$GBTC Speculation, Information, and Cogitation

[Hunyadi]

I think XBT Provider stole the steam of this one.

[bad trader]

The GBTC market closed at the all time low at 27.15 dollars per share (~280 dollars per bitcoin) with volume of 4950 shares (less than 490 bitcoins).



Meanwhile, the volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~949 bitcoins.

[JorgeStolfi]

BIT shares (GBTC) daily trading summary:

           !   OTX !   OTX !   FRT !    FRT !    FRT !        FRT !       FRT !     
Date       !  PRLO !  PRHI !  PRLO !   PRHI !   VSHR !       VUSD !      PRAV ! OBS 
-----------+-------+-------+-------+--------+--------+------------+-----------+----------
2015-05-04 | 37.98 | 42.00 |   .   | 200.00 |    765 |        .   |    .      | (*0)(*1)
2015-05-05 | 55.00 | 94.86 | 50.00 | 175.00 |    435 |   32198.00 |  74.01839 | (*0)
2015-05-06 |   .   |   .   | 65.00 |  68.00 |    125 |    8268.50 |  66.14800 | (*0)
2015-05-07 | 40.00 | 66.00 | 40.00 |  86.00 |   2844 |  163651.00 |  57.54255 |     
2015-05-08 | 49.00 | 59.00 | 49.00 |  59.00 |  14807 |  750019.70 |  50.65305 |     

2015-05-11 | 50.00 | 57.95 | 49.50 |  57.95 |   2756 |  143247.34 |  51.97654 |     
2015-05-12 | 49.00 | 50.01 | 49.00 |  52.25 |   2286 |  113299.25 |  49.56223 |     
2015-05-13 | 49.00 | 49.00 | 49.00 |  50.00 |    327 |   16113.10 |  49.27554 |     
2015-05-14 | 44.00 | 49.00 | 44.00 |  49.95 |  20894 | 1004923.74 |  48.09628 | (*2)
2015-05-15 | 38.00 | 45.00 | 38.00 |  45.00 |   2320 |   97444.35 |  42.00188 |     

2015-05-18 | 27.15 | 38.00 | 27.15 |  38.00 |   4950 |  158115.83 |  31.94259 |     
2015-05-19 | 27.90 | 29.50 | 27.89 |  29.90 |   4308 |  122327.92 |  28.39552 |  

"OTX" data from the GBTC quote page at OTCQX.
"FRT" data from the Freerealtime site, except those flagged (*0) and (*1) (see below).

PRLO = Lowest price in specified day.

PRHI = Highest price in the specified day.

VSHR = Number of shares traded in day.

VUSD = Trade volume in USD (sum over all trades of num of shares times price per share).

PRAV = Average price in day = VUSD/VSHR.

OBSERVATIONS:

(*0) The "FRT" price range for this entry was obtained from this post.

(*1) For 2015-05-04, the values of PRLO, VSHR, VUSD, and PRAV could not
be determined; the value of VSHR was taken from the OTCQX page.

(*2) The summary pages at OTCQX and FreeRealTime.com say 19894, but
adding the FreeRealTimes list of trades we get 20894 (1000 more). The
VSHR value given is the latter. There were 2 trades near the end of the
day; perhaps one was undoing the other?

[bad trader]

The volume of GBTC was less than 422 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~300 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~547 bitcoins today.

[bad trader]

The volume of GBTC was less than 476 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~326 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~455 bitcoins today.

[bad trader]

The volume of GBTC was less than 282 bitcoins today. The market closed at ~331 dollars per bitcoin.



The volume of Bitcoin Tracker One was ~681 bitcoins today.

[kingama]

Price of GBTC continues to slide toward Bitcoin proper on low volume. I couldn't buy with my Roth through sharebuilder. Anyone have any luck purchasing in any sort of tax advantaged account?

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Ok I have to admit I thought this would be a lot more bullish for the price if bitcoin because it's a safe haven for big investors who aren't that tech savvy to get in & get themselves a piece of the bitcoin pie.
I know it's still very early days for a new business/corporation but I can't help but admit that yes, I'm disappointed.
Come on GBTC prove me wrong, do something positive to the price ASAP.

