Bitpredict Update Thread

[kiba]

Would it be enough to allow bitcoin to include conditional transaction to create a prediction market? The conditional transactions then would consist of a normal transaction with a condition attached to it. The condition could be a prediction, like "silver will hit XX/dollar on AA/BB/CCCC". The nodes would have to verify the outcome of the condition, to know whether the coins are transfered or not. So if you re-spend the conditionally spend coins, you may have to add a large fee to motivate nodes to verify the outcome of the condition.

Such is a complicated thing for the proof of concept.

[1714113768]

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[1714113768]

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[bitanarchy]

Would it be enough to allow bitcoin to include conditional transaction to create a prediction market? The conditional transactions then would consist of a normal transaction with a condition attached to it. The condition could be a prediction, like "silver will hit XX/dollar on AA/BB/CCCC". The nodes would have to verify the outcome of the condition, to know whether the coins are transfered or not. So if you re-spend the conditionally spend coins, you may have to add a large fee to motivate nodes to verify the outcome of the condition.

Such is a complicated thing for the proof of concept.

Yes, but you know that governments are fiercely opposed to unregulated prediction markets, even more than just private currencies I suspect. So, don't you think, a prediction market must be P2P to avoid being shut down.

[kiba]

Yes, but you know that governments are fiercely opposed to unregulated prediction markets, even more than just private currencies I suspect. So, don't you think, a prediction market must be P2P to avoid being shut down.

The site itself is open source. Shutting down my site doesn't mean much of anything if people can set up their own exchange.

[bitanarchy]

Yes, but you know that governments are fiercely opposed to unregulated prediction markets, even more than just private currencies I suspect. So, don't you think, a prediction market must be P2P to avoid being shut down.

The site itself is open source. Shutting down my site doesn't mean much of anything if people can set up their own exchange.

I have not seen your site. Is it ready jet?
Anyway, if large sums are bet on a prediction, then your site will store those sums until the outcome is clear. There are a few problems:
1. The government can confiscate the sums of bitcoins that you temporarily store.
2. The outcome of the prediction is determined by your website. After that the bitcoins are payed-out, and this cannot be reversed, even if the outcome turns out to be the other way around. For example, there may be a bet called "Bin Laden brought down the twin towers". If bets are put in a block chain, and the truth on the prediction turns out the be different then the transaction will be reversed by consensus of the nodes.

[kiba]

I have not seen your site. Is it ready jet?

No. If it was...then I would already announce it.

Anyway, if large sums are bet on a prediction, then your site will store those sums until the outcome is clear. There are a few problems:
1. The government can confiscate the sums of bitcoins that you temporarily store.

My site is essentially a bank. I don't store balances for outcomes. This is to facilitate a liquid market. Store at your own risk.

2. The outcome of the prediction is determined by your website. After that the bitcoins are payed-out, and this cannot be reversed, even if the outcome turns out to be the other way around. For example, there may be a bet called "Bin Laden brought down the twin towers". If bets are put in a block chain, and the truth on the prediction turns out the be different then the transaction will be reversed by consensus of the nodes.

My site is just an intermediary. Outcome are decided by judges elected by people on each side.

[Anonymous]

Would it be enough to allow bitcoin to include conditional transaction to create a prediction market? The conditional transactions then would consist of a normal transaction with a condition attached to it. The condition could be a prediction, like "silver will hit XX/dollar on AA/BB/CCCC". The nodes would have to verify the outcome of the condition, to know whether the coins are transfered or not. So if you re-spend the conditionally spend coins, you may have to add a large fee to motivate nodes to verify the outcome of the condition.

Such is a complicated thing for the proof of concept.

Yes, but you know that governments are fiercely opposed to unregulated prediction markets, even more than just private currencies I suspect. So, don't you think, a prediction market must be P2P to avoid being shut down.

Thats because of assassination politics.

 

The beauracrats are mortally scared of there being ramifications to their actions. For instance if one shot a child or a pet while raiding a non violent person's house which resulted in a million bitcoins predicting their death.....

[kiba]

Assassination politics is rather a dangerous game to play...Death by majority.

It would be one of those things excluded as a prediction in bitpredict.

[bitanarchy]

The beauracrats are mortally scared of there being ramifications to their actions. For instance if one shot a child or a pet while raiding a non violent person's house which resulted in a million bitcoins predicting their death.....

So it would not be a good idea of embedding a prediction market into bitcoin right now, because that would result in a fierce reaction against it by politicians.
But I wonder whether assassination markets are really a problem. first of all nodes can block predictions they think are immoral.

