What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

the price is too stable now to go up to $600! It's unrealistic. The time  of to the moons is gone

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[QuestionAuthority]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

the price is too stable now to go up to $600! It's unrealistic. The time  of to the moons is gone

I dunno, it's already up to $285 when just two months ago it was it was $270. At that rate it will only take 8.33 years to be back at $1,000. LOL

[Erdogan]

I would not be surprised if the price rises as a consequence of the halving, or may be some time before it. So even if the halving does not change the supply, the speculation of future price includes what others think, so if one speculator thinks it doesn't matter, he might believe that other think it matters...

To expand about what supply and demand is in the market sense, the supply is what someone has and offers for a price on the market, and the demand is what others decide they want to buy for a certain price. Taking demand as an example, it can be expressed as a vector (two numbers) the price and the amount. You see this as the meme "if it goes to 120, I'll buy more, and if it goes to 100, I'll max out my credit card and buy all the coins..." So someone, you or me, might have a plan to buy some coins, and you decide to buy 2 if you can get them for 286.41 (one dollar less then the last price on finex at this moment). Then in your life, a few economic events happened:

1) Your salary appeared on your bank statement, and you have quite a few dollars.

2) Heck, it is 500 more than you expected?? Oh, I already paid off that credit card bill of 499 a few days ago, and I forgot it. Maybe 3 coins, not two...

3) Wife: My mother just called and invited us up to their place, it is beautiful there, and I don't like those long flights and sitting on a beach for two weeks anyway, I think we should go for it. (And you think, ah, thats a few thousand saved for a vacation, I think I can buy 6).

4) Dad, my phone works again, I just had to restart it and update the apps.

5) You just saw the price climbed 2 dollars, but what the heck, I just saw a video explaining the glory of bitcoin in country X, so I just buy 8 for what is currently on offer.

The price vectors constantly change in a persons mind, and when you add vectors of the same price, and put the vectors with other prices side by side, you get something that resembles the bid curve displayed on bitcoinwisdom, except it is an unseen curve, constantly changing, the aggregate of all demand vectors for all the people on earth.

The ask curve is something like it for people who might want to sell for a certain price.

The money quantity has some significance, because the more coins exist, the more you might think is on offer, but, not true if everybody wants to hold until they can obtain a much higher price.

[pitham1]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

the price is too stable now to go up to $600! It's unrealistic. The time  of to the moons is gone

I dunno, it's already up to $285 when just two months ago it was it was $270. At that rate it will only take 8.33 years to be back at $1,000. LOL

~4x in 8 years isn't too bad.
A lot of people (non-bitcoiners) will be happy with that kind of return.

[BillyBobZorton]

I think once the goverment abolishes physical money, people will naturally search for alternatives and will find Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the first thing that shows up in Google when you search anything related to that. The foundation is already there, we just need to let it develop.
The halving will be a nice pump for the people already in, but I dont think it will have any impact on mainstream adoption. Like I said before, mainstream adoption may happen when physical money is no more, and thats sooner than most expect.

[QuestionAuthority]

If the price doubles just before the reward drop then possibly nothing happens. The miners will effectively have the same revenue they have today and can continue to happily mine away. If the price does not go to $600 or above then we can expect to see a bunch of people stop mining as their mining costs will remain the same but their revenue will be cut in half.

the price is too stable now to go up to $600! It's unrealistic. The time  of to the moons is gone

I dunno, it's already up to $285 when just two months ago it was it was $270. At that rate it will only take 8.33 years to be back at $1,000. LOL

~4x in 8 years isn't too bad.
A lot of people (non-bitcoiners) will be happy with that kind of return.

$1,000 invested in an S&P 500 index fund in 2007 would be worth $6,820 today (almost 7x return), but the same $1,000 invested in the top 10 performing stocks like Celgene Corporation or Qualcomm would be worth $98,000. That's nearly 100x return.  Needless to say, I won't be happy with a 4x return on a super risky investment in 8 years.

