15?
I'm looking for offers 45 BTC or greater to entertain. 45 BTC is completely justifiable and is arguably a low-ball figure.
Selling price = Cost of Jalapeno + BTC generated during
x number of days (where x = the number of days between the current date and the date when my order placement was secured).
It's been approximately 3 months since I ordered my Jalapeno. That's about 90 days. So, you're looking at the cost of the Jalapeno, plus the amount of BTC that you would generate in about 90 days with that Jalapeno.
That makes absolutely no sense. Why would you look at the number of days between your preorder and now?
Let's say you order a Jalapeno today and it arrives in February. You spent 15 BTC, and now you're trying to earn back your 15 BTC. How long will this take you? Just to throw out a number, let's say it takes 3 more months to generate the remaining 15 BTC. So, by May you will have a 100% ROI.
Now, let's say that you spent 60 BTC and purchased my Jalapeno and it arrives to you in November (3 month difference). Let's say that by February you've generated 45 BTC with it. This means you have 15 BTC remaining to generate to recoup your investment. Now, again let's say it takes 3 more months to generate the remaining 15 BTC. Again, by May you will have a 100% ROI.
In both cases, the buyer makes out the same. In each case, the buyer achieves 100% ROI at the same point in time.
The whole idea is to set a value on a first-day ASIC such that the time at which 100% ROI is achieved will be the same as an ASIC ordered today. That's why the number of days between orders matters. If you exclude the difference in BTC generated over those 3 months, 100% ROI will be achieved faster the earlier the product is received. It is not hard to imagine that 100% ROI for a first-day ASIC will be achieved 5 times faster than for an ASIC ordered today.
I see, you're running on the assumption that a 90 day difference between now and when you ordered will translate into a 90 difference between when you receive your unit and when one ordered today will arrive. I don't think that's likely at all; at this point BFL has indicated that they plan to have the preorders cleared out by the end of the year, and it's looking increasingly likely you won't receive your Jalapeno until at best midway through November, most likely towards the end of November. It's more likely that a Jalapeno ordered now will arrive maybe 45 days after yours, not 90.
Let's say in a good case you get your Jalapeno on November 18th. We'll be around block 208656 by then, assuming 10 minutes a block. Assume that the upward trend lately flattens off, and the network hashrate stays around the 25TH/s it is now. You start hashing right when you receive it, and so do 75TH/s worth of other units in the BFL first batch. It would take two days to reach the next diff adjustment at block 209664 and you'd make 2.6BTC in those two days.
You'd make another .45BTC in the 1.4 days before the block reward halving. You'd make another 2.0 before the next diff adjustment at block 211680 around Dec 4th.
Sometime around there, ~42 TH/s of bASIC will be coming online. Say they don't hit until after the adjustment so you still get to mine with the 100TH/s difficulty. In the next 10 days before difficulty is readjusted, you'd earn 1.12BTC.
Let's then say no other hashing power come in and you mine for 14 days on a 142TH/s network between the 14th and 28th. You'd make 1.6BTC.
Say on the 29th another 100TH/s of BFL product comes online as they finish clearing out their preorders now that they have their inhouse line running. The net is 80TH/s, as 20TH/s of GPU miners finally throw in the towel. You'd make another 1BTC between then and the next diff adjustment on Jan 7th.
Nothing is then added onto the network until January 21, when the Jalapeno ordered today arrives.
Between the 7th and the 21st, you'd earn another 1BTC, bringing your total earned between November 18th and January 21st to 10.3BTC. That's pretty damn good for a 2 month span for a device that costs $150.
That's assuming
1) People get their BFL ASIC on Nov 18th
2) BFL only ships 75TH/s in the first batch.
3) BFL doesn't ship another ~100TH/s until the end of December to clear their preorders
4) A Jalapeno ordered now won't ship until Jan 21st
5) Avalon won't come along in January.
Right now a Jalapeno will set you back 16BTC with shipping. There's almost no way that you would earn 30BTC between when you get yours and when someone ordering now will. You might earn 10, if you're lucky.
