Will AI end online poker?

[Gronthaing]

I saw a thing in the news about a recent contest pitting computer AI against professional poker players. The people won, but just barely. Some of the payers were saying that they thought AI could get so good that it would end online poker. They argued that in the future bots will almost guarantee a win and humans would be at such a disadvantage that it would not be worth the gamble. Is that right? I don't know much about poker, but do you think this would happen?


Here it is in the L.A. Times
http://www.latimes.com/nation/great-reads/la-na-c1-claudico-poker-20150521-story.html#page=1

I think computers can already beat players in fixed limit betting poker.  The problem is no limit betting is such a complex game.  Many bots have been built that can win in low stakes NL games online but none that win in tougher games afaik.  Its only a matter of time though and its pretty interesting to see what the millions of poker players will do when the games end.

A new game will become popular most likely.

Maybe Go. It is a perfect information game. So computers should win. But larger board games have too many options for that to be possible. For now at least.

Yes it will happen. In chess it is already reality. The world champion only has a chance against a not so good AI that fits his style. He gets the source code 3 months before the event, so that he can analyse everything. And then he looses.

So what? Poker will get a game of nerds coding AIs against security expert Nerds who check if a player is AI or human.
I have some open source chess programs. Would like to get some open source poker AIs. I would like to open an Bitcoin/Altcoin casino, but not in Germany. I have to leave the country.

Chess is a game of skill where ideally you need to plan moves in advance whereas poker is a game of chance down to the luck of the draw. The computer can't know what cards your opponents have either. I can't see how a computer would be any better than a human at it really.

Luck plays a part. True. But all the possibilities are still limited. And over the course of many games luck evens out. If the computer plays very well consistently it will win more often than not. And computers can bluff too making it even harder.

[grendel25]

Absolutely, yes.  And it won't be too long.  However, there is a caveat:  Online poker sites can adapt to overcome the AI threat and this actually wouldn't be too hard to do.  However, it could mean an inconvenience or privacy intrusion to online gamblers.  So anonymity, which is probably something online poker players love, may be decremented.

[Gronthaing]

Absolutely, yes.  And it won't be too long.  However, there is a caveat:  Online poker sites can adapt to overcome the AI threat and this actually wouldn't be too hard to do.  However, it could mean an inconvenience or privacy intrusion to online gamblers.  So anonymity, which is probably something online poker players love, may be decremented.

How can sites adapt to AI? Or anyone using bots to play? Don't think you can stop that. Unless sites demand players have a camera on all the time. And are able to see every move to prevent them using other computers or something. But most won't accept that.

[SyGambler]

It's impossible by a bot to beat a poker player unless this bot knows player's cards
poker is the game of people , it's not chess
the bot may beat an ABC player but it's impossible to beat a shark that changes gears every couple of hands

[Xiaoxiao]

The only thing bad about bots is that they don't tilt and dump.  But they have no chance vs a good player in long run, especially if good player knows it's a bot.

[Gronthaing]

@SyGambler, Xiaoxiao bots already win at one version of poker. Heads-up limit texas hold'em http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/texas-hold-em-mastered-in-months-by-computer-with-no-wrong-moves This version has less options. So computers can more easily calculate the best strategy to win. The other versions are more complicated so there aren't bots for that yet. But I don't see why that would be impossible to do. Or why bots can't take other players strategies into account to win more easily. Might take too long to do with current computers. But should be possible.

[chriswen]

I don't really think AI will end online poker.

Comparing poker to chess and backgammon does not make sense as those games you can just calculate all moves.

With poker it is quite easy to calculate odds and nash equilibriums.

But the game is more than that.  It is about strategy.  Your implied odds as a bot mean different things depending on the players strategy.  And their optimal strategy is dependant on your strategy.  And they don't know your strategy and you don't know their strategy.

There is not really a winning strategy with poker.  You have to know what the strategy of the opponent to make a winning strategy.  The good players change their strategies all the time.

And people also talk about the luck factor being a reason why poker AI can't beat humans.  I think that is false.  A winning AI should be able to keep playing and while poker does have high variance it'll eventually be able to be profitable if it has a real edge.

[chriswen]

@SyGambler, Xiaoxiao bots already win at one version of poker. Heads-up limit texas hold'em http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/texas-hold-em-mastered-in-months-by-computer-with-no-wrong-moves This version has less options. So computers can more easily calculate the best strategy to win. The other versions are more complicated so there aren't bots for that yet. But I don't see why that would be impossible to do. Or why bots can't take other players strategies into account to win more easily. Might take too long to do with current computers. But should be possible.

