Newest Diff thread April 19th to May 1st-Closed for picks!!

[Amph]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

[Jamphone]

-0.76 to -1.00 please

[mavericklm]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not!

the sea is very calm at the moment....

[Kexkey]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not!

the sea is very calm at the moment....

Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping.  That would, I guess, slow the network down...

[notlist3d]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not!

the sea is very calm at the moment....

Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping.  That would, I guess, slow the network down...

We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

[Kexkey]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not!

the sea is very calm at the moment....

Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping.  That would, I guess, slow the network down...

We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

I'd guess so, they say on their site they've been testing them... Sometimes in dusty areas.  That's why they may look like they're used even if they're "brand new". 

[notlist3d]

You guys are too early, it's not 300 blocks yet, still about 60 to go.

well i'm out of the game anyway, with my +6, i doubt it will increase so much, we are at negative now

only +6%? we, the small guys, we don't know but... it can also be +15% this time!
hopefully not!

the sea is very calm at the moment....

Well in less than a week, Bitmain will unplug their S4+'s to start shipping.  That would, I guess, slow the network down...

We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

I'd guess so, they say on their site they've been testing them... Sometimes in dusty areas.  That's why they may look like they're used even if they're "brand new". 

Yea I'm not sure how long burn in test was, their warning makes it sound longer then the spike of hash on antpool.  You can see in pic we had a day antpool gained 10 PH and then it went away:

http://s100.photobucket.com/user/notlist3d/media/antpool/antpool_zpssmf9atth.png.html?sort=3&o=0

[philipma1957]

okay 26 blocks to go

we are at (-1.24%)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   47,610,564,513
Estimated Next Difficulty:   47,020,531,643 (-1.24%)
Adjust time:   After 1741 Blocks, About 12.0 days
Hashrate(?):   361,576,356 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.3 minutes
Updated:   6:55 (3.1 minutes ago)


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

has 145 on the 19th

and 155 on the 20th   real  time numbers right now we are +1


http://www.bitcoincharts.com/



Blocks   353075
Total BTC   14.077M
 
Difficulty   47610564513
Estimated   48105915101 in 1741 blks
 
Network total   408589.921 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.19 / 500 s

We are  at + 1% on bitcoincharts


So the trend is plus as of right now not neg.

On nice hash we still have numbers like 0.0146 and around 5ph

Which means 5ph could switch off the alt and make us go to over 2 or 3 %

We also have the bitmaintech factor they are selling s4+ which will leave them and ship to buyers. so  maybe  2ph.

If I had to really guess instead of my -1.11%  I would pick +3.33% which is 3.26 to 3.50%

[mavericklm]

.............
We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

the s4+ might have been already on the network for weeks! dust will tell us! and they said it officially too!!!

Please note:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. The product is new from the factory, but due to testing periods and the unstable air quality around the factory, there may be dust on the machine when you receive it.

maybe the spike to >60ph was s6...

[philipma1957]

.............
We should have seen them on network I would guess.  I would think they did a burn in test at least with them.  There was a jump one day on antpool last week, I'm curious if it happened to be the S4+'s.

the s4+ might have been already on the network for weeks! dust will tell us! and they said officially too!!!

Please note:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5. The product is new from the factory, but due to testing periods and the unstable air quality around the factory, there may be dust on the machine when you receive it.

maybe the spike to >60ph was s6...

We know they turned the s4+ off and replaced with s6.  They got smart and realized the 60ph spike was too greedy and backed it down via underclock. So they are close to the same hash rate but using much less power.

Any sane $ savvy company knows that they do not need to grow the network much if they simply cut power bill in ½ thats works very well.

I still say btc is very fragile right now flooding the network with hash  like what happened to alt coins last year would be very bad for BTC.


Okay we are now at 1726 so in ten blocks picks start.

Here is the list of early birds:

-1.01 to  1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick


-0.76 to  1.00% Jamphone


+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia


Amph you mention +6 as a pick I do not see it.

Now with the spots picked early  I am inclined to say they count don't do it next time and just no more picks   until  block 1716.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  (-1.15%) block 1726

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/  (+1.06%) block 1726


So we are right now in a -1 to +1 spot    for predictions from the above  sites.

Personally I think we go to +2.22  to +3.33

[davejh]

Seems to be Tuesday in CA, so this time I'll try +2.51 to +2.75 

Many thanks for running this!

[philipma1957]

and 1 more early bird  as we are at block 1719 and block 1716 is the correct block to be at.


Here is the list of early birds:

-1.01 to  1.25% philipma1957 my standard auto pick


-0.76 to  1.00% Jamphone


+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia

+2.51 to 2.75% davejh


and all the early birds picked  what I would consider to be good numbers. as current number on bitcoincharts is about +1%

[Quickseller]

I am going with +5.01% to 5.25% this time around. The short term trend seems to be that the hash rate has spiked, although it may be due to good luckMaybe the "good luck" we saw a few weeks ago at ant pool was actually bitmain testing the S4+ in mass

[ezeminer]

I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77%

And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago

[tlhIlwI]

I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77%

And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago

Ack... you just slid into my usual spot!  I'll take +3.51-3.75 instead.

[notlist3d]

I would like  + 2.26 through 2.50 please.  

Thanks for running it  philipma

[edonkey]

I'm back to asking our oldest cat, who says +3.26 to +3.50.

[philipma1957]

I'm going for +3.76-4.00% with a guess at 3.77%

And also the 300th block was hit two minutes ago

thank you for waiting.  I will post a more complete list in a few hours.

[mavericklm]

i think we have same option

put me above at +1,26 to +1,50%

thank you!

[HerbPean]

Sorry, didn't know it was 300 block min AND Tuesday ;-)

Thanks Phil !