever it is or is not,  certainly wouldnt have to involve "psyops to descredit bitcoin".

I do know that if it turns out to be a ponzi where millions of dollars go up in smoke, that will make the press and do infinitely more damage to bitcoins reputation than some forums posts warning about a ponzi that turned out not to be one..

The accusations made it to the press. Retractions will need to be made, wether the press wants it or not.

[AndrewBUD]

Have people started to receive their money?

[drakahn]

Its not monday for pirate yet.

smoke moar

[AndrewBUD]

Oh sorry,,, Tomorrow is Monday I am excited to see what happens..... I think he must be boarding a plane as we speak to go somewhere away from here

[guruvan]

Millions (in USD) did just go up in smoke.
lol., And mirrors.

By now pirate has at least half again as many coins as he'd borrowed - he's made a killing in BTC taking a serious short position while locking up gobs of coin (slick manuever)

Seems that after such a serious act of piracy, to steal our coins would just be plain greedy.

And foolish.

I asked a wise friend his opinion when I mentioned the name "pirate@40" - and my friend suggested "coyote@40" is more like it.

This would be a coyote move if I ever saw one.

"I will pay you gobs for your coin...how about..say 7%?! KEWL. OMG, the price rose a lot, I can only pay 5%!! What?!?! You wantz ur moniez back?! ORLY? Sooo many of u? I Fold! Can't keep up! I haz ur munneh, But you gotta wait a sec, They're all invested and it'll take me a minute to ......Sell all your BTCs!! (and buy twice as many back!) mwahaha....  Now. Here's your coin back (at 2/3 the USD value) - and BTW, I have as many coins as all y'all now. Thank's for financing it, hope you feel 7% was worth it. Suckers!!!"

It's the subtle difference between being bitch slapped into next week, and having the shit kicked out of you.

But, hats off to pirate - if he returns the money. Very well executed.

If he doesn't return the money, I hope he haz internetz on the space ship so he can spend his coin.  He'd be crazy to hide on earth.

[P4man]

It doesnt work that way. Sure, if you have 500K btc you can crash the price, easily. But you can not buy back 500K btc later without sending the price in to the stratosphere.

[finkleshnorts]

It doesnt work that way. Sure, if you have 500K btc you can crash the price, easily. But you can not buy back 500K btc later without sending the price in to the stratosphere.

+1

[Soros Shorts]

It doesnt work that way. Sure, if you have 500K btc you can crash the price, easily. But you can not buy back 500K btc later without sending the price in to the stratosphere.

Is this always true? What if the market was overbought, or due for a correction/crash? In such a situation it would be reasonable to expect that a smaller amount of BTC would be needed to trigger the crash and you would likely be able to cover the sale without bringing the price back to the original. The key is knowing when the market is in such a condition. Now according to the economists and their Efficient Market Hypothesis it is not possible for any one market participant to have an information edge in determining this type of condition. In practice many successful traders will tell you this is not true - especially the liquidity-provider type traders who are in the market 100% of the time.

Edit: to make some use of my stupid nick Google the following for a couple of examples where the George Soros made a killing shorting at the right time and destroyed economies in the process:

   - soros shorts pound 1992
   - soros shorts bhat 1997

[herzmeister]

The PPTs are now also essentially bets if pirate will pay back or not.

On Goat's, 1 bond currently trades for around 0.85 BTC (bouncing up from a previous 0.5 BTC). Very pro-pirate mood. 

So bond holders still can get their coins back now, without much loss. It's not usual to get this opportunity in the "end game" of an alleged ponzi scheme I guess.

[unclescrooge]

Personally I feel that Pirate will pay back every last BTC. I just joined the forum back in April and it seemed that everyone was one big happy family at first and then all of a sudden the FUD against Pirate absolutely exploded to the point where it seems people are spending their entire day on this forum warning others about the dangers of the "Pirate Ponzi". Think about it - why are people devoting so much of their time and energy worrying about other people's money for absolutely nothing in return? The only explanation I can think of is that this is some sort of psyops that was put into action to try to discredit Bitcoin and contain its rise.

+1

The turn of events in the forum is quite sad. I hope that when Pirate pays everyone back we can all forget about this, and move on to more happy discussions (and stop accusing without proof, like Mathew said).