[foxbitcoin]

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

[odolvlobo]

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.

Either way, the rise to $1100 didn't start until October, nearly a year later. The price was down or flat for the 6 months before that bubble started.

You might consider Nathaniel Poppers explanation that the presentations to Silicon Valley venture capitalists by Wences Cesares convinced a few to buy a bunch in February, triggering the bubble that popped in April.

[QuestionAuthority]

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

It actually went up above $1,200 but most of that can be attributed to the fat latte drinking asshole at MtGox and his famous price cheating bots, Willy and Markus.

[molecular]

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Let's look at last time:



I say it was halving-induced. Price went from $5 to ~$125, a 25x increase. So I think my earlier estimation of a 10x increase is conservative under these assumptions.

[yefi]

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Many seem to struggle with causality when the effects are not immediate. I should like to experiment on forum members by removing B12 from their diets, to demonstrate gradual and delayed effects.

[Amph]

that's it, it's not the halving itself that matter but the hype that will surround it, which will arguably boost the price to a good level

so it is clear that this hype will drive the increase long before and the effect will remain after the halving itself

look at litecoin halving, made the price x15 the same was with the last bitcoin halving x25(like he said) so it is legit to assume a 5k+ target this time

[ThatDGuy]

I was just looking at the chart for historical halvings, and noticed that the last having literally happened right before our meteoric rise to $1100. That's when the block reward went from 50 to 25. Is that coincidental?

Well, if you consider a two month delay as "right before", I suppose the halving did occur "right before" the rise in February to $260.

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Let's look at last time:



I say it was halving-induced. Price went from $5 to ~$125, a 25x increase. So I think my earlier estimation of a 10x increase is conservative under these assumptions.

Great graphic - and I agree.  Keep in mind that the halving happened in 2013 where we saw not just one but two insane bubbles.  I do agree that the halving had a major role in the first.

[odolvlobo]

look at litecoin halving, made the price x15 the same was with the last bitcoin halving x25(like he said) so it is legit to assume a 5k+ target this time

The recent rise in price of Bitcoin and other coins exactly coincide with the rise in price of Litecoin that you attribute to its halving. So, you must believe that the Litecoin halving is the cause of the recent rise in price of all the other coins.

Also, Litecoin went up dramatically at the same time Bitcoin rose around the time of its halving. Was the rise in price of Litecoin caused by the Bitcoin halving?

[molecular]

Keep in mind that the halving happened in 2013 where we saw not just one but two insane bubbles.  I do agree that the halving had a major role in the first.

Slight correction: the first halving happened on November 28th 2012 (see block 210,000).

[yefi]

Do you really think the effect of the halving will show itself 'exactly on' of 'right after' the reward halfing?

Of course the effect will be spread out to a period starting well before the halving itself end ending well after it.

Many seem to struggle with causality when the effects are not immediate. I should like to experiment on forum members by removing B12 from their diets, to demonstrate gradual and delayed effects.

Not I.  After X = because of X, scientifical fact!
I also enjoy extrapolating from a single point on a chart (only one reward halving has taken place to date).  Too many data points only cloud the big picture

We are a little, mischievous imp, aren't we? And you know what imps like best? Being strapped and gagged.

Rumpelstilstkin can attest to my mastery.

[roadbits]

Personally I think we'll see a bubble before the halving, and it'll pop a few months after, but my guess is just as good as anyone's.

[Miracal]

I strongly feel there will be a big bubble because of the halving hype, maybe bitcoin can also expect some media interest as bitcoin sale spike up, then the halving process will take its toll on the bitcoin price and then eventually the price will notice increase attracting even more people. That's when it matters, if things continue to go the way they are for bitcoin, then I expect btc to be less volatile too.

[slap]

When consensus is it will go up/bubble whatever, chances are it will not happen.

[QuestionAuthority]

When consensus is it will go up/bubble whatever, chances are it will not happen.

If we can bail Mark out of jail and get his bots working it might. lol