What do you expect from the halving in 2016?

[Benjig]

In theory, my money is not on risk if there is a fork. In fact I'll have double the money...
If I have 10 BTC in "Bitcoin Core chain", I'll have automatically 10 BTC in the new "Bitcoin XT chain".
The best you can do to not take risk, is not move any of the chains.
Of course, lots of problems will arise. Will signature campaigns pay in Core or XT? will the main merchants move their business to the new chain? it's madness..

[bitebits]

In theory, my money is not on risk if there is a fork. In fact I'll have double the money...
If I have 10 BTC in "Bitcoin Core chain", I'll have automatically 10 BTC in the new "Bitcoin XT chain".
The best you can do to not take risk, is not move any of the chains.
Of course, lots of problems will arise. Will signature campaigns pay in Core or XT? will the main merchants move their business to the new chain? it's madness..

Hehe, this makes me lol.
OP refers to the halving in mining reward, 12,5 btc per block instead of 25 btc.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

[pereira4]

In theory, my money is not on risk if there is a fork. In fact I'll have double the money...
If I have 10 BTC in "Bitcoin Core chain", I'll have automatically 10 BTC in the new "Bitcoin XT chain".
The best you can do to not take risk, is not move any of the chains.
Of course, lots of problems will arise. Will signature campaigns pay in Core or XT? will the main merchants move their business to the new chain? it's madness..

Hehe, this makes me lol.
OP refers to the halving in mining reward, 12,5 btc per block instead of 25 btc.

http://bitcoinclock.com/

He actually copypasted my comment from here lol

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1076332.msg11499287#msg11499287

What you need to know is, in theory, your money is not on risk if there is a fork. In fact you'll have double the money... it's funny but correct me if im wrong, thats what it is.
If you have 10 BTC in "Bitcoin Core chain", you'll have automatically 10 BTC in the new "Bitcoin XT chain".
The best you can do to not take risk, is not move any of the chains.
Of course, lots of problems will arise. Will signature campaigns pay in Core or XT? will the main merchants move their business to the new chain? it's madness tbh.

[DieJohnny]

If you at all think Bitcoin is like money, then the price WILL go up in value because new-money printing will be cut in half. There is no debating this if Bitcoin is at all like money.

Maybe the halving will tell us if Bitcoin is a money replacement or just a race to buy tulips.

[tyz]

Interesting statement. I have not seen it like that. Probably halving will be an indicator if Bitcoin is seen as a real store of value or just play money. If first holds, the price must go up short term after halving.

If you at all think Bitcoin is like money, then the price WILL go up in value because new-money printing will be cut in half. There is no debating this if Bitcoin is at all like money.

Maybe the halving will tell us if Bitcoin is a money replacement or just a race to buy tulips.

[odolvlobo]

Trick question:

If the inflation rate of the dollar dropped from 8% to 4%, what would happen to the value of a dollar?

The answer is that the value will drop by 4% over the next year.

Now, apply that to bitcoin:

When the inflation rate of bitcoin drops from 8% to 4% in 2016, what will happen to the value of a bitcoin?

[techgeek]

If you at all think Bitcoin is like money, then the price WILL go up in value because new-money printing will be cut in half. There is no debating this if Bitcoin is at all like money.

Maybe the halving will tell us if Bitcoin is a money replacement or just a race to buy tulips.

That tulips was a actual bubble.

So are you suggesting that its the same with bitcoin? cause the tulip prices fell drastic back in the day when they found more of them being available.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

[Natalia_AnatolioPAMM]

LOL 

lol, exactly my face when stuff like this happens

[Pab]

 I think it can rise price to even 500$-600$ very optimistic,than will be dump.Higher price maycause technology development and more competitive mining,now most of btc is mined in Chinaand China is dictating price

[bill gator]

I tend to think of block reward reductions as reductions in the sell pressures  btc rather than as a potential reason for lots of users to rush in and buy

[coinableS]

I tend to think of block reward reductions as reductions in the sell pressures  btc rather than as a potential reason for lots of users to rush in and buy

Yea the halving could stimulate half of what's needed and that's supply. The other half is demand which seems to be growing but the price shows otherwise. 12.5 BTC every ten minutes is still a lot though, but on the other hand a 50% reduction in supply is also a lot. It will be interesting to see if anything happens.

