Bold statement: Next target is low ~$700s (Awaiting scream of laughter)

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.

In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. The idea being that "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:



Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:

        

Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?

History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.

[ssmc2]

I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.

In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:



Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:

        

Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?

History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.

Looking forward to the new $1163 

[ThatDGuy]

My body is ready

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Looking forward to the new $1163  

$1163 was the new $32, but if we go up 100x from the new $10 like we did before, if we assume $700 is the new $10, the next bubble peak would be in the $70,000s. Not a bad place to take some profits.

[gentlemand]

Looking forward to the new $1163 

$1163 was the new $32, but if we go up 100x from the new $10 like we did before, that would be in the $70,000s. Not a bad place to take some profits.

Hmm. I think I can live with that.

Whatever rise there may be will surely take a totally different form from previous ones. There won't be a Gox. There is now leverage all over the place. There are more exchanges than ever.

It'll be fascinating to see how it compares.

[yayayo]

Looking forward to the new $1163  

$1163 was the new $32, but if we go up 100x from the new $10 like we did before, if we assume $700 is the new $10, the next bubble peak would be in the $70,000s. Not a bad place to take some profits.

By profit taking you mean purchasing fiat money? Why would you want to do that? Converting good money into fiat money?

If Bitcoin reaches $70k (at today's values) I think the quantity of goods and services you'll be able to purchase directly with Bitcoin will be at least 10x-20x times bigger than today.
That said, I think the next bubble will not be at $70k, but more likely in the $5k-$10k-region, because we live in a finite world and there's much more capital needed to support such a movement, so relative growth will slow down at higher prices.

ya.ya.yo!

[bassclef]

Whatever rise there may be will surely take a totally different form from previous ones. There won't be a Gox. There is now leverage all over the place. There are more exchanges than ever.

It'll be fascinating to see how it compares.

"The market is an artist, not a computer. It has a repertoire of basic behavior patterns that it subtly modifies, combines and springs unexpectedly on its audience. A trading market is an entity with a mind of its own."

--Richard Wyckoff

[Wary]

I can sort of see the logic. If the bottom is already in at $150, then it doesn't make sense to spend the next year before the halving right above the bottom. The bottom should have been overdone, meaning that actual steady-state consolidation price is more unemotional, so a few times higher.

In 2011 the bottom was $2, and there was half a year of hovering around $5, then another half year of oscillating around $10 or low teens. $750 is 5x the bottom at $150, as $10 was 5x the bottom at $2. The idea being that "$150 is the new $2. $700 is the new $10." Here's the chart for the two years 2011 and 2012:



Here's the past two years (up to today) compressed to show the similar pattern to the above:

        

Same timespan of two years in both charts, but the second one is compressed about 2.5x. Some almost uncanny similarities in the shape of that downtrend, no?

History never quite repeats, and the downtrend this time has continued about three times as long, so who knows. But OP is suggesting a kind of rhyme ("history never repeats, but it rhymes") that makes some sense to me.

If the history repeats at 150/2 scale and 3 times slower, we should expect 1.5 year around $350 and another 1.5 around $750. No next ATH untill 2018. A lot of patience will we need.    

[Alley]

This could easily happen may 18th when xbt provider launches on NASDAQ Stockholm.  There purchasing bitcoin to cover each share sold.   Only need a few investment firms to want to dip there toe in bitcoin and that will translate to millions of dollars.

[Q7]

It will be more interesting if you can accompany that with chart and some analysis rather than telling it's from your gut feeling. As I always believe things unimaginable is possible in bitcoin and even when you least expect it to happen, it will surprises you. Right now, looking at the trading volume and order book, I don't think the current condition will change for now.

[Erdogan]

The importance of positive news could come with a huge time delay, like a year or two, and could be the reason the good news doesn't seem to do anything.

I agree with the OP, but sentiment is really hard to estimate.

[randy8777]

it makes no sense. if it was this easy plenty of people would have made major profits. glad we don't know what will happen. just make sure you bought in already at current prices.

[3x2]

i think BTC will stay between 200$ to 400$ in next 6 to 10 months.

[1Referee]

i think BTC will stay between 200$ to 400$ in next 6 to 10 months.

Same here. It would be a big surprise if it would go above $400 this year. I'm already happy to see stable $300 level.

[Chef Ramsay]

It all depends on when the tools for wall street come out, the Winks should have theirs out before the end of the year. Assuming there's ample demand as in, some of these large brokerages and hedge funds looking to gain some exposure, then people are gonna freak out where they see the price rise to while the masses of the world scramble to grab some for themselves. Perfect storm is a coming.

[goxed]

I think crypto is in the right place at the right time. Actually there's a lot of talk about a massive economic policy failure starting 2015/September which will reduce confidence in major fiat currencies namely euro and usd, probably leading to huge fluctuations because of government adjustments, like that happened with chf earlier this year. If that  indeed happens, a bulk of  the long-term parked money is going to move into crypto / btc while the world governments sort out their fiats.

[d5000]

The prediction is interesting and not too un-realistic.

For me, a key moment will be when the price goes above the last high of just above 300$. If it holds this value, it's possible that sentiment changes rapidly to bullish. It may not be enough momentum to surpass $1200, but $700 is definitely possible.

[Wary]

Your prediction is strange. I think there are two possibilities for the next few months:

Nothing happens at all (+/-20%) or it grows exponentially surpassing $100,000

There is 14 million bitcoins, so the cap should be 1.4 trillion $. At rally times one dollar invested rises the cap to about 10$. So for the price to reach 100K, new 140 billion USD must flow into the bitcoin system. Why can it happen?

[peeveepee]

Another random person making prediction. You have anything to back it up?

[1Referee]

I don't think we'll even see the price going over $600 in entire 2016 let alone 'low $700'. My target for 2016 is around ~$500 which is a fair estimate.