The recurring trouble-cycle of bitcoins, and why I'm here.

[Coreadrin_47]

I know I'm very new here in terms of post count and all that.  I'm a long-time lurker (since 2010 when Robert Prechter did a special report on bitcoins in his monthly newsletter), and I am also a long-term holder of bitcoins (mining on a dual-core CPU at that time, generating about 50btc per month, and made some purchases around $.10-$.15/BTC way back then).

Oh, how things have changed.

Bitcoin is very, very viable long-term.  It's only weakness is that it hasn't been selected as a commodity and then assigned a monetary premium by an organic and complex market, but instead was simply created with the intent of being used as a unit of exchange and account.  The trade-off, however, is total decentralization - no clearinghouse, no depository for gold or silver that may or may not actually have it, etc.  I am a long-time precious metals investor (Thanks, in part, to my love of the Austrian school, and my distrust of all artificial monopolies - including those in currency), and I think that precious metals will again become the "gold standard" for money in the world as state-monopolized money lose all credibility and confidence.

That being said, you still have the fight against human nature when you are dealing with PM's in the digital age.  Anybody can start a gold depository or silver depository and set up a financial network on top of it.  The trouble with it is that all you have to go on is a quarterly or monthly audit, and hope that "your" metal is still sitting exactly where it's supposed to be.  There are a ton of such services, and the scams are being exposed out the woodwork over the past few months.  Strong, legitimate companies are few and far between - GoldMoney, SmartMetals, and several others seem to be very legitimate allocated holdings.  Peter Schiff's new EuroPac Bank has allocated holdings with a linked debit card that converts your metals to whichever currency you happen to be spending.

If you don't know who Peter Schiff is, check out "Peter Schiff was Right" on youtube.  If you are interested in signing up for an allocated metals account at his bank in the West Indies (sorry, NO US Citizens thanks to Dodd-Frank), here's a link (yes, I will get a small headhunting fee as I have been an account holder since about 2 days after he opened the bank lol):

http://secure.europacbank.com/register_alt.php?ra=248e844336797ec98478f85e7626de4a

The other disadvantage to gold and silver is that they are physical goods, and they must move through the physical world.  A central depository could set up a worldwide network to distribute redeemable certificates (digital or otherwise), but eventually the metal has to follow, which is far slower and prone to serious security risks.  This can be a burden in a world of instant transactions.  Bitcoin solves this problem - 25 minutes and you've got your asset, free and clear.

My background is in finance and economics, which is sort of funny because I had to "unlearn" a lot of what I learned (in the future, mainstream economics (Keynes, Chicago, etc.), as it is practiced today, will probably be held in the same esteem as blood-letting doctors are regarded by modern medicine, or flat-earth "astronomers" are regarded by their modern counterparts).  Thankfully I was still young enough and saw several international financial crises that mainstream economics were absolutely blindsided by, while a certain few people seemed to be saying "yeah, I told you so".  I'm sure most here are subscribers to the Austrian school, or at least to the tenants of praxeology and free markets, so I'm not going to go on a huge diatribe about it.

Anyway, the big question is going to be - where do we go from here?  There is a massive scandal unfolding as we speak which will likely shake bitcoin to its core along the lines of the Mt. Gox hack last year and the fold-up of the online wallets and the recent bitcoinica hack and collapse (along with your money).  My suspicion is that we will see bitcoin make a new low relative to the lows it put in after the initial blow-off last year. This will likely be the last single-digit move we see for a very, very long time.  This is the last "is survival possible?" time for bitcoin.  If we can make it through the coming storm, the future is wide open.

This is the "trouble-cycle" of bitcoin.  The community is so optimistic and so ready to push the envelope, which is amazing.  But it leaves us prone to getting burned and ripped off, and the anonymity that is so key to bitcoin can also be a deadly enemy.  It seems that every few months, someone comes along and offers a "new" idea, consolidating a whole bunch of bitcoins and then taking off with them, either through their own maliciousness or through being careless with what becomes a very, very low-hanging fruit for attackers.  These bumps and scrapes will hopefully push the community to come up with its own self-regulating mechanisms and hoops through which legitimate opportunities and offerings will gladly jump to better serve their customers.  This is one of the areas I am very excited to bring some ideas to the table for the community.

