The recurring trouble-cycle of bitcoins, and why I'm here.

[Coreadrin_47]

There is a massive scandal unfolding as we speak which will likely shake bitcoin to its core along the lines of the Mt. Gox hack last year and the fold-up of the online wallets and the recent bitcoinica hack and collapse (along with your money).  

Since nobody else is biting, i will. What do you know that everyone else is missing?

Everybody did already bite.  I was referring to the still-playing-out theft of over $5 million worth of bitcoins by one Pirateat40. 

The effects are still yet to be seen.

[macsga]

The effects are still yet to be seen.

I believe we're gonna witness several pirate40-like cases in the near future. The reason is that while (a man's greediness) > (a man's naiveness) there always will be someone to organize a scam and get money out of it... Bitcoins or Dollars - it's irrelevant. Plus I believe his liquidation is already en route. Otherwise BC should have topped near $20+ now...

[jojo69]

The effects are still yet to be seen.

I believe we're gonna witness several pirate40-like cases in the near future. The reason is that while (a man's greediness) > (a man's naiveness) there always will be someone to organize a scam and get money out of it... Bitcoins or Dollars - it's irrelevant. Plus I believe his liquidation is already en route. Otherwise BC should have topped near $20+ now...

Annnnnnnnd, its gone

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=105818.0

[Seal]

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the european debt crisis as it obviously defines your current open positions.

Also between the two currencies, cash (lets say USD) and bitcoin. What is your opinion on holding either given they hold totally different properties in terms of inflation / deflation.

[macsga]

I'd love to hear your thoughts on the european debt crisis as it obviously defines your current open positions.

Also between the two currencies, cash (lets say USD) and bitcoin. What is your opinion on holding either given they hold totally different properties in terms of inflation / deflation.

As per the EU dept crisis, its nothing more than a political game. Whoever believes otherwise, either he's blind or misinformed. From the point that Mrs Merkel, Mr Draghi or anyone, really; can make a decision to end the crisis (fiat money have the ''ability'' to be fabricated out of thin air) they simply don't do it because they are on a very precise and well sketched schedule. Germans simply don't want ANYONE to mess with their banks, because of the fact that they don't want to reveal their *REAL* debt.

I have wrote elsewhere about the future of BC. From the point of view of its existence, its meant to be a strong player; actually the strongest. Non inflatable, it's doomed to end the exchange difference between $/Eur/GBP and BC to an outrageous limit. I expect the BCs, after the upcoming ASICs invasion, to rise. If you search my posts I've written why. Of course, I may be wrong...

In my opinion, it all makes sense when you compare what the network production/equity is now, with the one that will be, when the Asic miners come in. If you think about it a bit; the current exchange rate is about $12 for 1BC. That means you need about 100BC or $1200 for a BFL, SC and 40GH/s. You need about 100 days, to produce 100BC at a rate of 1BC/day with an average setup that sets you back about $1000 to $1200 (a couple of 5970s, a couple of 6870s, and some 6950s) and gives you 2.5GH/s.

Now, lets project this for a while to after 6 months to 1 year. By that time, lets asume that EVERYONE (who can afford it) will mine with an asic by then. The difficulty should respectively rise to actively produce an average for 40GH/s lets say 1BC/day. This means on a direct comparison that your (future) 40GH/s equals with the (today's) 2.5GH/s. Respectively you will be at the same position minus the initial 100BC you gave to buy the asic, minus the cost of the videocards (if you don't manage to sell them, or want to keep them anyway).

[runeks]

Like I said, most of my position is using LEAPS (long term options, essentially).  they expire worthless if they aren't in the money by the expiration date.  I'm betting on a good hop up in the VIX even if treasuries manage to eke out another rally, which should keep the time premiums on the LEAPS up high enough that it's a very low-risk play.  And even if things are looking a little iffy, you can usually roll things over another year out (when available) for not too much price difference, sometimes you're only looking at a 10-15% rollover cost which gives to another 12 months.

Where do you trade LEAPS options? I have a hard time even finding quotes for them.

I've recently pondered the idea of doing some leveraged gold speculation, and it seems to me that options are the way to go. The longest I can find them (for GLD) is Jan-14 though, I would really like to get something more long term than that. One can get around 5x leverage using a GLD Jan 2014 140.000 call option, but this isn't at the money until GLD rises about 2.3%. Getting around 10x leverage with the same option but with a strike price of 175.000 means GLD would have to rise 12.4% just to be at the money. I'm bullish on gold, but more than 12% in 16 months I'm not confident it can achieve. I wouldn't be that surprised if it did though.

Are you familiar with other ways of leveraged gold trading that might be more advantageous than options? Have you considered leveraged trading in precious metals yourself?

[jojo69]

too late, the bearded one has spoken

[macsga]

too late, the bearded one has spoken

...and said what was already predicted. MORE fiat money... YEEAAAHH!!! :S