May 3rd to May 14th diff thread. Picks are now closed!

[philipma1957]

Congrats to zebedee winner with +0.01 to 0.25%  a carryover so 0.20 btc is due.

the actual number was +0.07%  a lot of fast late blocks and he closed in for the win with a rush.

Self modded due to seriouscoin.

New contest is not yet confirmed by suchmoon.


last thread is open as suchmoon and zebedee have not arranged prize payment as of now.

link to the thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1031765.0;all

I am leaving this for revisions and changes. Suchmoon and I will do a new   promo

OFFICIAL RULES FOR THE MOST ACCURATE GUESS REWARD


are here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=964922.msg10550525#msg10550525




Rule changes are no pick switches.  One pick and  stick with the pick.



Picking only between blocks 301 and 1000-------------------

.

 The close out deadline  is flexible  as the site can be down so we will make sure everyone has some grace time.

[philipma1957]

results were:






2.26 to -2.50% Bittings
-2.01 to -2.25% RoadStress
-1.76 to -2.00% Lboss
-1.51 to -1.75% RubyPaul1
-1.26 to -1.50% gallery2000
-1.01 to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76 to  -1.00% Jamphone
-0.50 to -0.75%  eretron
-0.26 to -0.50% shapeshift
-0.01 to -0.25% Amph
0.00       EMIF

+0.01 to 0.25% zebedee


+0.26 to 0.50% crazyivan
+0.51 to 0.75% hellfrozenow
+0.76 to 1.00% coinits
+1.01 to 1.25% mavericklm
+1.26 to 1.50% SunnyIgor
+1.51 to 1.75% Korbman
+1.76 to 2.00% HerbPean
+2.01 to 2.25% armedmilitia
+2.26 to 2.50% notlist3d

 Difficulty History

Date             Difficulty                 Change   Hash Rate


May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s





Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
Apr 05 2014   6,119,726,089   22.23%   43,806,706 GH/s
Mar 24 2014   5,006,860,589   17.80%   35,840,504 GH/s
Mar 13 2014   4,250,217,920   11.39%   30,424,245 GH/s
Feb 28 2014   3,815,723,799   21.92%   27,314,015 GH/s
Feb 17 2014   3,129,573,175   19.39%   22,402,357 GH/s
Feb 05 2014   2,621,404,453   19.49%   18,764,744 GH/s
Jan 24 2014   2,193,847,870   22.59%   15,704,175 GH/s
Jan 13 2014   1,789,546,951   26.16%   12,810,076 GH/s
Jan 02 2014   1,418,481,395   20.12%   10,153,885 GH/s
Dec 21 2013   1,180,923,195   30.01%   8,453,378 GH/s
Dec 10 2013   908,350,862   28.41%   6,502,229 GH/s
Nov 29 2013   707,408,283   16.07%   5,063,826 GH/s
Nov 17 2013   609,482,680   19.29%   4,362,847 GH/s
Nov 05 2013   510,929,738   30.70%   3,657,378 GH/s
Oct 26 2013   390,928,788   46.02%   2,798,377 GH/s
Oct 16 2013   267,731,249   41.45%   1,916,495 GH/s
Oct 06 2013   189,281,249   27.19%   1,354,928 GH/s
Sep 25 2013   148,819,200   32.13%   1,065,289 GH/s
Sep 14 2013   112,628,549   29.56%   806,227 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Early numbers are okay:


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty        (-1.53%)



https://www.coinbase.com    240 usd

More trivia

last 12 adjustments :

6 Negative 6 Positive


http://btc.blockr.io/charts

140 blocks made  on 5/3/2015    about   59 in this adjustment.   sooooo we are a bit behind pace  -1 or so.


only 59 blocks do not give a pick  until 300 blocks. no changing your pick. Comments are now open.  No picks yet.

[notlist3d]

Pretty amazing on how slow hash rate is moving at this point.

Seems like were at a pretty slow move on hashrate.

[philipma1957]

Pretty amazing on how slow hash rate is moving at this point.

Seems like were at a pretty slow move on hashrate.

yeah lots of time ,

but boy we all seem to be threading water big miners and little miners.

 No new gear just level prices.  MMmmmm not bad if your power is 8 cents or lower

[armedmilitia]

Hey, as long as the diff stays exactly the same, all of us currently mining (at even a tiny profit) will hit 100% ROI.

