Amph
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April 21, 2015, 07:31:29 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now
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Jamphone
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April 21, 2015, 10:17:45 AM |
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-0.76 to -1.00 please
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mavericklm
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April 21, 2015, 10:28:28 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time! hopefully not! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) the sea is very calm at the moment....
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Kexkey
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April 21, 2015, 10:47:38 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time! hopefully not! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) the sea is very calm at the moment.... Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping. That would, I guess, slow the network down...
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notlist3d
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April 21, 2015, 10:53:03 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time! hopefully not! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) the sea is very calm at the moment.... Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping. That would, I guess, slow the network down... We should have seen them on network I would guess. I would think they did a burn in test at least with them. There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.
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Kexkey
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Smile while thinking.
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April 21, 2015, 10:56:59 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time! hopefully not! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) the sea is very calm at the moment.... Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping. That would, I guess, slow the network down... We should have seen them on network I would guess. I would think they did a burn in test at least with them. There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s. I'd guess so, they say on their site they've been testing them... Sometimes in dusty areas. That's why they may look like they're used even if they're "brand new". ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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notlist3d
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April 21, 2015, 11:01:23 AM |
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You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.
well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time! hopefully not! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) the sea is very calm at the moment.... Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping. That would, I guess, slow the network down... We should have seen them on network I would guess. I would think they did a burn in test at least with them. There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s. I'd guess so, they say on their site they've been testing them... Sometimes in dusty areas. That's why they may look like they're used even if they're "brand new". ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Yea I'm not sure how long burn in test was, their warning makes it sound longer then the spike of hash on antpool. You can see in pic we had a day antpool gained 10 PH and then it went away: http://s100.photobucket.com/user/notlist3d/media/antpool/antpool_zpssmf9atth.png.html?sort=3&o=0
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philipma1957 (OP)
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'The right to privacy matters'
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April 21, 2015, 11:07:45 AM |
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okay 26 blocks to go we are at (-1.24%) https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty: 47,610,564,513 Estimated Next Difficulty: 47,020,531,643 (-1.24%) Adjust time: After 1741 Blocks, About 12.0 days Hashrate(?): 361,576,356 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.9 minutes 3 blocks: 29.6 minutes 6 blocks: 59.3 minutes Updated: 6:55 (3.1 minutes ago) http://btc.blockr.io/chartshas 145 on the 19th and 155 on the 20th real time numbers right now we are +1 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/Blocks 353075 Total BTC 14.077M Difficulty 47610564513 Estimated 48105915101 in 1741 blks Network total 408589.921 Thash/s Blocks/hour 7.19 / 500 s We are at + 1% on bitcoincharts So the trend is plus as of right now not neg. On nice hash we still have numbers like 0.0146 and around 5ph Which means 5ph could switch off the alt and make us go to over 2 or 3 % We also have the bitmaintech factor they are selling s4+ which will leave them and ship to buyers. so maybe 2ph. If I had to really guess instead of my -1.11% I would pick +3.33% which is 3.26 to 3.50%
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mavericklm
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April 21, 2015, 11:13:14 AM Last edit: April 21, 2015, 11:38:21 AM by mavericklm |
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............. We should have seen them on network I would guess. I would think they did a burn in test at least with them. There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.
the s4+ might have been already on the network for weeks! dust will tell us! and they said it officially too!!! Please note: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The product is new from the factory, but due to testing periods and the unstable air quality around the factory, there may be dust on the machine when you receive it.
maybe the spike to >60ph was s6...
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 21, 2015, 11:31:06 AM Last edit: April 21, 2015, 01:39:04 PM by philipma1957 |
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............. We should have seen them on network I would guess. I would think they did a burn in test at least with them. There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.
the s4+ might have been already on the network for weeks! dust will tell us! and they said officially too!!! Please note: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. The product is new from the factory, but due to testing periods and the unstable air quality around the factory, there may be dust on the machine when you receive it.
maybe the spike to >60ph was s6... We know they turned the s4+ off and replaced with s6. They got smart and realized the 60ph spike was too greedy and backed it down via underclock. So they are close to the same hash rate but using much less power. Any sane $ savvy company knows that they do not need to grow the network much if they simply cut power bill in ½ thats works very well. I still say btc is very fragile right now flooding the network with hash like what happened to alt coins last year would be very bad for BTC. Okay we are now at 1726 so in ten blocks picks start. Here is the list of early birds: -1.01 to 1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick -0.76 to 1.00% Jamphone +1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm +1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean +2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia Amph you mention +6 as a pick I do not see it. Now with the spots picked early I am inclined to say they count don't do it next time and just no more picks until block 1716. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty (-1.15%) block 1726 http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ (+1.06%) block 1726 So we are right now in a -1 to +1 spot for predictions from the above sites. Personally I think we go to +2.22 to +3.33
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davejh
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April 21, 2015, 02:52:21 PM |
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Seems to be Tuesday in CA, so this time I'll try +2.51 to +2.75 ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Many thanks for running this!
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 21, 2015, 02:59:49 PM |
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and 1 more early bird as we are at block 1719 and block 1716 is the correct block to be at.
Here is the list of early birds:
-1.01 to 1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick
-0.76 to 1.00% Jamphone
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm +1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean +2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.51 to 2.75% davejh
and all the early birds picked what I would consider to be good numbers. as current number on bitcoincharts is about +1%
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Quickseller
Copper Member
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April 21, 2015, 03:26:54 PM |
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I am going with +5.01% to 5.25% this time around. The short term trend seems to be that the hash rate has spiked, although it may be due to good luck Maybe the "good luck" we saw a few weeks ago at ant pool was actually bitmain testing the S4+ in mass
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ezeminer
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Lie down. Have a cookie
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April 21, 2015, 03:29:30 PM |
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I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77% And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif)
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tlhIlwI
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April 21, 2015, 03:32:14 PM |
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I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77% And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Ack... you just slid into my usual spot! I'll take +3.51-3.75 instead.
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notlist3d
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April 21, 2015, 03:33:07 PM |
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I would like + 2.26 through 2.50 please.
Thanks for running it philipma
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edonkey
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April 21, 2015, 03:44:44 PM |
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I'm back to asking our oldest cat, who says +3.26 to +3.50.
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Was I helpful? BTC: 3G1Ubof5u8K9iJkM8We2f3amYZgGVdvpHr
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philipma1957 (OP)
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April 21, 2015, 03:46:26 PM |
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I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77% And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) thank you for waiting. I will post a more complete list in a few hours.
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mavericklm
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April 21, 2015, 05:03:02 PM |
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i think we have same option ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) put me above at +1,26 to +1,50% thank you!
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HerbPean
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April 21, 2015, 05:18:18 PM |
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Sorry, didn't know it was 300 block min AND Tuesday ;-)
Thanks Phil !
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