Accepting Pirate bets

[Raize]

Could be a ploy to get people to sell coin but not actually put up the USD.

[c0in$]

Goat approached me with 3:1 odds, I replied saying I would consider his offer against others I was getting as I have limited funds to place on this bet and I'd like to take the best offer.  I told Goat I would consider his offer and reply as to whether or not I would allocate my funds to a contract with him.

This is no ploy.  Simply a bet, feel free to read the bet contract already initiated. 

c0in$

[c0in$]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0

Link to Garr's escrow page with previous contract.  I will be accepting bets with odds of 2:7 or better at this time.  As the date of termination draws closer I will have to revise down my estimation of the probability of a repayment and adjust odds accordingly (odds the day before termination day of repayment would be slim to none).  I feel these odds are generous given how unlikely repayment is and that pirate debt is selling at less than 20% and usually much closer to 12%.  I will commit $500 towards a 2:7 bet.

[c0in$]

I was contacted by garr with terms. Garr said he represented op and was asked to find takers for the bet. My acceptance of the offer was rejected and i have no current offer.

The odds as stated in the OP are the current offer and you can accept it should you choose.  As the termination date of the bet draws nearer the odds must be adjusted as I don't have unlimited money to bet on unlikely events.

[c0in$]

Odds Updated to 3.5:1. I will no longer accept bets if we get to within a week of deadline and still no signs of repayment.

Escrow information and terms can be found here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=104494.0

[c0in$]

I was contacted by garr with terms. Garr said he represented op and was asked to find takers for the bet. My acceptance of the offer was rejected and i have no current offer.

Goat, again I am willing to offer you this bet.  Since there was some misunderstanding I will be willing to give you 2:7 odds.  I know you wish to bet against my maximum so I will offer $1000;$3500.  Let me know and I will try to work this out with you.  I am just looking to make honest bets at a fair market rate and think 3.5:1 odds is an appropriate and fair offer given how improbable this is and hardly anyone would want my side of the bet other than matthew but he might just be loony.

[OneEyed]

Think pirate is a scam?

I am accepting Escrowed bets on Pirate's debt repayment by Sep 10, 2012.  Bets will be USD denominated and occur with Gox USD through trustworthy escrow.  Given that Pirate debt is trading between 10-20% right now I will accept reasonable odds, in the neighborhood of 1:3.5 (I would wager 100 against your 350).  Contact me if you are interested.

A USD denominated bet with such odds is quite an interesting hedge. If Pirate pays, the OP bets that the coins will lose value in USD because people will sell them. If Pirate doesn't pay, the OP thinks that the USD value will go up.

Possible scenario:

• OP buys 30 coins today for $330 ($11/BTC).
• OP bets $100 against JohnDoe (who bets $350 - 1:3.5 odds)
• If Pirate pays, OP receives $350 from the bet. Profits: $20 + 30 BTC (those BTC may be worth nothing in case of a panic sell move, but can sit in a wallet waiting for the USD/BTC to go up in case it does).
• If Pirate does not pay and BTC goes up to $14.5 (not necessarily immediately), OP loses $100 for the bet and later sells his 30 BTC for $435 or more. Profits: starting at $5.

The only case in this scenario in which OP will not benefit from this bet is if Pirate does not pay and the BTC/USD never goes as high as $14.5. So this is essentially a long position on BTC, hedged against a panic sell in the unlikely event that Pirate pays everyone and USD/BTC does not recover its initial value. One can see it as a $100 insurance against a massive USD/BTC drop.

[ErebusBat]

Garr has not contacted me and things have changed. I'm not so sure this will work out. When Garr is around let me talk to him. I don't know how long i can wait.

What has changed?

[c0in$]

Okay well as soon as garr gets online and sends you an address I will send him gox usd

[Garr255]

Current status of bet: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9542654/btc/BTCST_bets/Goat%20v%20c0in%24.txt

[ErebusBat]

Current status of bet: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9542654/btc/BTCST_bets/Goat%20v%20c0in%24.txt

Goat v c0in$

Terms:
For c0in$ to win the bet pirateat40 must pay back all of the principal, plus interest until anouncement of closing from his BTCST operation [17 August 2012] no later than (2 weeks after bet starts). (excluding bitlane)

For Goat to win the bet pirateat40 must NOT pay back all of the principal, plus interest until anouncement of closing from his BTCST operation [17 August 2012] no later than (2 weeks after bet starts).

Garr255 will be the final ruler of the outcome of the bet.

Wagers:
Goat: $3500 worth of BTC to be sold on Gox - RECEIVED
c0in$: $1000 USD by GoxUSD code - NOT RECEIVED

Witnessing

Thanks Garr

Witnessed

[muyuu]

Does "interest" count until the current date or until Pirate went ahead and said he froze the interest?

[eroxors]

I take it this bet is no longer valid? I have $$ to put up if it is... same terms as Goat.

[Garr255]

Just an update... c0in$ has paid me his wager. All bets are viewable here as always: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/9542654/btc/BTCST_bets/index.html

As for future bets, you'll have to wait fro a response from c0in$

[oldschool]

At least this was an escrowed bet and not a matt special....

[Garr255]

Goat has won his bet. $4500 converted to BTC and sent upon his request.
Tx:
dde3fa904dfe09f6505cb69028095443a13d44cf7720592ca006862a50f6f915