Bitpredict Update Thread

[kiba]

I will post daily developer log of what I done for bitpredict, a bitcoin prediction market site. However, today I am too tired to work after returning home from college. I might or might not got anything done tonight. We'll see.

[kiba]

After realizing how late it is, I updated to rails 3 and restart from scratch the bitpredict project directory. A disappointing start, but the key is progress.

If you can move, you will eventually get to your destination no matter how long it take. So, my goal is to alway be somewhere further along at the end of the day rather than be stuck at the beginning of the day.

[kiba]

I got a bit further along today. Finally got the test server from the rails directory running. My goal is to make much more progress than that tommorow. I also attempted to set up my netbook for development. It was an utter fail.

[kiba]

More progress: figured out how to generate static pages in rails.

[kiba]

Yesterday, I didn't do anything. This is bad.

Today, I only modified the home template. I think I'll do something with a bit more substance tomorrow. Perhaps, a generic registration system will be in order.

[Babylon]

Yay!  Bitcoin prediction market.  I am glad to see this coming together.  I wish you luck, let me know if there is anything I can do to help.

[kiba]

Yay!  Bitcoin prediction market.  I am glad to see this coming together.  I wish you luck, let me know if there is anything I can do to help.

Ugh. I missed a day. No excuses there.

[kiba]

Very tired person from college. All I did today was beginning the use of an authentication framework and generating a user model.

[kiba]

I created a register link, fix spelling, and figure out how to do routing. Today is the most substantial progress we see.

Let see what happen tonight.

[kiba]

I did another session of coding tonight. I created an empty template page for new user, wrote unit testing code, and generally making sure that you can't actually have empty username.

[S3052]

sorry if this question was asked already:
what will the   
bitcoin prediction market
actually predict?

[kiba]

sorry if this question was asked already:
what will the   
bitcoin prediction market
actually predict?

People put up a bet on things that they will think will happen. For example, who will get elected in 2012 US presidental election. Will the republican take over congress? The marketshare of the search engines. It will be mostly be something specific and easy to verify.

[kiba]

Well, I was busy the whole day with another web application, a MVP if you will. I was close to completion so I decided to pour all my effort into getting it online. With any luck, I will integrate bitcoin as a payment option.

As for this project, it will resume as soon as I fixes things that went really wrong and reveal the MVP for feedbacks.

[S3052]

sorry if this question was asked already:
what will the   
bitcoin prediction market
actually predict?

People put up a bet on things that they will think will happen. For example, who will get elected in 2012 US presidental election. Will the republican take over congress? The marketshare of the search engines. It will be mostly be something specific and easy to verify.

that would be fantastic. I am ready to join!

[kiba]

sorry if this question was asked already:
what will the    
bitcoin prediction market
actually predict?

People put up a bet on things that they will think will happen. For example, who will get elected in 2012 US presidental election. Will the republican take over congress? The marketshare of the search engines. It will be mostly be something specific and easy to verify.

that would be fantastic. I am ready to join!

Well, some bets will be excluded on what the site operator and me thinks it will encourage dangerous and unethical events to happen. Examples are not up for discussion.

[chaord]

Well, some bets will be excluded on what the site operator and me thinks it will encourage dangerous and unethical events to happen. Examples are not up for discussion.

While I generally agree that it is (and should be) the site operator's discretion as to which bets should be taken, I wonder if the rules could be very simple.  The simplest rule I can come up with is that "all bet outcomes must be exogenous with respect to participants."  I think if you simply focus on verifying that topics are truly exogenous, all the unethical or dangerous things will fall by the wayside.  If any participants have a say in the outcome, the bet is not exogenous, and therefore should be banned.

Allowing anonymity while enforcing exogenous bets is the biggest challenge IMO.

[Babylon]

sorry if this question was asked already:
what will the    
bitcoin prediction market
actually predict?

People put up a bet on things that they will think will happen. For example, who will get elected in 2012 US presidental election. Will the republican take over congress? The marketshare of the search engines. It will be mostly be something specific and easy to verify.

that would be fantastic. I am ready to join!

Well, some bets will be excluded on what the site operator and me thinks it will encourage dangerous and unethical events to happen. Examples are not up for discussion.

I am curious if your sites design will be open source.  Certain dangerous or possibly unethical predictions were one of the advantages I saw to bitcoin, although, obviously, you would not want to be the site admin responsible for allowing such predictions to be made.

[TTBit]

If a user can create his own prediction, how are predictions settled?

I start a prediction "The difficulty level for generating bitcoins will be equal to or greater than 3500.00 on 12/31/2010 11:59:59pm ET"

and the predictions total on 1/1/2011:

Yes: 500 btc
no: 347 btc

the difficulty level settles at 3700, who clicks on the 'yes' button and distributes the coins?

[nelisky]

I am curious if your sites design will be open source.  Certain dangerous or possibly unethical predictions were one of the advantages I saw to bitcoin, although, obviously, you would not want to be the site admin responsible for allowing such predictions to be made.

Not wanting to step on anyone's toes here, but I like the unethical possibility. Not that I want to start any unethical event prediction, but I do want to be able to do so, if I choose to

So, tip-toeing to avoid hurting anyone, this is a really small project, the design is way more challenging than the actual logic, so if there's more interest in this for sociological reasons than just me and Babylon, I can prep something up.

[S3052]

i just registered on TAABL have tried to get a ticket and placed a bet.
then for some reason cancelled the ticket and now my 1 bitcoin is completely gone in my account.
what happened?
how can i get my BTC back.. and bet again?