Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official)

[Come-from-Beyond]

Matthew.....what do you know ?

Connecting Matthew knows something and "Bitcoin Project will be making a major announcement in September" I have insane quess:

Satoshi will pop up and announce that Bitcoin was just a joke and 1 BTC will drop to 0.00001 USD, so Matthew could pay the bet with his pocket money...

[organofcorti]

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

[Bitcoin Oz]

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar.  It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

On edit:
DUH.  Forgot difficult won't adjust until the next 2016 block increment so it would be possible.

[Vladimir]

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar.  It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

Theoretically it is possible to mine about 100 800 BTC in one second or less.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Vladimir actually did create an ASIC and is Matthews backer because he can mine 30 000 btc in 3 days.

Liar.  It would take at least 4.167 days (give or take some luck).

Theoretically it is possible to mine about 100 800 BTC in one second or less.

Oh yeah.  Forgot about the difficulty lag.

Ok agenda for this morning:
1) get some coffee.
2) do some real work.

It is gonna be tough.

[LoupGaroux]

http://www.irs.gov/compliance/article/0,,id=180171,00.html

At current US tax rates, assuming pirate is single and a US citizen, the reward for reporting this to the IRS, given that 100% of the gain from this activity is profit, the reward for turning his ass in would be $1,059,345.00 at today's Mt. Gox high exchange.

So, we know Matty is good up to 94,500 btc worth of bets. According to the google spreadsheet he still stands to make over $ 662,000 in net gain IF HE LOSES THE BET. If he wins, and Hell really does freeze over, he only makes $ 397,318.83. Either way, not a bad return for taking the piss on a bunch of anonymous loudmouths like this community.

And that dear friends, is what Machiavellian thinking is all about. Matty wants you to bet against him so that he wins more by losing more.

Matthew, I salute you! Well played.

[bbit]

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors ........ first matthew has to get a whole bunch committed then will slowly leak some payments back to make it feel everyone is getting paid back and claim people lost the bet....my 2 cents....

[TheKoziTwo]

I would like to increase my bet if possible?

50BTC
12QwJRirBBdYqc5WWjyCvUuiHmJMLSrHxv

[Ente]

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors

I think you messed up the order in which the things will happen.. ;-)

Ente

[DigitalHermit]

So Matthew's subsequent doubling down now guarantees that things will end very badly for him.

Either:

1. he loses the bet, and will be forever remembered as the obstinate idiot who doubled down and lost 30KBTC in the face of an explicit confession.  No one will ever again respect him, or trust his judgement on any business matters.
2. Pirate pays, he miraculously wins the bet, in which case he will forever be suspected as a crook who had inside information.
3. he welches on the bet through a technicality or pretending it was a joke, in which case he will be forever known as someone whose word cannot be trusted or taken seriously.

4. Matthew loses the bet, pays 100%, and will be remembered as a guy we can trust to bet against without any escrow.

5. Matthew wins the bet, gives the money back because he's awesome like that.  

6. Matthew loses the bet because Pirate doesn't pay back everyone by Sept. 9th, but then we find out that Matthew was Pirate all along and he pays out to everyone who won his bet (including many investors/lenders who had 'hedged' their Pirate exposure using this bet). All remaining investors who didn't hedge get paid back too anyway. Win! Jokes on us! Thanks Matthew/PirateAt40 - very funny!

[Come-from-Beyond]

My guess is Matthew is going to use his winnings to help pirate pay back his investors

I think you messed up the order in which the things will happen.. ;-)

Ente

Matthew's researches into quantum crypto accidentally led to the discovery of alternate universes. He will simply retire to one of the universes in which Pirate will return all the coins.

I think the remarkable thing here is no so much the discovery of and access to alternate universes, but that he actually managed to find one in which Pirate will pay up. I do so hope it's the universe we call home.

If Matthew is able to travel to an alternate universe, he is for sure able to travel to the past or to the future. So order doesn't really matter.

[bg002h]

There is a reason Matthew didn't accept deposits for the wager...and offered a non-monetary penalty for those who didn't pay...

I think he is teaching us a lesson in greed and stupidity...a lesson sorely needed in this community...it would make a great Bitcoin magazine article as a follow up to the article on the pirate scandal.

[Ente]

There is a reason Matthew didn't accept deposits for the wager...and offered a non-monetary penalty for those who didn't pay...

