Bitcoin price in 10 years.....

[btcxyzzz]

either 0 or ~100k usd

[fearlesscat10]

Probably over 10k at least.

[inca]

Shorts back at 26k. Could easily move up 30 dollars in a sniff.

[spazzdla]

either 0 or ~100k usd

I am thinking this as well.

[Brewins]

20k each, after stabilization after two halvings

[Q7]

As much as I want to see the numbers grow insanely, i just like to remain realistic. Truth is I prefer the numbers to keep at a moderate but more importantly at a stable level where it can sustain itself. Remember we had a bad experience once when it jumped to 1000 and then moving back towards where it is right now

[Patel]

Truth is, Bitcoin has way higher chance to fail than succeed.

[Amph]

Truth is, Bitcoin has way higher chance to fail than succeed.

i see it as the opposite actually, the chance to succeed are far greater than the one to fall, this is due to the progress that bitcoin has done in all this years

[futureofbitcoin]

Truth is, Bitcoin has way higher chance to fail than succeed.

i see it as the opposite actually, the chance to succeed are far greater than the one to fall, this is due to the progress that bitcoin has done in all this years

I would say the chances of success, in the sense that the world uses it like a currency (like usd or rmb or yen right now in their respective countries) is close to 0%. By close, I don't mean 1% or 2%. I mean 0. something.

The chances of success, in the sense that bitcoin or some blockchain survives is probably at least 50%, maybe even 60-70%.

The chances of bitcoin's price going waaaaay up in the case that bitcoin survives, is probably something like 60-70%*.

So I would say the chances of bitcoin succeeding (i.e giving us a return, screw those libertarian ideals) is 60-70% * 60-70% = 36-49%.


*It seems possible for bitcoin's price to remain relatively low (2 or low 3-digits) and only used by a niche group of companies/people for whatever reason say remittances or whatever, and said bitcoin companies are still profitable (for a VC). I am pretty sure VCs aren't betting that bitcoin will be used as a global currency in the future. They must've taken into consideration the outcome that bitcoin survives and brings a certain amount of economic activity without going completely mainstream, and I bet to them this scenario is likely.

[Amph]

Truth is, Bitcoin has way higher chance to fail than succeed.

i see it as the opposite actually, the chance to succeed are far greater than the one to fall, this is due to the progress that bitcoin has done in all this years

I would say the chances of success, in the sense that the world uses it like a currency (like usd or rmb or yen right now in their respective countries) is close to 0%. By close, I don't mean 1% or 2%. I mean 0. something.

The chances of success, in the sense that bitcoin or some blockchain survives is probably at least 50%, maybe even 60-70%.

The chances of bitcoin's price going waaaaay up in the case that bitcoin survives, is probably something like 60-70%*.

So I would say the chances of bitcoin succeeding (i.e giving us a return, screw those libertarian ideals) is 60-70% * 60-70% = 36-49%.


*It seems possible for bitcoin's price to remain relatively low (2 or low 3-digits) and only used by a niche group of companies/people for whatever reason say remittances or whatever, and said bitcoin companies are still profitable (for a VC). I am pretty sure VCs aren't betting that bitcoin will be used as a global currency in the future. They must've taken into consideration the outcome that bitcoin survives and brings a certain amount of economic activity without going completely mainstream, and I bet to them this scenario is likely.

you can't say 0 come one, this is not something so unlikely to happen, even collisions have not 0% chance to happen, and you want to tell me that is more harder for bitcoin to succeed than a collision to happen? bullshit...

i would say that chances are at least 60% succeed and 40% falling, right now, instead the bitcoin technologhy has a 90% chances to happen and i would say 99% to evolve in a more complete tech in the future

[futureofbitcoin]

you can't say 0 come one, this is not something so unlikely to happen, even collisions have not 0% chance to happen, and you want to tell me that is more harder for bitcoin to succeed than a collision to happen? bullshit...

i would say that chances are at least 60% succeed and 40% falling, right now, instead the bitcoin technologhy has a 90% chances to happen and i would say 99% to evolve in a more complete tech in the future

What collision? I have no idea what you're talking about. I said close to 0%, I didn't say exactly 0%. I would say it has a slightly higher chance than winning the US powerball, or euromillions, for example. But you're not gonna convince me to use bitcoin unless I personally have some very big benefit in using it over government money. And I'm a bitcoin "believer". I just don't see people mass switching to bitcoin for a 0.5% saving over credit cards or whatever. Too much hassle. And we're not even at that point yet.

I can see myself using bitcoin if for example my bitcoins' value skyrockets, and by trading my bitcoins directly for a mansion/lambourghini etc it will be somehow beneficial in terms of taxes, since it's an asset or whatever. But if I was a late adapter, when bitcoin is already on the moon, I wouldn't bother with it unless no one accepts fiat anymore. And that will be very hard to achieve when governments enforce their fiat money on companies in their territory

[Amph]

you can't say 0 come one, this is not something so unlikely to happen, even collisions have not 0% chance to happen, and you want to tell me that is more harder for bitcoin to succeed than a collision to happen? bullshit...

i would say that chances are at least 60% succeed and 40% falling, right now, instead the bitcoin technologhy has a 90% chances to happen and i would say 99% to evolve in a more complete tech in the future

What collision? I have no idea what you're talking about. I said close to 0%, I didn't say exactly 0%. I would say it has a slightly higher chance than winning the US powerball, or euromillions, for example. But you're not gonna convince me to use bitcoin unless I personally have some very big benefit in using it over government money. And I'm a bitcoin "believer". I just don't see people mass switching to bitcoin for a 0.5% saving over credit cards or whatever. Too much hassle. And we're not even at that point yet.

