POLL:How likely do you think it is we see double digits in 2015?

[cbeast]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Substantial thread. I'm hooked! And I voted, too

[Chef Ramsay]

I voted for 0-20% as it is not very likely to see double digits this year.

If there would be a reason for it, then the Bitstamp hack could have triggered double digits. But it didn't.

That's pretty much my thoughts on the subject unless, God forbid, Bitfinex goes the way of the dinosaurs or any similar way. Let's hope that notthing else happens to trigger mayhem.

[stonerider]

I believe there's 100% chance that we will see double digits within 8 months. Bitcoin prices have been steadily and consistently declining for over 16 months. And it will continue the trajectory for the next 8 months or so, without a major breakthroughs like the Winklevoss ETF. With or without the ETF, the next halving will have an effect on the price. By the end of 2016, we will see the btc price rise to $5000. However, there's still more blood ahead in the short to medium time frame.

[RyNinDaCleM]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

I disagree!
Slower exchange of BTC to/from USD does not make more natural price discovery and will actually hinder growth through inefficiency of payment processing. Sure, it may cut down on some panic because it will be absolutely more hassle than it's worth. How is that efficient or natural? Sounds more like forced price discovery to the upside. Low, unimaginable prices will be the true test of Bitcoins' stay power and the loyalty of it's investors.

[cbeast]

All centralized exchanges would shut down if that happened. Then truly decentralized exchanges would thrive. Let's see them skin the sheep.

You must be new here, but your "legendary" status says otherwise. What did Gox, BTC-e and Stamp all do 2 years ago before we broke above $100? Were they losing their asses or did they open up because they knew it was a lucrative business even below $100?
I'd actually wager a guess that they make more money at lower prices because volumes are higher and more people are able to buy more with the same balance. Their actual USD fees wouldn't change much if at all but their BTC fees would double. Win win.

"You can sheer a sheep many times, but skin it only once." In bitcoin's case meaning unregulated central exchanges will be finally exposed as bad for bitcoin because they favor fiat profit taking. Even Wall Street doesn't allow such volatility. Decentralized exchanges will slow down trading and allow natural price discovery without panic trading. Also such low prices are boring and nobody will care anymore. Bitcoin will go back to hobby status until the next development wave creates more disruptive technology that eliminates exchanges entirely.

I disagree!
Slower exchange of BTC to/from USD does not make more natural price discovery and will actually hinder growth through inefficiency of payment processing. Sure, it may cut down on some panic because it will be absolutely more hassle than it's worth. How is that efficient or natural? Sounds more like forced price discovery to the upside. Low, unimaginable prices will be the true test of Bitcoins' stay power and the loyalty of it's investors.

Nothing would hinder trade from reaching exponentially higher levels without the bottlenecks of centralized exchanges. They would simply be free from fraudulent price reporting and fractional reserve market manipulation.

[ensurance982]

Inspired by two equally bold and opposing calls in the Chessnut's 'Critical Level's' thread (85% and 20%), thought it would be interesting to see what anyone else has to say ...
Poll closes in 30 days, unless target hit earlier 

I see the probability at about 20%. Just keep in mind: People back in 2011 were anticipating and predicting a sub $2 coin again, and it never happened. We're now at a serious support level and I wouldn't be surprised if we, at least to some degree, bounce off that.