Your opinion on MNW's motivation to bet 10,000 BTC (one post per forum member)

[finkleshnorts]

This is not a discussion or a troll thread, so please ONLY POST ONCE here (of course, feel free to edit your post). I would like to hear the opinions of other Bitcointalk members on this incredible wager that is unfolding as we speak. What do you think about this situation, and more importantly, why?

I don't know what to think, other than that I trust he will pay if he loses. I will pay if I lose my 65 BTC end of the bet.

This isn't meant to be an inflammatory or a redundant thread (I don't think it is), I am sincerely curious.

Bet thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.0

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[Cluster2k]

It would help if you posted a link to where the bet was made.

EDIT: Thanks for the link

[Killerpotleaf]

pirate has lied to MWN like everyone else, but MWN believes him.

Come on pirate pay everyone back soon this is getting annoying

pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate pirate

hey look an other pirate thread YAYE! 

[VelvetLeaf]

Someone paid a lot of money for ads or the next move, this time up to 10,000 BTC, that's all.

[dust]

Voted "He WILL pay up: He is teaching the forum an expensive lesson", because that is the most likely case (pirate paying back is also a decent possibility)

However,  I think many of the other options are POSSIBLE and bettors should consider these as risks when betting.

[ruski]

You forgot another option - he has more than 10k BTC waiting to be repaid by pirate, if there's a default he will still get paid, if there isn't, he'll take the hit and be happy he has the rest.

[RoloTonyBrownTown]

Both option 1 and option 2 for me.  I'd do the same if I had the coins and the cajones.

[556j]

I thought the chances of him paying were very high until that guy brought up Matthew saying the funds were on casascius gold bar(s) but if you look here http://casascius.uberbills.com/ there's only BTC6,000 unopened. He says funds are his but refuses to provide signed address or picture on the bar(s). Refuses escrow. Seems out of character for someone always calling people out over transparency. Lots of hostility between him and his colleagues (Bitcoin Magazine) over this pirate stuff lately as well.

edit: respecting bob here, don't want to argue or multi-post. Here's backing of hostility claim in Matthew's own words, https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=101751.msg1124864#msg1124864. Or just look at any exchange between him and Vlad these last couple days.

[Matthew N. Wright]

I thought the chances of him paying were very high until that guy brought up Matthew saying the funds were on casascius gold bar(s) but if you look here http://casascius.uberbills.com/ there's only BTC6,000 unopened.

Did anyone say it was on a coin or bar for sure? Did anyone say it wasn't spread across more than one coin or bar? 

He says funds are his but refuses to provide signed address or picture on the bar(s). Refuses escrow. Seems out of character for someone always calling people out over transparency.

So keep calling me out on my lack of transparency. I don't think anyone is listening, but carry on.

Lots of hostility between him and his colleagues (Bitcoin Magazine) over this pirate stuff lately as well.

lolwut?

[Matthew N. Wright]

If you do in fact have 10,000 Bitcoins in Casascius products, you personally account for 1/4 of all the active wealth inside them, as a fellow collector I find this extremely interesting.

If you were a collector, you should know about "Roll your own coins". I do not need to own 10,000 individual 1Ƀ coins or even 2,000 individual 5Ƀ coins. I can own a 0.3155111Ƀ and 9 separate 1,111.11111111Ƀ coins if I wanted to (TL;DR? I load my own coins.) Now, part of the reason I'm being purposely vague is for my privacy and protection. The other is because the conspiracy theories are fascinatingly entertaining for me.

[CoinCidental]

I think MNW thread is a great solution for people who feel destined to lose their pirate deposits + also  the entertainment value is priceless if your life savings are not at stake

ok ,some people are into pirate for 25,000 -100,000+usd and they are most likely screwed if they
bet invested money they couldnt afford and pirate is already in jamaica drinking rum with
no intentions of coming back ....

everyone hassling matthew about his funding or how many caucausius coins he owns should lay off

if you dont trust a few coins of risk in a bet just  keep them in your wallet cause gamblings probably not for you anyway

the only concern i would have is that pirate is funding this bet since hes the only one who can really influence the  outcome   ?

[jl2012]

Maybe MNW is pirate. Therefore he is so sure that he will pay the investors.

