May 17th to May 30th diff adjustment thread with promo. Picks closed

[alh]

I'll take -1.76% ro -2.00% if picks are still open.

[1714971323]

1714971323

[1714971323]

1714971323

[1714971323]

1714971323

[1714971323]

1714971323

[philipma1957]

 

picks will stay open to block  10:00 PM     EST May 25th about ½  hours.



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.36%)


Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot  and are open





-1.76% to -2.00%    alh


-1.26% to -1.50%    TheAnalogKid
-1.01% to -1.25%    philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00%    Mikestang
-0.51% to -0.75%    kenscho
-0.26% to -0.50%    Jamphone
-0.01% to -0.25%    EMIF

+0.01% to +0.25%  tlhIwI
+0.26% to +0.50%  zebedee  
+0.51% to +0.75%  valkir
+0.76% to +1.00%  gallery2000 note I switched to this since jonnybravo0311 had picked your pick already
+1.01% to +1.25%  jonnybravo0311  
+1.26% to +1.50%  notlist3d
+1.51% to +1.75%  Biodom
+1.76% to +2.00% edonkey
+2.01% to +2.25% mavericklm
+2.26% to +2.50% SunnyIgor
+2.51% to +2.75% davejh
+2.76% to +3.00% RoadStress
+3.01% to +3.25% akashamar
+3.26% to +3.50% solstoce
+3.51% to +3.75% tertius393
+3.76% to +4.00% ezeminer

+5.01% to +5.25% wpt1wpt  


+6.26% to +6.50% Kexkey




About 17 minutes left.    and I see a few spots that could be winners.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   (-1.36%)


Some one going to grab one of the negatives before we close?



-1.51% to -1.75%  or -2.01% to -2.25%  have a shot

[philipma1957]

 current real number is -1.95%

about 2 or 3 minutes to go.


here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
for today

https://blockchain.info/blocks

358028  23:47
357888    0:02
 
141 blocks made   a -3

grand total is -24

with 1204 made  so   1204/1228 =  0.98045 - 1 =   -0.01954   which is:

 (-1.95%)  true real time number.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

(-1.36%)

[judypug1956]

So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?

[philipma1957]

So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?

suchmoon provides the prize money  so he has final say.

But we did give a lot of extra time.  So I would guess it is closed.

[suchmoon]

So it is 10:18 PM the 25th are we closed?

suchmoon provides the prize money  so he has final say.

But we did give a lot of extra time.  So I would guess it is closed.

I think let's consider it closed.

[notlist3d]

I find it interesting were getting a negative number.  I don't think there is any new coins to attribute it to.  Price is hanging in high 230's.

I'm wondering if just luck or if summer is taking effect.  I was thinking summer we might see some old gear drop off (existing dragons,  etc).  But I'm not really sure what to expect with difficulty moving so slow. 

[philipma1957]

we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

@notlist not sure what I will be writing come Sept 20-25

hard to think diff will be 55.5 bill  and price 248 that week but maybe the builders of gear realize that the big boys are going to put a chip every where you can think.  If I were bitfury ,knc, bitmaintech ,avalon, sfards  and I thought 21 and quallcom  were going to sell routers all over the world with 1 watt 10gh chip in it  I might not want to build gear anymore.

  I might do exactly what is happening mine and stay stable.

100,000,000  10 gh routers             = 100 ph 
300,000,000  10 gh electric meters  = 300 ph
600,000,000  10 gh tv sets              =  600 ph

[notlist3d]

we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.

[suchmoon]

we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.

There needs to be either a significant hardware improvement (< 0.25W) before the halving or there will be a huge diff drop and/or price rise. As it stands now most hardware including the S5 would become unprofitable overnight.

[notlist3d]

we have 801 blocks to go.  and slipping lower (-1.72%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

price is 238

 would have to say the last 4 months have been stable price wise and difficulty wise.

from jan 20 to may 25th price has been 228 to 238  with a peak near 298

and diff was 43.9 Bill on jan 20th it is now 48.8 Bill

Pretty smooth for 4 months.

I wonder what the next 4 months will bring?

I'm thinking we will see new gear sometime within it.  But I could be very wrong on that.  New gear/chips has slowed down to a crawl with low btc to blame in my opinion.  I think the companies broke the cycle of new gear and are enjoying using the old gear for a little extra and slow the R/D down a little (although some could have chips or something up there sleeve, waiting for right moment to launch).

I just don't see near the hardware expansion it seemed like we were always doing.  And eventually halving will come into effect and could be scaring some off.  I'm unsure how halving will be done with existing miners.

There needs to be either a significant hardware improvement (< 0.25W) before the halving or there will be a huge diff drop and/or price rise. As it stands now most hardware including the S5 would become unprofitable overnight.

I could also be looking to far in advance.  But I think having could be coming into play with low btc price.   