I can see myself using bitcoin if for example my bitcoins' value skyrockets, and by trading my bitcoins directly for a mansion/lambourghini etc it will be somehow beneficial in terms of taxes, since it's an asset or whatever. But if I was a late adapter, when bitcoin is already on the moon, I wouldn't bother with it unless no one accepts fiat anymore. And that will be very hard to achieve when governments enforce their fiat money on companies in their territory

collision is when two users generate the same bitcoin address, is basically the thing with last chance to happen in this reality(the only other thing with less chance would be saying that the universe will collapse right now, or something like that..)

you said " I don't mean 1% or 2%. I mean 0. something. ", this is like saying zero to me

bitcoin can still reserve many surprise in future, adding new tech is something that could happen easily, enchanching its protocol, its structure(hard forking to resolve issue like 51% ecc...) if all those issues would be resolved, then i'm confident that bitcoin will skyrocket in every sense, there is a chance that it could become bigger than fiat, maybe not in 10 years maybe will not be bitcoin, but a better technology(based on bitcoin/blochchain), but it could in fact replace fiat in the future

this chance is not so slim as many think, people should stop predict the future of bitcoin based on its price, the price does not reflect exactly its future

[futureofbitcoin]

bitcoin can still reserve many surprise in future, adding new tech is something that could happen easily, enchanching its protocol, its structure(hard forking to resolve issue like 51% ecc...) if all those issues would be resolved, then i'm confident that bitcoin will skyrocket in every sense, there is a chance that it could become bigger than fiat, maybe not in 10 years maybe will not be bitcoin, but a better technology(based on bitcoin/blochchain), but it could in fact replace fiat in the future

this chance is not so slim as many think, people should stop predict the future of bitcoin based on its price, the price does not reflect exactly its future

Nothing to do with the price. Even if bitcoin goes to 10,000,000,000 USD per coin, I know for a fact my grandparents won't use it. They still don't know how to use the computer. Every time I use it to watch a drama or play a game, my grandfather would be like "that's good, computers are very important these days, you need practise to get good at using it".

He thinks it's like driving a car or tennis, something that needs practise. I feel guilty and tell him it's not the case, watching a video online doesn't help make you "good at computers", whatever that means. But he just doesn't believe me. He thinks based on all his years of experience, everything in the world needs practise. I'm just not old enough to understand yet.

They're not the exception. There are many people like them. And there are many more who may have learned how to use a computer since they were younger, but are the same type of people as my grandparents; they will not understand future tech, and choose not to learn it. I suspect bitcoin will be one of these things. The only way to get many people to use bitcoin is if it's the only choice. As long as they can still live life the old way, they won't change.

[D05GTO]

Bet they can use a credit/debit card.   Same thing will happen.. just instead of some fiat it'll be moving Bitcoins.   Also, NFC is pretty neat with Mycelium, want to send to another person just touch phones Too cool.

[mcplums]

I can't imagine there's that many people with more than 50 coins.

I believe you are right, but why do you think this is? I only discovered bitcoin in January, I am not wealthy by any means and I have managed to wangle 75 coins. Maybe I am just significantly more optimistic than the average person?

I predict the price in ten years to be ~$30k, unadjusted for inflation. As this would make bitcoin 10% as valuable as the world's gold. Ultimately I think bitcoin will overtake gold (as it is simply better- has all the advantages but none of the disadvantages) but this will take more than ten years.

[gentlemand]

I can't imagine there's that many people with more than 50 coins.

I believe you are right, but why do you think this is? I only discovered bitcoin in January, I am not wealthy by any means and I have managed to wangle 75 coins. Maybe I am just significantly more optimistic than the average person?

Most of the people in the real world that I know don't have a pot to piss in or have gargantuan debts or outgoings that need constant servicing.

Those that do have a thousand speculative dollars to spend really aren't all that common. Willingness to spend that on BTC is even rarer. Willingness to wait what might be quite a long time to make the potential gains that justify such a risk narrows it down even more.

[coinableS]

I can't imagine there's that many people with more than 50 coins.

I believe you are right, but why do you think this is? I only discovered bitcoin in January, I am not wealthy by any means and I have managed to wangle 75 coins. Maybe I am just significantly more optimistic than the average person?

I predict the price in ten years to be ~$30k, unadjusted for inflation. As this would make bitcoin 10% as valuable as the world's gold. Ultimately I think bitcoin will overtake gold (as it is simply better- has all the advantages but none of the disadvantages) but this will take more than ten years.

That statement is completely contradictory. 75 coins in 4 months (~$18-$19K), you are indeed very wealthy OR you have a nice paying job and live at home with mom n dad with zero expenses.

[BitCoinNutJob]

Bitcoin is the most recognizing coin for beginner web users. Maybe in future will be created new internet 2.0 with different coin integrated in the core. Maybe, maybe... so many possibilities. IMO bitcoin price will skyrocket to 10k usd in 2016. Next bubble and next ATH.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Bitcoin is the most recognizing coin for beginner web users. Maybe in future will be created new internet 2.0 with different coin integrated in the core. Maybe, maybe... so many possibilities. IMO bitcoin price will skyrocket to 10k usd in 2016. Next bubble and next ATH.

Damn well hope so bro.

[tabnloz]

I think this shows that the bear market is not done with yet.

If you think there's a good possibility that coins will be even >$5k in 5 years, then around $220 is extremely cheap. From this you have to ask why aren't people falling over themselves to buy?

Seems like many are waiting for a catalyst (ie Wall St or think we've got a ways lower to head yet.