[Matthew N. Wright]

Maybe MNW is pirate. Therefore he is so sure that he will pay the investors.

Brilliant! I'm also Zhou Tong, Atlas, and Tom Williams. I'll buy you a house!

[muyuu]

Notoriety. That's him.

[salty]

I don't have a clue what he's up to! He is trying to make some kind of point for sure, otherwise why not just use betsofbitco.in? It's going to be a total mess.

Edit: Oh yeah and popcorn.

[Inedible]

First of all, whatever happened to one post per person?

I believe MNW will pay if he loses.

He might be a lot of things but he doesn't appear to be dishonest.

Does he rub you up the wrong way? Maybe.
Is he vocal about things? Sure.
Is he passionate about his beliefs? Absolutely.

There's little to suggest he'll default and a default would cost him more than 10K of Bitcoins longterm.

You could also consider he may know more than you or I know (this is pure speculation before someone jumps in with some conspiracy theory*). This is what I believe to be his reason for betting but I have no proof of this. The only other reason I can think of is that he believes a person is innocent until proven guilty BUT - this isn't the same thing. This bet is saying that not only is someone innocent until proven guilty but that Pirate will indeed pay out and to be so confident about it would require additional information.

* MNW is Zhong Tong so can afford the 10K as soon as his friend Lord Lucan has his assets unfrozen from the AML investigation. He currently resides in North Korea with Kim Jong Il who is not dead as many believe.

Edited - Provided what I believe to be the motivation

[JoelKatz]

I think either he's crazy, he has a backer, or he has a crazy backer. Or maybe he's hedging. Or maybe he has a backer that's hedging. Or maybe he's a true believer.

Personally, I find it baffling. In any event, assuming he doesn't default if he loses, he can do what he wants with his money. It has certainly made this entire event an order of magnitude more entertaining. For that I thank him.

In any event, I don't think many people have enough facts to make a real judgment as to whether this is Matthew being a genius, Matthew being an idiot, or something in the middle. We'll find out eventually, I think.

Now I'm going to go get some more popcorn.

Update: MNW has denied having a backer.

Update: I think I figured it out! MNW has invested millions in popcorn futures.

[zebedee]

I think either he's crazy, he has a backer, or he has a crazy backer. Or maybe he's hedging. Or maybe he has a backer that's hedging. Or maybe he's a true believer.

Personally, I find it baffling. In any event, assuming he doesn't default if he loses, he can do what he wants with his money. It has certainly made this entire event an order of magnitude more entertaining. For that I thank him.

In any event, I don't think many people have enough facts to make a real judgment as to whether this is Matthew being a genius, Matthew being an idiot, or something in the middle. We'll find out eventually, I think.

Now I'm going to go get some more popcorn.

Update: MNW has denied having a backer.
himhim

I believe everything is just as MNW says, and also that he will cough up if he loses.

Yes he's gone nuts about this but I also think his instinct is right and he's going to end up the winner.  Like him, I have my own reasons, just from observation of what's going on.  I have no clue what pirate was/is doing either.

Pirate is playing the doubters like a highly strung fiddle, and beautifully so.  And MNW's appearance in the game has just incentivized pirate to delay even longer than he might have done otherwise, for pure entertainment value if nothing else.

First rate enertainment.  Though I don't relish nor enjoy the pain of the losers, whoever they are.

I just hope the "community" moves on whatever the outcome towards the goal I believe we all have in common.

[Matthew N. Wright]

Code:

[22:35] <Vinnie_win> Did anyone get paid yet?
[22:36] <Isokivi> pirate did!

[Vladimir]

* MNW is Zhong Tong so can afford the 10K as soon as his friend Lord Lucan has his assets unfrozen from the AML investigation. He currently resides in North Korea with Kim Jong Il who is not dead as many believe.

I've got a better theory.

NMW is Satoshi and he finally found a good use for his wast Bitcoin fortune. He will from now on use this fortune of his to help the community through this scam infested period of time by making that kind of wagers and hedging opportunities to soften the blows while making the community using longer sentences.

i.e. from now on anyone on this forum instead of "this is a scam" must say "this is likely a scam". This will please Satoshi big time.