From where I'm sitting, bitcoin is one of the avenues of the future.  I do think that local and regional economies will embrace privately-minted money once nation-states have destroyed faith in their promises-on-paper.  The entire planet is over-leveraged on promises to a level I can only call insane.  Your bank book is only a promise to hopefully have the money on hand if you decide to come in and withdraw it.  Actual cash will be king, and all bitcoins are cash, which is key.  Bitcoin will bridge the gap of instantaneous transactions that we have come to expect, which commodity money can only truly do within the same central depository institution.  It is the "perfect" unit of exchange and account.

I want to bring what I can to the bitcoin community.  The more goods and services that are offered in bitcoins, the stronger and more viable this money will become.  I'm keeping everything pretty close to the chest right now, but I will say that in any avenue of finance or services that I offer, my own personal information will be fully available.  I will not hide behind an anonymous username, behind "forum rep" or anything silly like that.  Every venture that I start, I will personally hold at least a 10% stake in it, up to 100%, and anyone who wants to do business with me can know who they are doing business with.  But again, this is all for much later - I just basically wanted to write a bit of an intro, what I think is happening with BTC right now, and say hello to everyone here.

My own goals are very ambitious.  I want to be here to help take bitcoin to the next level, along with any competing currency that has the same merits.  I want to see 1 in 100 people on this planet actually know what the word Bitcoin means.  This is one of the greatest tools of economic freedom that has ever been available, and we need this, all of us.  Bitcoin is to money what Gutenberg was to education and free speech.

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[istar]

Lets do it

[misterbigg]

Great post, well written. Doesn't really provide much in terms of new information but it's a really nice summary of the current state of events. Jennifer Lawrence gives it a hearty thumbs up...

[TraderTimm]

Greetings.

Nice post, and you are correct - elements of greed are hard to root out of any system. My belief is as adoption increases the depth of market should as well, which should dampen any volatility. We're just too 'new' still in terms of the current BTC market to not be affected by large trades.

I'm here for the long haul too, so I suspect we'll see improvement in this area over time.

[finkleshnorts]

Thanks for such a great (and encouraging) post.

[mobodick]

I wonder why this is posted in 'Speculation'.
...

[macsga]

I totally agree with this great post. Let's see what happens next... shall we?

[zhalox]

Your speech was encouraging and inspiring.  I too am an ardent fan of Austrian economics, Peter Schiff, Ron Paul, and other like-minded individuals.  Bitcoin is the greatest invention since the internet, and if we do our part, people will soon realize this and further contribute to this young & growing economy.  May Bitcoin and all other tools of liberty succeed.  For freedom!

[miscreanity]

Well put. Yes, it might best be posted in discussion than speculation, but that's a minor quibble.

Your comments about precious metals still requiring some sort of custodial representation are spot-on. There is no other practical way to make the monetary metals function efficiently in a modern market environment.

In mentioning Franken-Dodd - it was the final straw that pushed me to participate exclusively in Bitcoin, remaining in traditional markets only to the extent absolutely required and a disposable play fund. Counterparty risk will push the world over that edge in due time, so being this far ahead will allow early adopters to ride that wave.

[Coreadrin_47]

I guess you guys are sort of right about posting in "discussion", however my background and focus are more on the financial side of things, which I generally consider "speculation", so I just tossed it in here.  If a mod feels like moving it elsewhere, by all means!

One of the things I would like to set up is an actual ratings system for bitcoin securities and institutions.  One of the things that bitcoin entrepreneurs are going to have to get over is some of their anonymity.  People need to have a recourse, and I want to set up a rating system and a sort of BBB for bitcoin businesses, who I can vet based on their operations, actual cash and bitcoin holdings, etc, and rank them on viability and on trust.  Kind of like BBB meets Yelp, for bitcoin businesses.

