Discussion about 10,000BTC Bet (Official)

[bittenbob]

Why the crap are you still taking bet increases Matthew?

He doesn't plan on paying.

If it wouldn't create an image problem for Bitcoin Magazine, I would start my own bet on whether or not Matthew will pay if he loses. I would of course take the stance that he will pay if he clearly loses.

[1715020531]

1715020531

[1715020531]

1715020531

[1715020531]

1715020531

[jga]

Why the crap are you still taking bet increases Matthew?

He doesn't plan on paying.

If it wouldn't create an image problem for Bitcoin Magazine, I would start my own bet on whether or not Matthew will pay if he loses. I would of course take the stance that he will pay if he clearly loses.

Yeah, but then I'd have to start a bet on whether or not YOU would pay...

[BinaryMage]

Why the crap are you still taking bet increases Matthew?

He doesn't plan on paying.

If it wouldn't create an image problem for Bitcoin Magazine, I would start my own bet on whether or not Matthew will pay if he loses. I would of course take the stance that he will pay if he clearly loses.

Yeah, but then I'd have to start a bet on whether or not YOU would pay...

This could go on for awhile. Want to bet how long?

Imagine the immensely complicated hedging strategies. It could even become cyclical at some point...

[Rassah]

Why the crap are you still taking bet increases Matthew?

He doesn't plan on paying.

If it wouldn't create an image problem for Bitcoin Magazine, I would start my own bet on whether or not Matthew will pay if he loses. I would of course take the stance that he will pay if he clearly loses.

Yeah, but then I'd have to start a bet on whether or not YOU would pay...

This could go on for awhile. Want to bet how long?

Imagine the immensely complicated hedging strategies. It could even become cyclical at some point...

Let's make Wallstreet shit their pants!

[Matthew N. Wright]

Are you an SA troll too? If not, Accepted.

Are you still taking bets? I need to hedge, and I promise I'm no SA troll.

500 BTC
1Encmf24tAUo1rKe69kmTnhhhDpiuWLyPW
Thanks Matthew.

Accepted.

Are you an SA troll too? If not, Accepted.

Please increase mine to 438.8 BTC.

Accepted.

increase to 190 BTC, por favor.

Accepted.

[finkleshnorts]

Forgive my ignorance, but is there an updated spreadsheet around here?

[Matthew N. Wright]

Forgive my ignorance, but is there an updated spreadsheet around here?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c&pli=1#gid=0

[Littleshop]

I am sure it is closed, but if it is open I bet 20 BTC

16irVweTdcKiVxzvY2VZW2JGbYKtb6sWCT

Didn't see a response to this one.

[Matthew N. Wright]

I am sure it is closed, but if it is open I bet 20 BTC

16irVweTdcKiVxzvY2VZW2JGbYKtb6sWCT

Didn't see a response to this one.

Accepted.

[finkleshnorts]

 

just a few bitcoins shy of 40 000.

Counting down the days to Sept. 9th, I don't even know what to expect anymore.

[CoinCidental]

holy shit   

theres almost 40,000 BTC   in the bet now

is there no limits ?

[finkleshnorts]

I don't get it, I just don't get it. That's 400 000 dollars. That's 4 years of wages for an upper-middle class American.

I just don't get it.

[BinaryMage]

Are you an SA troll too? If not, Accepted.

Are you still taking bets? I need to hedge, and I promise I'm no SA troll.

500 BTC
1Encmf24tAUo1rKe69kmTnhhhDpiuWLyPW
Thanks Matthew.

Accepted.

Alright, thank you very much.

[organofcorti]

Ive been here since before the SA invasion, so no....I did get an account there around the cosbyhack, though (and was promptly banned).

I am kind of a dick, but that has nothing to do with SA.

I'm not the biggest fan of the fuckers mate, but it's not very PC to be so openly racist about SA's

S.A. != South Africa, if that's what you were thinking.

[Crypt_Current]

Whoa, is this thing still going on?  I've been in sort of a drugged out haze (I'm sure YOU can understand THAT, Matt, you big drug-head you!) I wanna do 10 BTC; tell me how because I'm lazy.  Please.

[Crypt_Current]

woops, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ajtx05YrHtIydFVHcGxLOExTbnhqajJLZmlSZUNtM3c&pli=1#gid=0, nevermind

[Minor]

Cute.
Did you that by editing your post after the fact or by posting at just the right time with a manually crafted quote string?
I did that once (well timed manually crafted quote), but nobody noticed  : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104987.msg1151688#msg1151688

Anyways, is the betting closed yet?
I made a wager a few days ago, but you never accepted nor rejected it:

I know the bet is officially closed and I don't have the required number of posts, but hey, stranger things have happened:

Code:

5BTC
1JpstgtL3Guoa9WVjpT7YA3r9QfAaqSyyS
"What's 5BTC compared to the sum total of this bet?"

[MrTeal]

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

[organofcorti]

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

Waiting for yjacket's response .....

I wonder if, at this point, it would be cheaper for Matthew to pay all of Pirate's debt himself than pay out the bet.

Are you retarded? Pirate's liabilities are around 500k bitcoins if you believe him. Remember, its easier to imagine making 7% on 10000 bitcoins than 100000.

[JoelKatz]

42.5kBTC now.

It's funny that this is getting up to be a significant percentage of the estimated Pirate debt at the time of collapse. Pirate being Matthew's backer would be quite a funny twist; if Pirate has enough BTC left and could afford to buy back enough of his debt at a really distressed rate, he could still make out handsomely on this without being as open to getting in trouble with the law.

I don't think so. I'm not sure, but I don't think so. Here's why:

For Matthew to win his bet, Pirate has to settle with everyone. For people who insist on 100% payout, the only way Pirate can settle is to pay 100%. Because some people think Matthew knows something they don't, they're much less likely to take a low settlement. This is especially true for people who took Matthew's bet to hedge. If they take a partial payment, they may lose their bet with Matthew. If they refuse, they are guaranteed either 100% payment or they'll win their bet.

So Matthew's bet almost certainly made it much more expensive for Pirate to settle. I suspect by at least 40,000 BTC. (Weirdly, this means that if Matthew loses, most of that money may wind up indirectly going to Pirate since Pirate benefits from the higher value of his debt because he can sell it for more.)