NEW info. Everyone is lying about ther ASIC project

[super3]

I think that by time BFL actually releases the ASICs the reward for mining will have dropped so much that it won't ever be mathematically worth it.

all depends on the value of the btc's

It really does, but they have been pretty stable at ~$10-12 for the last couple of months. While no one can predict the long term exchange rate of Bitcoins, the longer they come to out the less the mining reward will be either way.

[1715073455]

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[nixu]

Well, we will see. In any case if you invested in ASIC you should have done so with more than one vendor in order to mitigate risk.

[king_pin]

Well, we will see. In any case if you invested in ASIC you should have done so with more than one vendor in order to mitigate risk.

I could not disagree with that more!
You should invest in ASIC only after you have seen one delivered to someone somewhere.

4 months ago, when the first pre-orders started, if u invested 10 000$ in BTC or in GPUs, now (if you sell the GPUs) you would probably have 15-20 000$ depending on how smart and lucky you are. Although this is a very very rough estimate, how is investing in a ASIC 4 months ago a better than this?

Now if we assume that ASICs come today and difficulty rises 2-3 times. If you buy ASIC after you will miss the most profitable period, but that would be roughly compensated from the 50-100% income of mining or just playing on the BTC market or doing something else with your money for 4 months. So lets say that its relatively the same.

But what if ASICS don't come out, or come out in 2-3 months.  

[rchapoteau]

Personally I figure what the hell I might as well jump in for a Jalepeno.  $150 isn't that bad as far as an investment goes.  They seem to be pretty good with refunds so I wouldn't call it a scam.  They may not be completely transparent with what is going on, but I believe they will start shipping before the end of the year. 

[super3]

Well, we will see. In any case if you invested in ASIC you should have done so with more than one vendor in order to mitigate risk.

I could not disagree with that more!
You should invest in ASIC only after you have seen one delivered to someone somewhere.

4 months ago, when the first pre-orders started, if u invested 10 000$ in BTC or in GPUs, now (if you sell the GPUs) you would probably have 15-20 000$ depending on how smart and lucky you are. Although this is a very very rough estimate, how is investing in a ASIC 4 months ago a better than this?

Now if we assume that ASICs come today and difficulty rises 2-3 times. If you buy ASIC after you will miss the most profitable period, but that would be roughly compensated from the 50-100% income of mining or just playing on the BTC market or doing something else with your money for 4 months. So lets say that its relatively the same.

But what if ASICS don't come out, or come out in 2-3 months.  

You make a good point there. The problem with the ASICs is that they are vaporware(this is hardware. is that the right term?) right now. As long as Bob down the street has one, then its just a supply problem, and you could get yours to in a reasonable timeframe.

[firefop]

Well, we will see. In any case if you invested in ASIC you should have done so with more than one vendor in order to mitigate risk.

I absolutely agree, no matter who ships first, you want to be in that first shipment... ROI over a few days or a week or 3...

We'll still have to see who ships when - but I have a feeling it's going to be bfl.

[IbuyGuinnesswithBTC]

There's a reason that I only bought the jalapeno. $150 isn't much to lose if they're corrupt.

[Frizz23]

So BFL cancels one delivery date after the other, because they are supposedly only waiting for parts (mainly the ASICs themselves!) - yet they are still fiddling around with the final design of their casing?!?!

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/459-new-single-sc-pics.html
BFL_Josh: "I was taking some pics for some promotional stuff tonight, so I thought I'd share some of the pics. This is the new, taller case to accomodate some better airflow, ..."

So BFL cancels one delivery date after the other, because they are supposedly only waiting for parts (mainly the ASICs themselves!) - yet they are still fiddling around with the design of their casing?!?!

One could expect that they by now have tons of casings ready just waiting for the PCB to be plugged in - yet they don't even have that!

[SgtSpike]

So BFL cancels one delivery date after the other, because they are supposedly only waiting for parts (mainly the ASICs themselves!) - yet they are still fiddling around with the final design of their casing?!?!

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/bfl-forum-miscellaneous/459-new-single-sc-pics.html
BFL_Josh: "I was taking some pics for some promotional stuff tonight, so I thought I'd share some of the pics. This is the new, taller case to accomodate some better airflow, ..."

So BFL cancels one delivery date after the other, because they are supposedly only waiting for parts (mainly the ASICs themselves!) - yet they are still fiddling around with the design of their casing?!?!

One could expect that they by now have tons of casings ready just waiting for the PCB to be plugged in - yet they don't even have that!

1) You have not proven that the previous case had inadequate airflow. Just because airflow has been improved does not mean that previous airflow was inadequate for use at the speeds advertised.
2) It is entirely possible that they decided to revise their cases after announcing a speed increase (and thus estimated heat dissipation requirements).
3) They very well may have tons of casings ready for the PCB.  Maybe these taller cases are for a future revision?
4) Perhaps the cases are made locally and have a short leadtime.  They aren't anything more difficult than simple punches out of sheet metal - they could be made in bulk very quickly.