On the other hand, some assassination bets could be quite just from a libertarian stand point. It would be similar to paying a DRO for protection. Paying a DRO for immoral actions would just result in another state, and would not be in the interest of the individual. But then again we do not live in a rational society which is required for this.

Anyway, the decentralized P2P prediction market will come to being, sooner or later... bitcoin is the first step.

[kiba]

Death is a dangerous weapon that should only really be used as self-defense.(How would you like it to be AIMED at you because of a person's grudge or a bloodthirsty mob?)

Otherwise, I do not trust human beings' judgement on the use of the death.

[bitanarchy]

Death is a dangerous weapon that should only really be used as self-defense.(How would you like it to be AIMED at you because of a person's grudge or a bloodthirsty mob?)

Otherwise, I do not trust human beings' judgement on the use of the death.

I do agree with that. But the bloodthirsty mob is what we have right now. It is also called democracy. The very fact that we have this system and people are actively supporting it tells you that you cannot trust the judgment of the people.

[Anonymous]

Death is a dangerous weapon that should only really be used as self-defense.(How would you like it to be AIMED at you because of a person's grudge or a bloodthirsty mob?)

Otherwise, I do not trust human beings' judgement on the use of the death.

 I merely state that the childs parents would be justified in placing a prediction 

[kiba]

 I merely state that the childs parents would be justified in placing a prediction 

Just because it fit libertarian ethical theory doesn't mean it's a good idea to put up a prediction.

Assassination politics open up a whole can of worm. It's not going to be used against just evildoers, but people who are rich, people who made several individuals mad, or just being successful.

[bitanarchy]

I merely state that the childs parents would be justified in placing a prediction 

Placing such a prediction after the fact is not the best thing to do. Better is it to buy the following prediction to protect the child:
"The parent will receive X bitcoin when the child is killed". Of course the seller of this prediction would want to know who the buyer is :-) Typically an insurance/protection company will want to sell this type of predictions.

[em3rgentOrdr]

 I merely state that the childs parents would be justified in placing a prediction 

Just because it fit libertarian ethical theory doesn't mean it's a good idea to put up a prediction.

Assassination politics open up a whole can of worm. It's not going to be used against just evildoers, but people who are rich, people who made several individuals mad, or just being successful.

I don't like assassination politics either, although I must reluctantly accept that such markets may arise in a libertarian society, as they are permitted by libertarian ethics.  However, I do not condone their use.  I will ostracize people who use assassination markets in an unjustified manner to go against people that I feel do not deserve to be assassinated.

I like to think of libertarianism as a legal theory.  Not necessarily a moral theory, since I do not necessarily believe that all actions that are permitted by the NAP are "ok".

[bitanarchy]

I like to think of libertarianism as a legal theory.  Not necessarily a moral theory, since I do not necessarily believe that all actions that are permitted by the NAP are "ok".

Conditionally paying someone if a death happens, is not violence a priori. Since it could be an insurance company that is selling this contract. On the other hand, if the person you sold this contract to makes the kill to fulfill the condition, you can argue that he loses the status of a moral agent, since he violated the NAP. In this case the you may argue the responsibility for the kill forwards to the one that sold the contract.

[kiba]

Oh dear, how my motivation lose with no deadline to meet.

[kiba]

I begun working on it again after some hiatus.

[Babylon]

I begun working on it again after some hiatus.

Yay!

I really wanna bet on interesting things, and bitcoinsportsbook hasn't opened any wagers on the value of bitcoins again yet.

[FreeMoney]

Assassination politics is rather a dangerous game to play...Death by majority.

It would be one of those things excluded as a prediction in bitpredict.

What? How would it take a majority. I bet $2000 that Councilman Joe will not die on May 15th. Someone takes the other side, maybe they make it happen. Sure people can pool bets, 10 or 100 or 1000 people could get a rather bet together, but this has nothing to do with majority. The reverse is true too, 200 million people who won't put up one cent can't affect a thing on a prediction market.

The unsolved problem I see for this kind of market is the who determines time or fact of death? Dexter would have trouble getting paid since he knows how to get rid of the bodies.

Interestingly, intrade.com can already be used like this. How creepy would it be to be an absolute lock to win and see your intrade odds drop hard on large volume? Haha, not that dying always persuades sheeple not to vote for you. But if they phrased it "So and so to be sworn into such and such office on DATE" that would do it. Maybe they do, I haven't read them all.

I'm pretty mixed on the whole thing, if it was widely used it would be a game changer though. Or maybe not, we probably don't even know the names and faces of the people who really should be removed.

[kiba]

I pretty up one of the error display thing.

Next time, I will work on the bitcoin accounting for bitpredict. I need a strong foundation to work with, after all.