But players strategies aren't static.  A good player needs to shift strategies.

[SyGambler]

@SyGambler, Xiaoxiao bots already win at one version of poker. Heads-up limit texas hold'em http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/texas-hold-em-mastered-in-months-by-computer-with-no-wrong-moves This version has less options. So computers can more easily calculate the best strategy to win. The other versions are more complicated so there aren't bots for that yet. But I don't see why that would be impossible to do. Or why bots can't take other players strategies into account to win more easily. Might take too long to do with current computers. But should be possible.

even heads up
the bot can beat a bad player but he can't beat sharks
good players always change gears
changing gears isn't just to change your strategy , changing gears means to change the way u bet , to change the position that u play more hands on it , to change your possible ranges
and it also means to move from loose to tight and from tight to loose
it's hard to predict the good players moves

that's why Daniel Negreanu said : poker is a game of people , and there is no way that a computer could beat a good player ( unless there is cheating of course )

[Gronthaing]

@SyGambler, Xiaoxiao bots already win at one version of poker. Heads-up limit texas hold'em http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/texas-hold-em-mastered-in-months-by-computer-with-no-wrong-moves This version has less options. So computers can more easily calculate the best strategy to win. The other versions are more complicated so there aren't bots for that yet. But I don't see why that would be impossible to do. Or why bots can't take other players strategies into account to win more easily. Might take too long to do with current computers. But should be possible.

But players strategies aren't static.  A good player needs to shift strategies.

May be true. Maybe that is why computers haven't won in other types of poker. But wouldn't that mean heads-up limit texas hold'em is fundamentally different from those other types? More than just players having less options during the game. I don't think that is true.

@SyGambler don't think it matters if it's playing a bad player or a shark. The bot Cepheus solved the heads-up limit game. The strategy is supposed to be perfect. Or did someone beat it? Haven't heard of it. Or that it didn't really find the solution to the game.

[bitbaby]

I don't think Chess Bots can be compared to Poker Bots. Chess is all based on skills and Poker to some extent is based on luck. I don't see AI ending online poker at all.

I have played with some bots on a few BTC poker sites previously and they got shut down, may be they weren't as developed as they might get in future but I still think they can be defeated.

[shanem]

Poker is a game of luck.
It is unlikely the computer can win humans consistently unless the AI knows the cards the other players have.

[sherbyspark]

Poker is a game of luck.
It is unlikely the computer can win humans consistently unless the AI knows the cards the other players have.

Not true, Poker does have a big component of skill in it. Thats why you have the likes of famous good players final tabling more often . The reason a bot has the edge is because the bot is able to make the right decisions at right time, which gives them the edge over other players. However there are always players who can beat bots as well.

[Slark]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for the responses. I can see how it is hard to instruct a computer what to do when playing a human mind.

It is hard, but it is no impossible. It's just the matter of time when we will have bots which can easily pass Turing test. Then it would be impossible to know if you are playing vs real man or machine.
But good thing is that it only affects online games, live casinos still will be unaffected and let's keep it that way.

[Xiaoxiao]

AI won't end online poker... legislation crippled it.

[RodeoX]

This seems a little bit related. A new learning robot. It learns how to do things by trying. Here it is figuring out how to assemble things. I think AI could already beat me at poker, but this guy looks like he will soon be a better dealer as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeVppkoloXs

[asuryan180]

Nice thought experiment, They will surly be good and able to beat a lot of poker players but the thing we have to remember is to win MTT's you need not only the discipline, math, luck etc more than anything you need the skill and the 'ballz' a big part of that emphasis on ballz! Last I checked AI does not have them, they can't be taught to risk everything in the last part of a 8 hour game on a total bluff. Saying that they will be well equipped to sit and grind cash tables all day or grind MTT's and just get paid but get in the pay a lot, the winner will always be human though.

[andolini82]

I saw a thing in the news about a recent contest pitting computer AI against professional poker players. The people won, but just barely. Some of the payers were saying that they thought AI could get so good that it would end online poker. They argued that in the future bots will almost guarantee a win and humans would be at such a disadvantage that it would not be worth the gamble. Is that right? I don't know much about poker, but do you think this would happen?


Here it is in the L.A. Times
http://www.latimes.com/nation/great-reads/la-na-c1-claudico-poker-20150521-story.html#page=1

In my oppinion, not only on poker but Ai or even a robot will take place on all job in our real word..