Wheeeee. I'm happy with the current state of things 

[notlist3d]

Morning bitwisdom:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    47,643,398,018
Estimated Next Difficulty:    46,981,273,423 (-1.39%)
Adjust time:    After 1912 Blocks, About 13.4 days

Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.

[jonnybravo0311]

Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.

I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.

[ezeminer]

Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.

I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.

Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.

[jonnybravo0311]

Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.

I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.

Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.

Exactly... last year if you even thought about posting a difficulty increase of less than 10% every 12 days people wrote you off as insane.  Now it's May, 2015 and the difficulty has gone up about 7B since November (from about 40B to about 47B).  My gear remains mining .

[philipma1957]

Biggest thing we actually have passed 240 on btc.  Were at 241 with a little upward trend.

I'm hoping the trend continues.  My S3s are well beyond my initial expected lifespan for them at this point.  When I first got them I figured I'd be lucky to make it until December of last year before they became unprofitable.

Luckily there are not huge difficulty jumps anymore. And so far for the last 6 months there has been a total of 20% increase, which is awesome for us.

Exactly... last year if you even thought about posting a difficulty increase of less than 10% every 12 days people wrote you off as insane.  Now it's May, 2015 and the difficulty has gone up about 7B since November (from about 40B to about 47B).  My gear remains mining .

With my summer power price kicking in.  I am down to a pair os s-3's batch 1 mining since July 23-26th 2014.

This pair of miners have done both positive   btc roi and usd roi .  I have them in a very low power cost spot.  2.4 cents a kwatt

If growth is 3% and price is 240 usd these will earn money into the year 2017

[jeffy1021]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

[notlist3d]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

This would be our hope.   If it is true we get a little extra mining time out of current gen.

On BTC price it slid down to 238 so the 240+ party is already over.

[philipma1957]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I have done a lot of research on this.  My guess is 2% over the next 6 months.

A big price jump makes that go up more.

I think a new gen with 0.2 watts  would increase diff  to 7% the first 6 adjustments or  3 months  after it comes out.

I think a new gen with 0.35 watts would increase diff to  4% the first 6 adjustments or 3 months after it comes out.

I guess 2% since I do not see new gear anytime soon.

[Mikestang]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.

[philipma1957]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.

This could be true.

At least for the next 4 or 5 jumps as the summer heat is coming and down-clocking gear will be necessary for many miners.

[alh]

This last difficulty adjust could have easily been a negative .07% if the blocks had fallen slight differently. A stable difficulty is great, a stagnant BTC price of $230 may well tend to keep it there a while longer.  Even if you are manufacturer of the ASIC gear, doubling your farm hashrate doesn't really help much, because a couple of weeks later a positive difficulty adjustment just washes away any gain you had in your hashrate. And unless you installed more efficient gear, you doubled your electric bill, however large or small that may be.

It's possible that the mining community at large has figured out that an ASIC "Arms Race" doesn't really help anyone for very long, unless the BTC price also increases.

[notlist3d]

Until next gen hardware comes out, we probably would only expect nominal difficulty increases right?

I'm expecting nominal difficulty decreases, actually.

This could be true.

At least for the next 4 or 5 jumps as the summer heat is coming and down-clocking gear will be necessary for many miners.

This could really benefit us miners if we keep getting such low jumps.  I would agree summer heat will be a issue for some miners.   It's coming fast on the heat.

I guess we will see but I'm hoping for low jumps, negative would be a bonus.

[philipma1957]

This last difficulty adjust could have easily been a negative .07% if the blocks had fallen slight differently. A stable difficulty is great, a stagnant BTC price of $230 may well tend to keep it there a while longer.  Even if you are manufacturer of the ASIC gear, doubling your farm hashrate doesn't really help much, because a couple of weeks later a positive difficulty adjustment just washes away any gain you had in your hashrate. And unless you installed more efficient gear, you doubled your electric bill, however large or small that may be.

It's possible that the mining community at large has figured out that an ASIC "Arms Race" doesn't really help anyone for very long, unless the BTC price also increases.

Yeah if your farm has 1000 s-5's  standing pat works if you power is low cost.

Lets say the s-7 comes out in sept 2015.  and lets say it does .35 watts  slowly replacing those s-5's and keep your hash exactly the same works since your power drops quite a bit.

In the mature Asic market this is a sensible money move

ie 1ph burning 520,000 kwatts  vs 1 ph burning 350,000   means my profit goes up the price of 170,000 kwatts

[mavericklm]

+1.896666667% is the adjustment for each jump of this year!