I am also looking at other opportunities to make dealing in physical goods with bitcoins a lot safer, even over distances.  I'm not saying more than that about that specific venture right now, but my goal is to set up a sort of network for bitcoin that brings good, moral entrepreneurs and customers into the fold and leaves the scammers and tramps (old definition, here) out hanging in the wind.  Sort of a "digital, gated society" that offers security and recourse in the even of a dispute.  And, because my background is mainly in investing, I want to offer investment opportunities that are very transparent and give long-term holders and adopters a place to put their coins and generate a yield (an actual, real, achievable target and full breakdown of allocations and holdings, all done through offshore accounts that are untouchable by western governments, and all with a minimum 10% ownership by myself or any other "insider").

This is something I've been cooking on the back burner while I wind down my own business operations in the physical world.  The climate is becoming a disaster to do business where I am, and I almost feel bad for the fellow who's buying me out, because of the legislative shitstorm and army of bureaucrats that will crash down on his head as of next year.  But, it is what it is, and I am shifting myself over to the last realm on earth that is a truly free market - the digital one.  I can't begin to explain how excited I am for bitcoin and for the digital economy, which has been growing by double digits YoY since it sprung up in the 1990's.  And that is on the back of a fiat currency and draconian financial system.  How much more do we have to look forward to now that money itself is back in our hands!

[misterbigg]

Don't be so quick to dismiss gold and silver. They both have their place. If you flee to a lesser developed agrarian country (which is more resilient to a failure of fiat money), some precious metal coins can be very handy for acquiring goods and services. The advantage is that metals are widely accepted by street merchants (ironically, except in the G20 countries).

Some precious metals could be a good hold over until fiat has completely destroyed itself and the Bitcoin economy becomes pervasive.

[Technomage]

Great post. Bitcoin is still experiencing significant growing pains but they will get better through time as we learn and go forward. What we need is people like you who want to build this economy and create true progress!

[cypherdoc]

nice post OP and i share your outlook on pm's and Bitcoin.  good luck. 

[Coreadrin_47]

Don't be so quick to dismiss gold and silver. They both have their place. If you flee to a lesser developed agrarian country (which is more resilient to a failure of fiat money), some precious metal coins can be very handy for acquiring goods and services. The advantage is that metals are widely accepted by street merchants (ironically, except in the G20 countries).

Some precious metals could be a good hold over until fiat has completely destroyed itself and the Bitcoin economy becomes pervasive.

I absolutely agree with this.  PM's will get food to your mouth and a roof over your head while fiat is dying.  My focus on bitcoin is philosophical, economic, and even a bit philanthropic.  Bitcoin is international money.  It can facilitate international trade across institutions while a central-depository PM currency will take days to do this on any transaction outside of its own institution.  This is what makes it brilliant.

For philosophical and economic reasons, it is simply because bitcoin is a moral money, much like anything else the market voluntarily elects i.e. gold, silver, etc.  It is because when the market (whenever I say "market" in any conversation I have on here, this is my condensed term for "all of the voluntarily interacting human beings making choices all of the time") chooses the money, the market flourishes.

What we have seen in the digital economy is growth that only existed in the physical economy for a short time - the Gilded Age, where true economic expansion in production under gold and silver increased at a rate beyond anything in the scarce realm before, or since.  We are in the Gilded Age of the digital economy, and more and more scare resources are being brought into it for that reason.  Already, millions upon millions of man-hours of former labour are now instantaneous and infinitely-replicatable in the digital realm, freeing up untold riches in human capital and that most precious commodity - time.  It's the most beautiful thing for the human race that has happened in ages.