[phoenix1]

Ok I have to admit I thought this would be a lot more bullish for the price if bitcoin because it's a safe haven for big investors who aren't that tech savvy to get in & get themselves a piece of the bitcoin pie.
I know it's still very early days for a new business/corporation but I can't help but admit that yes, I'm disappointed.
Come on GBTC prove me wrong, do something positive to the price ASAP.

I think the premium is the problem - it's too high. Why is it so? Because of the structure of the fund, that new buyers can only buy from long-term holders, who have no desire to sell at these prices after holding for more than a year. I can't see this changing any time soon TBH
The XBT structure is a much better product as it is new issuance at close to NAV.

[inca]

Ok I have to admit I thought this would be a lot more bullish for the price if bitcoin because it's a safe haven for big investors who aren't that tech savvy to get in & get themselves a piece of the bitcoin pie.
I know it's still very early days for a new business/corporation but I can't help but admit that yes, I'm disappointed.
Come on GBTC prove me wrong, do something positive to the price ASAP.

COIN is what matters!

[phoenix1]

Ok I have to admit I thought this would be a lot more bullish for the price if bitcoin because it's a safe haven for big investors who aren't that tech savvy to get in & get themselves a piece of the bitcoin pie.
I know it's still very early days for a new business/corporation but I can't help but admit that yes, I'm disappointed.
Come on GBTC prove me wrong, do something positive to the price ASAP.

COIN is what matters!

Yeh, a true ETF, not a jumping-through-hoops fudge. MUCH more interesting to investors.
Only then will we find out what real demand is. I would not get to downbeat about this one LFC ... its just not the real deal - it's supermarket Cola selling for more than Coke.

[derpinheimer]

Odd:

Bid Price
CSTI   28.15   100   10:28

Ask Price
CSTI   29.25   1000   10:28

[Cconvert2G36]

Odd:

Bid Price
CSTI   28.15   100   10:28

Ask Price
CSTI   29.25   1000   10:28

Odd how? This is what market makers do. Buck and change to be made on the spread.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

GBTC is still overpriced. The volume would probably increase if it was closer to exchange prices.

I agree wholeheartedly. And I hope once it happens

[derpinheimer]

Odd:

Bid Price
CSTI   28.15   100   10:28

Ask Price
CSTI   29.25   1000   10:28

Odd how? This is what market makers do. Buck and change to be made on the spread.

Well there's not really any volume to support market making profits, and also the volatility would make it risky in the first place. Of course it's settled now, but at the time they placed that bid it was still not showing a clearly defined path.

[Fabrizio89]

GBTC was just another hype shit that didn't even work, this market is collapsing, nobody wants to get in at these prices.

[kingama]

GBTC was just another hype shit that didn't even work, this market is collapsing, nobody wants to get in at these prices.

Now, now. GBTC seems to have settled at around $29. If there's any reason to believe GBTC should trade at a premium, then this might reflect that. Of course, I'm still waiting for a rise in Bitcoin proper with a corresponding rise in GBTC with significant volume to confirm. It's really too early to draw conclusions. But, yes it was a bit hyped.

[JorgeStolfi]

GBTC was just another hype shit that didn't even work, this market is collapsing, nobody wants to get in at these prices.

Now, now. GBTC seems to have settled at around $29. If there's any reason to believe GBTC should trade at a premium, then this might reflect that. Of course, I'm still waiting for a rise in Bitcoin proper with a corresponding rise in GBTC with significant volume to confirm. It's really too early to draw conclusions. But, yes it was a bit hyped.

Could it be that all buyers so far have been by people who already held BIT shares?

* They know what BIT is, few other people do.
* They believe that bitcoin will someday be worth a lot more than now.
* They are prepared to wait many years for that.
* They probably bought other shares for 400-800 $/BTC, so 290 is cheap.
* Buying more of something is an easier decision to make than buying the first one.
* They may be tempted to buy just to keep the price from falling.

[jason miner]

ever since watching the GBTC launch, I've been even more excited to see some real exposure to actual, liquid, regulated markets. This could be interesting.

[chmod755]

Instead of GBTC moving down the market is going up and getting closer to GBTC value.