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Author Topic: Huge ~40% Drop in Network Hashing Power (5/27/2011)  (Read 8567 times)
xenon481
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May 28, 2011, 02:46:46 AM
 #1

The total network hashing power started 5/27/2011 UTC at ~5THash/s and swung to close the day at just over ~3THash/s. With a low around ~2.9THash/s.

That is a nearly 40% drop, day over day, in the first full day after the latest 78% difficulty increase.

Edit: This is based on the graphs from http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ which do not have the same calculation flaw right after a difficulty change that BitcoinCharts does.


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frozen
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May 28, 2011, 02:51:56 AM
 #2

btcguild was down, it seems to be back up now.

xenon481
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May 28, 2011, 02:53:32 AM
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btcguild was down, it seems to be back up now.

BTCGuild alone doesn't account for a ~2THash swing, though.

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May 28, 2011, 02:55:53 AM
 #4

Bitcoinchart crude assumption on total hashrate,  and mainly - psychological  factor of that assumptions on fresh miners did that.
Many is quit from mining.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
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May 28, 2011, 02:58:42 AM
 #5

btcguild was down, it seems to be back up now.

BTCGuild alone doesn't account for a ~2THash swing, though.

No, but also remember that hashing power is calculated based on the current difficulty and the last few blocks. So when there is a dramatic increase in difficulty, this throws off the calculation, which can explain why the hash power shot up above 5Thash and then back down to 3.4Thash. btcguild was doing almost 300Ghash, which would put the network at 3.1Thash, which appears to be where it dropped to.

xenon481
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May 28, 2011, 02:58:45 AM
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Bitcoinchart crude assumption on difficulty, total hashrate, [...]

No, but also remember that hashing power is calculated based on the current difficulty and the last few blocks. So when there is a dramatic increase in difficulty, this throws off the calculation, which can explain why the hash power shot up above 5Thash and then back down to 3.4Thash. btcguild was doing almost 300Ghash, which would put the network at 3.1Thash, which appears to be where it dropped to.

The sipa charts are not based on BitcoinChart's network hashrate calculations which are flawed around the time after a difficulty change.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Edit: The sipa charts do not suffer from the same flawed calculation methodology that bitcoincharts does.

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Dobrodav
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May 28, 2011, 03:04:37 AM
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So? dit that sipa charts show any drop in network hashrate ? Or they just to much flawed around difficulty raises ?

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xenon481
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May 28, 2011, 03:06:43 AM
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So? dit that sipa charts show any drop in network hashrate ? Or they just to much flawed around difficulty raises ?

The sipa graph is the graph that I posted in the OP. It shows a 40% intraday swing. If you look at some of the other graphs on the sipa site, you will see that it those graphs do not have the same difficulty change miscalculation as bitcoincharts.

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EPiSKiNG
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May 28, 2011, 03:18:55 AM
 #9

The total network hashing power started 5/27/2011 UTC at ~5THash/s and swung to close the day at just over ~3THash/s. With a low around ~2.9THash/s.

That is a nearly 40% drop, day over day, in the first full day after the latest 78% difficulty increase.


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May 28, 2011, 04:31:54 AM
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The total network hashing power started 5/27/2011 UTC at ~5THash/s and swung to close the day at just over ~3THash/s. With a low around ~2.9THash/s.

That is a nearly 40% drop, day over day, in the first full day after the latest 78% difficulty increase.

Edit: This is based on the graphs from http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ which do not have the same calculation flaw right after a difficulty change that BitcoinCharts does.


Uploaded at ImageShack.

Is this a joke?  This happens everytime the difficulty increases.... the accuracy of the hash rate calculation is not correct because of the 24hr sample rate.  I would assume someone with a few hundred posts on the forum would know better....

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Sweft
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May 28, 2011, 04:38:13 AM
 #11

The total network hashing power started 5/27/2011 UTC at ~5THash/s and swung to close the day at just over ~3THash/s. With a low around ~2.9THash/s.

That is a nearly 40% drop, day over day, in the first full day after the latest 78% difficulty increase.

Edit: This is based on the graphs from http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ which do not have the same calculation flaw right after a difficulty change that BitcoinCharts does.


Uploaded at ImageShack.

Is this a joke?  This happens everytime the difficulty increases.... the accuracy of the hash rate calculation is not correct because of the 24hr sample rate.  I would assume someone with a few hundred posts on the forum would know better....

Actually the green lone is an 8 hour moving average.
xenon481
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May 28, 2011, 04:42:11 AM
 #12

Is this a joke?  This happens everytime the difficulty increases.... the accuracy of the hash rate calculation is not correct because of the 24hr sample rate.  I would assume someone with a few hundred posts on the forum would know better....

Please read the thread.

Edit: This is based on the graphs from http://bitcoin.sipa.be/ which do not have the same calculation flaw right after a difficulty change that BitcoinCharts does.

The sipa charts are not based on BitcoinChart's network hashrate calculations which are flawed around the time after a difficulty change.

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

Edit: The sipa charts do not suffer from the same flawed calculation methodology that bitcoincharts does.

The sipa graph is the graph that I posted in the OP. It shows a 40% intraday swing. If you look at some of the other graphs on the sipa site, you will see that it those graphs do not have the same difficulty change miscalculation as bitcoincharts.

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SgtSpike
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May 28, 2011, 05:02:22 AM
 #13

This is... GREAT news for those of us still mining!  Hopefully this is a sign of difficulty beginning to level off... I doubt it will stay that low, but I can hope, can't I?  Smiley
timmmay
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May 28, 2011, 05:33:39 AM
 #14

Indeed it is good for those of us in it for the long haul!  I was hoping this would happen

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May 28, 2011, 06:14:57 AM
 #15

probably some miner finally managed to melt his substation/transformer and he is alone in the dark Cheesy

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May 28, 2011, 06:45:55 AM
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deepbit.net is down! that is why.

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May 28, 2011, 07:14:18 AM
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deepbit.net is down! that is why.
It hasn't been for me... been getting normal rates.
jasonk
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May 28, 2011, 07:58:45 AM
 #18

Please read the thread.

I did.  I still don't believe that chart is accurate.  Something is wrong.  Why else would the difficulty level drop a large amount EXACTLY when difficulty level increased?

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nathanrees19
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May 28, 2011, 08:11:55 AM
 #19

Why else would the difficulty level drop a large amount EXACTLY when difficulty level increased?

Assuming you mean why the hashing power would drop, there are dozens of possible explanations.
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May 28, 2011, 08:14:17 AM
 #20

LOL, don't get your hopes up, this happens every time the difficulty increases. Just wait till the next difficulty increase, another 60% or more, I bet.
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