The philanthropic aspect is sort of a two-edged sword (and I'm holding the hilt!).  On the one hand, I want to cut off the mechanism that allows states to hire people, ship them off to other countries, and pay them to murder hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians.  War is not possible without currency monopoly, at least any war that violates the NAP is not (pre-emptive/aggressive).  Can you possible imagine how it would work out if the US government had to actually extract every dollar it uses to pay the Offensive Military directly from the hands of taxpayers?  There is no way.  The "Great Society" would die on the vine as it should, because there is no way you could tax what has been monetized directly from the hands of productive people.  They wouldn't stand for it.    This is why no "true believer" progressive ever talks about abolishing central banking, only "reforming" it - they know their vision of every second of life being managed by "experts" and being "equal" for all, is absolutely impossible under market money.

What we have now is that people know something is wrong, in their gut, they are a bit resentful of how much is being stolen directly from them, and they instinctively have the impulse to speculate because their store of "value" buys less and less every year.  Imagine if tax-by-central-bank became an actual attempt to tax!  It would be the Whiskey Rebellion all over again (and damned straight!), with the good guys likely winning.

On the other hand, there is only one key to actually stopping men and women from signing up to head off and kill other people in other countries for the sins of their governments or tiny factions therein.  That key is trade.  People do not kill each other when they do business together and make money from each other.  "when goods and services cross borders, soldiers won't".  It is extremely hard to propagandize me that all Chinese are evil cannibals who want to murder me for being randomly born in an arbitrarily fined geographic region, when just last night I was on the phone with Wong and we worked out a very good deal to get some stuff shipped over for me.  This is why you see economic sanctions, always, before you see military action - it is part of the "consensus" upon which our society has disgustingly set the foundation for its morality.  Our latest example is Iran, and military action is sure to follow unless the bond market does what I am praying it should, and forces the US government to shrivel up and die (disclosure:  I am fully leveraged short in long-term treasuries as of about 2 weeks ago, along with Japanese long bonds, German bunds, and France long term debt).

Bitcoin is something that can usher in world piece as a two edged sword - it removes the monetization possibility that enables war, and it keeps people in the rational world, where they do business together and benefit each other.  Rational people are that much harder to propagandize, and would revolt if their economic success were cut off because of politicking.  It really can be a tool that could re-shape so many paradigms of society.

Sorry for the rant.  My fingers need a break.  Once I get typing about this stuff it's hard to stop...

[BoardGameCoin]

Honest money: the principle benefit of bitcoin.

[mobodick]

Honest money: the principle benefit of bitcoin.

I loled...

[cypherdoc]

What we have now is that people know something is wrong, in their gut, they are a bit resentful of how much is being stolen directly from them, and they instinctively have the impulse to speculate because their store of "value" buys less and less every year.  

i totally agree with this and it's my supposition that this entire rise off the $2 level has been driven by this market instinct and NOT pirate.  i'm constantly amazed by how ppl around here panic based on such concocted theories and comments from a ponzi schemer and scammer.

[kjj]

What we have now is that people know something is wrong, in their gut, they are a bit resentful of how much is being stolen directly from them, and they instinctively have the impulse to speculate because their store of "value" buys less and less every year.  

i totally agree with this and it's my supposition that this entire rise off the $2 level has been driven by this market instinct and NOT pirate.  i'm constantly amazed by how ppl around here panic based on such concocted theories and comments from a ponzi schemer and scammer.

In general, people have very predictable preferences.

1 - They are in control.
2 - They aren't in control, but someone is.
3 - No one is in control, shit just happens.

People can obviously see that #1 isn't true for most things, so they go with #2 because they like it better than #3.  This is why insane conspiracy theories are so common and popular.

[kentrolla]

Don't be so quick to dismiss gold and silver. They both have their place. If you flee to a lesser developed agrarian country (which is more resilient to a failure of fiat money), some precious metal coins can be very handy for acquiring goods and services. The advantage is that metals are widely accepted by street merchants (ironically, except in the G20 countries).

Some precious metals could be a good hold over until fiat has completely destroyed itself and the Bitcoin economy becomes pervasive.

