GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[Cconvert2G36]

So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more, so 697,000 shares able to be sold as GBTC. So far only ~1500 shares have have been sold OTC, or 0.2% of BIT shares owned by hodlers are willing to sell at the equiv of $650/btc... These guys take "strong hands" to a whole 'nother level.

[1715253241]

1715253241

[1715253241]

1715253241

[1715253241]

1715253241

[1715253241]

1715253241

[1715253241]

1715253241

[minerpumpkin]

Well its open, but there's no trading.

I know. 125 shares (~12,5 bitcoins) have been traded today, but, if I understand this correctly, on that page they only really count trades that are at least 100 shares (~10 bitcoins) large and there has not been a single such trade today. Therefore there has not been an opening trade.

Really? That would actually explain why there seems to be zero action displayed by that page. I find it highly convoluted and not very helpful, to begin with. Can't we get a decent API that can be implemented into Bitcoinwisdom or Bitcoinity or something?

[JorgeStolfi]

So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more

According to the data colelcted by @jl2012, most shares were sold before May/2014, so almost all of them must be mature now. (In one of the filed douments they say that there were some redemptions, and therefore some additional buys not recorded in that table; but, IIRC, they were less than 10% of the total, maybe less than 1%.)

[minerpumpkin]

So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more

According to the data colelcted by @jl2012, most shares were sold before May/2014, so almost all of them must be mature now. (In one of the filed douments they say that there were some redemptions, and therefore some additional buys not recorded in that table; but, IIRC, they were less than 10% of the total, maybe less than 1%.)

That also implies that those shares were bough at $400+. It truly isn't really a surprise that this few people are actually willing to sell their shares at current prices, and at best sell them at a large markup.

[chriswen]

So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more

According to the data colelcted by @jl2012, most shares were sold before May/2014, so almost all of them must be mature now. (In one of the filed douments they say that there were some redemptions, and therefore some additional buys not recorded in that table; but, IIRC, they were less than 10% of the total, maybe less than 1%.)

That also implies that those shares were bough at $400+. It truly isn't really a surprise that this few people are actually willing to sell their shares at current prices, and at best sell them at a large markup.

That's false.  People don't hold just because they bought at a higher price.

As for the difference in price.  GBTC is not exactly Bitcoin.  There's some more value in it for certain people.  And supply is quite limited compared to Bitcoin and there could be relatively more demand for it.

[mmortal03]

That's false.  People don't hold just because they bought at a higher price.

For sure. Most people like to buy high and sell low. /sarcasm

[BitCoinMadness]

how can we short GBTC?

You can't.

I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids.

Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now.

[lay785]

how can we short GBTC?

You can't.

I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids.

Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now.

As an insurance plan for whenever they allow shorts you can calculate:

 (12 month interest fees for borrowing shares to short + price of buying new shares at current rates) as your cost.

Sort of like a 12 month arbitrage plan.

[minerpumpkin]

how can we short GBTC?

You can't.

I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids.

Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now.

Isn't it kind of crazy to short an asset with such a low liquidity? I mean mostly actually offering the option to short such an asset. How do you enforce margin-calls, etc. if there aren't enough shares to be bought/sold at reasonable prices, to begin with???

[damnek]

how can we short GBTC?

You can't.

I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids.

Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now.

Isn't it kind of crazy to short an asset with such a low liquidity? I mean mostly actually offering the option to short such an asset. How do you enforce margin-calls, etc. if there aren't enough shares to be bought/sold at reasonable prices, to begin with???

I got burned pretty bad this way with GPRO, the price just kept going higher because of shorts being margin called while shares were still locked up.

[RoadTrain]

So there's 1,394,600 outstanding shares at the end of April. Being overly conservative, let's say 50% of those are held for 12 months or more

According to the data colelcted by @jl2012, most shares were sold before May/2014, so almost all of them must be mature now. (In one of the filed douments they say that there were some redemptions, and therefore some additional buys not recorded in that table; but, IIRC, they were less than 10% of the total, maybe less than 1%.)

That also implies that those shares were bough at $400+. It truly isn't really a surprise that this few people are actually willing to sell their shares at current prices, and at best sell them at a large markup.

I suppose there's significant amount of shares bought under current GBTC prices. Even so, almost no one sold, despite it being an instant profit (you can sell for $650 currently). Considering this long downtrend, it could be wise to lock-in some profits, and even possibly buy back lower when prices converge.

[minerpumpkin]

how can we short GBTC?

You can't.

I don't think one can go short yet. That constraint should get lifted one month from the date it started trading. There are probably a few hedge funders salivating at the opportunity to short those crazy-high bids.

Also, there is probably a lot of interest from accredited investors to go directly to the trust and buy these shares at par. Those shares in turn will be available for trading in the open markets a year from now.

Isn't it kind of crazy to short an asset with such a low liquidity? I mean mostly actually offering the option to short such an asset. How do you enforce margin-calls, etc. if there aren't enough shares to be bought/sold at reasonable prices, to begin with???

I got burned pretty bad this way with GPRO, the price just kept going higher because of shorts being margin called while shares were still locked up.

I just looked up the chart for GPRO, didn't follow that stock, actually. I bet you're talking about the rally in September 2014, right? Quite a decent rise. Was it really just because shorts were being squeezed!??!

[bad trader]

I came across this link:
http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229



Apparently someone paid 200 USD for 0.1 BTC.

[bobabouey2]

Nice chunk of the 65s taken out:  http://quotes.freerealtime.com/dl/frt/M?IM=quotes&type=Time%26Sales&SA=quotes&symbol=GBTC&qm_page=93229

[jerk]

nice highest volume yet

[minerpumpkin]

nice highest volume yet

Yeah, I was already thinking that the volume wouldn't go up anymore anytime soon. But it does now look like GBTC really is back in action. Wouldn't have expected many trades at all. In my opinion this is going very well so far!

[jerk]

nice highest volume yet

Yeah, I was already thinking that the volume wouldn't go up anymore anytime soon. But it does now look like GBTC really is back in action. Wouldn't have expected many trades at all. In my opinion this is going very well so far!

Now over 2k on volume! with the rise on the other exchanges it feels like we're sitting on a powder keg!

[Alley]

I'm sure most shareholders didn't jump to transfer there shares the first day.  I'm sure everyday more shareholders are completing the process.

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

nice highest volume yet

hopefully for a long time !

[Cconvert2G36]

Nice little jolt of volume today, asks getting more "reasonable", all good. Now if you BIT hodlers can add another digit to that volume this thing will start having some real relevance.