I think he is teaching us a lesson in greed and stupidity...a lesson sorely needed in this community...it would make a great Bitcoin magazine article as a follow up to the article on the pirate scandal.

Yep. I couldn't come up with any other hypothesis which would make more sense..
But then, I would prefer him to get 10 to 30k BTC out of this to finance some crazy stuff :-)

Ente

[crosby]

I would like to up my amount to 500 BTC

[yochdog]

http://www.irs.gov/compliance/article/0,,id=180171,00.html

At current US tax rates, assuming pirate is single and a US citizen, the reward for reporting this to the IRS, given that 100% of the gain from this activity is profit, the reward for turning his ass in would be $1,059,345.00 at today's Mt. Gox high exchange.

So, we know Matty is good up to 94,500 btc worth of bets. According to the google spreadsheet he still stands to make over $ 662,000 in net gain IF HE LOSES THE BET. If he wins, and Hell really does freeze over, he only makes $ 397,318.83. Either way, not a bad return for taking the piss on a bunch of anonymous loudmouths like this community.

And that dear friends, is what Machiavellian thinking is all about. Matty wants you to bet against him so that he wins more by losing more.

Matthew, I salute you! Well played.

Nice try.

The reward is based on the AMOUNT COLLECTED.  Anyone who thinks Pirate has the full amount of 5,000,000 just waiting to pay to the IRS is smoking Peyote. 

Also, Pirate would only owe the TAX on the 5,000,000, not the entire amount.  So we are talking, AT MOST, about 2,000,000.....which would make the "reward" about 400K. 

And that dear friends, is what googleing a subject and becoming an internet expert on tax policies in 10 seconds is all about.  He wants you to think he is smart, but really has no clue what he is talking about. 

[LoupGaroux]

Actually...

500K btc @ MtGox high $11.21 = $ 5,605,000.00 total profit (his expenses are nothing in this scenario). Base tax rate with AMT adjustment on income over $ 350,000 = 63%, or $ 3,531.150. Maximum bounty on that amount of tax would be 30% or $ 1,059,345. Subtract Matty's expenses in paying off the wagers (35,443 @11.21 = $ 397,316) which nets to $ 662,028, if he loses.

And that is not accounting for any penalty for failing to report, not making his quarterly payments and all the other mischief the IRS would lump onto this case.

Peyote is not smoked, the strychnine analog is scraped off the dried buttons, and they are slowly chewed and swallowed. Alternately it can be brewed as a very astringent tea, although, personally, I find the high to be a great deal more subtle and less colorful when taken in liquid form.

Any other thoughts you would like to share?

[yochdog]

Actually...

500K btc @ MtGox high $11.21 = $ 5,605,000.00 total profit (his expenses are nothing in this scenario). Base tax rate with AMT adjustment on income over $ 350,000 = 63%, or $ 3,531.150. Maximum bounty on that amount of tax would be 30% or $ 1,059,345. Subtract Matty's expenses in paying off the wagers (35,443 @11.21 = $ 397,316) which nets to $ 662,028, if he loses.

And that is not accounting for any penalty for failing to report, not making his quarterly payments and all the other mischief the IRS would lump onto this case.

Peyote is not smoked, the strychnine analog is scraped off the dried buttons, and they are slowly chewed and swallowed. Alternately it can be brewed as a very astringent tea, although, personally, I find the high to be a great deal more subtle and less colorful when taken in liquid form.

Any other thoughts you would like to share?

ROFL. 

You are completely full of shit.  The AMT is designed to keep high income parties from using deductions to lower their taxable income to such a point that they pay an obscenely low marginal rate.  It is a parallel system that runs alongside the normal rate schedule, hence the name ALTERNATIVE Minimum tax.  It is not a fee levied on top of the normally owed tax.  Thus, the maximum AMT tax rate is 28%.  Claiming it is even possible to get to a 63% rate immediately betrays the fact that you know nothing of what you speak. 

Finally, Pirate would never fall into an AMT situation because he would have no deductions to begin with, and the effective rate on the "profits" would be nearly 35%.....thus leading to a higher tax than under AMT. 

Go Google some more. 

[jjiimm_64]

No deductions..  i think not.


electric:
purchase computer;
purchase server:
internet:
etc etc

[yochdog]

No deductions..  i think not.


electric:
purchase computer;
purchase server:
internet:
etc etc

Well, for this example it is really meaningless.