I absolutely agree with this.  PM's will get food to your mouth and a roof over your head while fiat is dying.  My focus on bitcoin is philosophical, economic, and even a bit philanthropic.  Bitcoin is international money.  It can facilitate international trade across institutions while a central-depository PM currency will take days to do this on any transaction outside of its own institution.  This is what makes it brilliant.

For philosophical and economic reasons, it is simply because bitcoin is a moral money, much like anything else the market voluntarily elects i.e. gold, silver, etc.  It is because when the market (whenever I say "market" in any conversation I have on here, this is my condensed term for "all of the voluntarily interacting human beings making choices all of the time") chooses the money, the market flourishes.

What we have seen in the digital economy is growth that only existed in the physical economy for a short time - the Gilded Age, where true economic expansion in production under gold and silver increased at a rate beyond anything in the scarce realm before, or since.  We are in the Gilded Age of the digital economy, and more and more scare resources are being brought into it for that reason.  Already, millions upon millions of man-hours of former labour are now instantaneous and infinitely-replicatable in the digital realm, freeing up untold riches in human capital and that most precious commodity - time.  It's the most beautiful thing for the human race that has happened in ages.

The philanthropic aspect is sort of a two-edged sword (and I'm holding the hilt!).  On the one hand, I want to cut off the mechanism that allows states to hire people, ship them off to other countries, and pay them to murder hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians.  War is not possible without currency monopoly, at least any war that violates the NAP is not (pre-emptive/aggressive).  Can you possible imagine how it would work out if the US government had to actually extract every dollar it uses to pay the Offensive Military directly from the hands of taxpayers?  There is no way.  The "Great Society" would die on the vine as it should, because there is no way you could tax what has been monetized directly from the hands of productive people.  They wouldn't stand for it.    This is why no "true believer" progressive ever talks about abolishing central banking, only "reforming" it - they know their vision of every second of life being managed by "experts" and being "equal" for all, is absolutely impossible under market money.

What we have now is that people know something is wrong, in their gut, they are a bit resentful of how much is being stolen directly from them, and they instinctively have the impulse to speculate because their store of "value" buys less and less every year.  Imagine if tax-by-central-bank became an actual attempt to tax!  It would be the Whiskey Rebellion all over again (and damned straight!), with the good guys likely winning.

On the other hand, there is only one key to actually stopping men and women from signing up to head off and kill other people in other countries for the sins of their governments or tiny factions therein.  That key is trade.  People do not kill each other when they do business together and make money from each other.  "when goods and services cross borders, soldiers won't".  It is extremely hard to propagandize me that all Chinese are evil cannibals who want to murder me for being randomly born in an arbitrarily fined geographic region, when just last night I was on the phone with Wong and we worked out a very good deal to get some stuff shipped over for me.  This is why you see economic sanctions, always, before you see military action - it is part of the "consensus" upon which our society has disgustingly set the foundation for its morality.  Our latest example is Iran, and military action is sure to follow unless the bond market does what I am praying it should, and forces the US government to shrivel up and die (disclosure:  I am fully leveraged short in long-term treasuries as of about 2 weeks ago, along with Japanese long bonds, German bunds, and France long term debt).

Bitcoin is something that can usher in world piece as a two edged sword - it removes the monetization possibility that enables war, and it keeps people in the rational world, where they do business together and benefit each other.  Rational people are that much harder to propagandize, and would revolt if their economic success were cut off because of politicking.  It really can be a tool that could re-shape so many paradigms of society.

Sorry for the rant.  My fingers need a break.  Once I get typing about this stuff it's hard to stop...

Although your ideas are possible on paper, I just don't see bitcoin becoming the saving grace that ends all wars. The powers that be will do whatever it takes to preserve that power. If they see bitcoin as a threat to their power then they will shut it down or demonize it. They already have a tight grip on your strings, I don't see them letting go anytime soon.

[Coreadrin_47]

The powers that be are bankrupt and about to subject to the sledge hammer that is the laws of economics.  I'm not all that worried about them - I just want to help people move on as fast as possible and get humanity morally sound and civilized as fast as possible again...