Companies can do R/D now with not rushing and spending smart as btc price is low.   And really releasing the < .25 W  if the hardware companies can save till having could allow them to transition very easily without much profit loss with new efficiency.

I think we will see a few before having, but I don't think we will see a huge push.  Which ultimately is good for all this old gear we all got much lower difficulty then most of us thought we would have for past few months.

[valkir]

Pretty sure some companie have low w/gh device but will keep them.
Bitmain can actually right now do 0.3 with th bm1384 so I guess they just wait and slow down the RnD.
Home mining will be harder to do.
 

[notlist3d]

Pretty sure some companie have low w/gh device but will keep them.
Bitmain can actually right now do 0.3 with th bm1384 so I guess they just wait and slow down the RnD.
Home mining will be harder to do.
 

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

Morning Bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    48,807,487,245
Estimated Next Difficulty:    48,460,500,339 (-0.71%)
Adjust time:    After 747 Blocks, About 5.3 days
Hashrate(?):    329,610,766 GH/s

And price hanging around 238.

[suchmoon]

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

[notlist3d]

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

The best time as far as ROI in 3 months was GPU's.  You could get them paid for and there was still a gaming market that kept used prices nice if you ever sold.

Yes with asic's its not a bad thing they are not being thrown away.  But I would still love to have my 3 month ROI back.

[Mikestang]

BTC price has been fairly stable for weeks now, very interesting.

I'm about to power down some of my mining for the summer, it's getting too hot in my home office.

[philipma1957]

Sadly that is the trend.  The 3 month ROI is no longer that is for sure.

I don't think that's sad. ROI in 3 months would probably mean you'd have to throw the hardware away after 3 months. Now I'm sure my S3s will reach their 1-year anniversary and they have ROIed 200%+ without even including the resale value.

my 3 little s-3's will mine until 2016.   I have a low cost for them 2.4 cents winter 3.2 cents summer.  only problem is max power I can burn is 900-1000 watts

they have mined since july of 2014 batch 1 units.

[TheAnalogKid]

I speculate that part of the reason things are pretty stable is simply the fact that there is no faster tech coming about soon, and no one _has_ to replace their gear to keep pace.

End of last summer the arms race was booming - many new miner hardware tech came about - I went from S1 to Terraminer to S3 within a period of 4 months, each with a different chipset and better, more power efficient.  But, I HAD to, in order to keep up with the diff jumps.  It was expensive, but back then coin was also at $600, which meant I could mine and turn that around for more gear and infrastructure costs for less.

Now my latest gear has been in place since January - S5's and SP31/35 units.  Since then the diff has adjusted a total of around 15-20% in over 5 months, instead of in 5 weeks.  I haven't had to upgrade anything to keep pace with growing diff, and my miners are still very viable and profitable.  In fact they're probably making more now even after the 20% diff increases, since they're now paid off and fully positive ROI has been achieved.

Part of it is the fact that you can't buy any more SPTech gear, so there's no new gear coming out from them.  Bitmain has S5 and S4+, but with the price of BTC, they're really not selling much.  I believe it's related to the price, and the upcoming halving also has an effect.  People may very well be just hanging on to what we have now as they possibly see themselves being out of the game in less than a year.  Who wants to spend a ton of money R&D'ing new gear which can take many months, for what could be very little profit return with coin so low.  If I'm a large mine, and my gear is still very profitable now as it was almost 6 months ago, why would I want to rip it all out for a very marginal increase in profit, and on top of that have to pay back all that hardware I just bought, when I'm still running perfectly fine on what I have.

I agree with a lot of Phil's previous statements - if coin goes up, people power on and chase that profit.  If diff goes up and coin doesn't, gear gets turned off and we dip the next cycle.  There's just not a price point right now that's conducive to profit, especially with summer coming and many places with higher prices for electricity coupled with the need to have even more cooling to offset the extra ambient temps from summer.

[philipma1957]

here go to http://btc.blockr.io/charts

171 on 5-17-2015  most about 95 of the blocks were last adjustment.  bitcoinwisdom still uses them for the guess in the future.

so above is 27 over norm of 144 for the day,  but only 10 for the 'real' count this adjustment.

143 5-18  -1        +9 running count
138 5-19  -6        +3
138 5-20  -6         -3
153 5-21 +9        +12
144 5-22   0        +12
110 5-23  -34      -22
145 5-24  +1       -21
141 5-25  -3        -24
144 5-26   0        -24


about 1353 made we should be 1377

1353/1377 =  0.98257   - 1 =  -0.017429  or  (-1.743%)  real time number


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

663 blocks left    (-1.43%)


Once again not much change price at 238 usd

[notlist3d]

I don't know how everyone else feels.  But I am pretty happy with it looking like a negative.  it is a nice suprise to me.

We still are having trouble getting in 240's and staying there.  A little bump in price would be nice.