[DieJohnny]

If you at all think Bitcoin is like money, then the price WILL go up in value because new-money printing will be cut in half. There is no debating this if Bitcoin is at all like money.

Maybe the halving will tell us if Bitcoin is a money replacement or just a race to buy tulips.

That tulips was a actual bubble.

So are you suggesting that its the same with bitcoin? cause the tulip prices fell drastic back in the day when they found more of them being available.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Yes, I am suggesting that is exactly what we will find out

[Nagle]

Since the halving is a known future event, it should already be priced into the current price.

Miners are presumably planning in advance for the halving.  Right now, nobody should be buying hardware that won't make money after the halving.  A lot of older hardware will be shut down as no longer cost-effective.

[pooya87]

Trick question:

If the inflation rate of the dollar dropped from 8% to 4%, what would happen to the value of a dollar?

The answer is that the value will drop by 4% over the next year.

Now, apply that to bitcoin:

When the inflation rate of bitcoin drops from 8% to 4% in 2016, what will happen to the value of a bitcoin?

interesting.
but i find it wrong to compare dollar market to bitcoin market. dollar is way more stable than bitcoin.
bitcoin market has a lot of inexperienced bag holders that dump their coins with a bad news and jump in buying with a small good one. besides the whales that control the price can never control dollar price at "the same scale".

[Fakhoury]

Trick question:

If the inflation rate of the dollar dropped from 8% to 4%, what would happen to the value of a dollar?

The answer is that the value will drop by 4% over the next year.

Now, apply that to bitcoin:

When the inflation rate of bitcoin drops from 8% to 4% in 2016, what will happen to the value of a bitcoin?

interesting.
but i find it wrong to compare dollar market to bitcoin market. dollar is way more stable than bitcoin.
bitcoin market has a lot of inexperienced bag holders that dump their coins with a bad news and jump in buying with a small good one. besides the whales that control the price can never control dollar price at "the same scale".

Plus that bitcoin is a new technology and still a lot of work are into it and more will come for sure.

People is adpating it as well, but in a very slow motion.

Bitcoin is way underestimated right now.

[RappelzReborn]

Let's say we are one month away from the Halving block reward (25 BTC => 12.5 BTC) and the price 300$ , okey ?
Now Let's say that the demand stays the same and all stays the same (supply dosen't of course , gets halved) , shouldn't the price become 600$ per BTC ? logically it should be doubled , nah ?

[Amph]

Since the halving is a known future event, it should already be priced into the current price.

Miners are presumably planning in advance for the halving.  Right now, nobody should be buying hardware that won't make money after the halving.  A lot of older hardware will be shut down as no longer cost-effective.

it's possible that by the time the halving comes, the miners will be more efficient with their future 16 nm processing, and thus mantaining the hash power the same as it is right now, even after the halving will occurs,

so the price will remain the same but so the hash, not looking good indeed

Let's say we are one month away from the Halving block reward (25 BTC => 12.5 BTC) and the price 300$ , okey ?
Now Let's say that the demand stays the same and all stays the same (supply dosen't of course , gets halved) , shouldn't the price become 600$ per BTC ? logically it should be doubled , nah ?

yes, but like i said above, there is  the possibility that the hash will be half of what it is now, or that the hashpower remain the same because better miners will come out, and the price will also remain the same, this is one of the worst scenario, the worst ever is the dead of bitcoin of course

[damiano]

Just before the halving I expect a slight pump but nothing major and it won't last. What difference is a few coin a day not hitting the market going to make? Sell pressure will be reduced a small amount nothing  amazing though, time will tell won't it.

[odolvlobo]

Let's say we are one month away from the Halving block reward (25 BTC => 12.5 BTC) and the price 300$ , okey ?
Now Let's say that the demand stays the same and all stays the same (supply dosen't of course , gets halved) , shouldn't the price become 600$ per BTC ? logically it should be doubled , nah ?

No, because it is not a simple function where if the supply halves, the price doubles, and no because the supply of bitcoins continues to rise, only the supply of new bitcoins goes down by half.

[Sarthak]

What do you expect from the halving next year regarding price development of Bitcoin?

Currently, the price is very stable although there are created around 3k new Bitcoins every day. In my opinion, the price stability results by a constantly increase of demand. When the supply will be halved in 2016, the price should be grow linear if the current demand stays the same.

What do you think?

I always expect the worse! Bitcoin will die and we'll switch to a new cryptocurrency!