[rchapoteau]

I've had to deal with fabrication before, and I can tell you that several of my designs wound up changing at the 11th hour before production.

I don't know what will go into the assembly of this unit, but hopefully they can turn everything around fairly quickly once they have the chips in hand, which for them is the hard part.

I wish they had all of the parts on hand now and ready to ship, but I'll be patient.  I'm confident that they will eventually ship . . . eventually.

[Frizz23]

I've had to deal with fabrication before, and I can tell you that several of my designs wound up changing at the 11th hour before production.

For BFL it just seems that almost all parts are changed at the 11th hour. Their ASICs even in the 13th hour. Which lets the chance of getting a working product approach zero.

[Inaba]

A new case rev takes us between 2 and 5 days to go from design document to product in hand.  It's not really an issue.

[Frizz23]

A new case rev takes us between 2 and 5 days to go from design document to product in hand.  It's not really an issue.

So I assume on the day the little Chinese leprechauns bring you your ASICs all the other problems, redesigns, difficulties in delivery, etc. are solved mysteriously and the "magic" (aka everything is working together nicely) happens. Somehow. And one day later your have a working product that you can ship. Yes?

[destruct]

So I've been reading the BFL forums for a while now and got to thinking about past products and honestly the only -mistake- BFL has made here is requiring 100% of the money before they are remotely ready to ship.

But many video games (GTA V and Duke Nukem) for example blow past the expected release dates.. Tesla cars same thing.. endless list of collectibles do the same.

Honestly, every company has unforeseen delays just seems you guys are more impatient then the rest of the world purchasing other products with delays.

[Frizz23]

But many video games (GTA V and Duke Nukem) for example blow past the expected release dates.. Tesla cars same thing.. endless list of collectibles do the same.

Or as Inaba would say: "OK BFL sucks. But bASIC/Tom sucks even more".
Or like Hitler would have said: "OK I suck. But Stalin sucks even more".

Two wrongs doesn't make one right ...

[destruct]

But many video games (GTA V and Duke Nukem) for example blow past the expected release dates.. Tesla cars same thing.. endless list of collectibles do the same.

Or as Inaba would say: "OK BFL sucks. But bASIC/Tom sucks even more".
Or like Hitler would have said: "OK I suck. But Stalin sucks even more".

Two wrongs doesn't make one right ...

Well of course not. But to call them liars and flame them doesn't seem to be helpful either.

But our current society of "I want it TODAY or else I'm going to rage to try and get something free" isn't helping anyone and that time could be better spent.. you know.. going outside, learning something new, maybe help an old lady across the street.. almost anything else you could possibly think of.

They get the point that customers are upset and are probably upset themselves at all the delays caused by the suppliers. Which if you watch shows such as Shark Tank / Dragon's Den you will understand more about the troubles ALL businesses come into.

[BFL_Theo]

Under some Mexican lady's name whaaa!? lmfao this a joke.

BFL doesn't want there rival  company's to get the best of there information and what they have had worked and paid for just like any other company, Sony, Microsoft Etc. as small as the information it might be but anything that might be used against BFL, BFL would rather not take a chance and Disclose the information, if you don't like it, take your money some where else, new product lines come out every week from big name company's and you don't see people going nuts over little information that is not given. and honestly there trying to build there company up, would it kill anyone to keep a little information away from public? i don't think so.

[kjj]

Or as Inaba would say: "OK BFL sucks. But bASIC/Tom sucks even more".
Or like Hitler would have said: "OK I suck. But Stalin sucks even more".

I'm invoking Godwin's Law.  This debate is over, please lock the thread.

[rchapoteau]

A new case rev takes us between 2 and 5 days to go from design document to product in hand.  It's not really an issue.

So I assume on the day the little Chinese leprechauns bring you your ASICs all the other problems, redesigns, difficulties in delivery, etc. are solved mysteriously and the "magic" (aka everything is working together nicely) happens. Somehow. And one day later your have a working product that you can ship. Yes?

Of anything, this is what I think worries me the most.  There are usually working samples made before final fabrication to make sure you are getting what you want.  I would imagine that they should have at least 1 working prototype right now that they should be showcasing even if it isn't a final design with final performance.  A ton of things can go wrong once they finally have all of the pieces together and ready for assembly . . . then again that might be why we are delayed up till this point now.  For the most part we haven't heard a real story as to the exact nature of the delay.

[Frizz23]

There are usually working samples made before final fabrication to make sure you are getting what you want.  I would imagine that they should have at least 1 working prototype right now ...

They don't have a working prototype. They already admitted that.